AI Model:

Evan Mobley—

CLE · C

PPG

18.3

RPG

8.9

APG

3.6

L5 PPG

23.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.3

18.3

23.6

RPG+2.1

8.9

11.0

APG-0.8

3.6

2.8

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG-0.1

1.9

1.8

UNDER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

18.5

BKN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BKN: 17 pts

DET

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DET: 18 pts

BOS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs BOS: 24 pts

PHI

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs PHI: 15 pts

ORL

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs ORL: 18 pts

DAL

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DAL: 29 pts

DAL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DAL: 18 pts

MIL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIL: 27 pts

CHI

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHI: 26 pts

NOP

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs NOP: 18 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 18.5STAKE

62%

REB

OVER 8.5STAKE

66%

AST

UNDER 4.5STAKE

69%

BLK

UNDER 2.5STAKE

71%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

60%

PRA

OVER 26.5STAKE

54%

R+A

OVER 12.5STAKE

63%

OVER 0.5

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.0

19.5

RPG

8.6

10.0

APG

3.0

2.3

vs ORL (H2H)12 games

PPG

15.3

RPG

8.1

APG

3.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Scottie Barnes	3	16	44%	-11.1%	medium
Paolo Banchero	4	14	59%	-2.9%	medium
Adem Bona	4	14	40%	-14.8%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	3	12	68%

Mobley’s rebound and block floor stays strong with Cleveland shorthanded

Evan Mobley is trending above his season scoring and rebounding baseline, with his last 5 at 23.6 PPG and 11.0 RPG compared to season marks of 18.3 and 8.9. The injury landscape matters here: Jarrett Allen is out, which should keep Mobley locked into a heavy frontcourt role, while Orlando is also missing multiple rotation pieces. Against Orlando this season, he averaged 15.33 PPG and 8.08 RPG across 12 games, so the matchup has not been a huge scoring ceiling spot even though his recent form is better.

Stat Trends

PPG

23.6(↑ from 18.3)

RPG

11.0(↑ from 8.9)

APG

2.8(↓ from 3.6)

Stocks

2.4(→ from 2.7)

Key Matchup

Orlando is missing Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, and Anthony Black, but the key defender data available does not provide a clear single matchup edge. Mobley’s prior 12-game average vs this opponent is 15.33 PPG and 8.08 RPG, which suggests the matchup has historically been more neutral than explosive for scoring.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Evan Mobley▼	Points	18.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		19	✗
Evan Mobley▼	Rebounds	8.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		9	✓
Evan Mobley▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	100%	3.5→4.5	6	✗
Evan Mobley▼	Blocks	2.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	60%		1	✓
Evan Mobley▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	40%	—	0	✗
Evan Mobley▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	50%	FLIP	1	✗
Evan Mobley▼	PRA	26.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	—	34	✓
Evan Mobley▼	R+A	12.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		15	✓
Evan Mobley▼	Double-Double	0.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

REB8.5OVER10%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

P+R28.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%▼

R+A12OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

P+A22UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

PTS18UNDER30%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST3UNDER1%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x8/2040%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PA2UNDER55%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 10x6/2030%▼

PRA33UNDER25%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

BLK0.5UNDER26%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA5UNDER27%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM2UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Evan Mobley

Rebounds OVER 8.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because Mobley’s season average is 8.9 RPG, his last-10 is 10.2 RPG, and Jarrett Allen being out should keep his rebounding role elevated. The line is also cheaper than his recent production, making it the most stable play on the board.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Paolo Banchero	4	14	41	52%	59%
Wendell Carter Jr.	3	12	17	64%	68%
Noah Penda	4	4	2	33%	33%
Desmond Bane	4	3	12	46%	46%
Moritz Wagner	4	3	9	50%	58%

pointsUNDER 18.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 18.3 PPG, and even with a strong last-5 stretch at 23.6, his 12-game vs-opponent average is only 15.33 PPG. The season baseline and head-to-head history both lean under this number.

reboundsOVER 8.566%MEDIUM

Mobley averages 8.9 RPG on the season and 10.2 RPG over his last 10, with Jarrett Allen out increasing frontcourt rebounding responsibility. The 8.5 line is below both season and recent production.

assistsUNDER 4.569%MEDIUM

His season mean is 3.59 APG and his last-5 is 2.8 APG, both below 4.5. Even with a stable minutes load, the recent assist profile does not support an over.

blocksUNDER 2.571%HIGH

Mobley averages 1.9 blocks per game on the season and 1.8 over his last 10, so 2.5 is a step above his typical output. His block rate is strong, but the line still sits above his baseline.

stealsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals per game on the season and 0.5 over the last 10, which keeps 0.5 reachable. This is a lower-confidence over, but the season mean supports it.

stocksOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

He averages 2.68 stocks on the season and 2.3 over the last 10, with recent games showing consistent defensive production. The combined blocks-plus-steals profile is strong enough to clear 2.5 more often than not.

praOVER 26.554%MEDIUM

His recent usage spike has pushed production well above season norms, and the last 5 show 23.6 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 2.8 assists. This is a volatile combo prop, so confidence stays moderate despite the recent form.

raOVER 12.563%MEDIUM

He combines 8.9 rebounds and 3.6 assists on the season, and his last 10 rebounding surge pushes this pairing closer to the over. With Allen out, Mobley’s rebound share should stay elevated.

double_doubleOVER 0.564%MEDIUM

Mobley is producing 11.0 rebounds per game over the last 5 and 10.2 over the last 10, while scoring 18.3 PPG on the season. That gives him solid double-double potential, especially with Jarrett Allen unavailable.

timelineUNDER 18.5 PTS