AI Model:

Donovan Mitchell—

CLE · SG

PPG

28.0

RPG

4.5

APG

5.8

L5 PPG

24.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.8

28.0

24.2

RPG+0.1

4.5

4.6

APG+0.2

5.8

6.0

SPG-0.1

1.5

1.4

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 29.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

29.5

CHA

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs CHA: 32 pts

OKC

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs OKC: 20 pts

NYK

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NYK: 23 pts

BOS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs BOS: 30 pts

PHI

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs PHI: 17 pts

ORL

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs ORL: 25 pts

DAL

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DAL: 24 pts

DAL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DAL: 26 pts

MIL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIL: 19 pts

NOP

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs NOP: 27 pts

Over 29.5

Under 29.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 29.5STAKE

67%

AST

OVER 5.5STAKE

61%

REB

OVER 4.5STAKE

55%

P+R

UNDER 34.5STAKE

58%

P+A

UNDER 35.5STAKE

56%

R+A

OVER 10.5STAKE

52%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

59%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

26.6

25.8

RPG

3.9

4.0

APG

5.6

6.2

vs ORL (H2H)16 games

PPG

27.1

RPG

4.4

APG

5.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
OG Anunoby	3	13	0%	-48.1%	medium
Pelle Larsson	3	11	83%	+18.6%	medium
Kelly Oubre Jr.	4	11	50%	-3.7%	medium
Anthony Black	2	10	67%

Mitchell’s usage stays elite, but the scoring number is a grind

Donovan Mitchell is still producing at an elite level with a season average of 28.0 PPG, 5.8 APG, and 4.5 RPG, but his recent scoring has cooled to 24.2 PPG over the last 5 and 24.3 over the last 10. His minutes remain strong at 33.5 season / 35.4 last 5, and the matchup context is favorable with multiple opponent absences and a home game where he has averaged 26.6 PPG. However, Orlando’s scoring suppression profile and Mitchell’s recent points trend suggest the market may be asking a bit too much on his higher point lines.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.2(↓ from 28.0)

APG

6.0(→ from 5.8)

RPG

4.6(→ from 4.5)

STL+BLK

1.6(→ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. Orlando’s team profile shows a 114.34 defensive rating and -0.238 scoring suppression, which leans against an easy scoring night even with the opponent missing several rotation pieces.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Donovan Mitchell▼	Points	29.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	28.5→29.5	42	✗
Donovan Mitchell▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	30%		3	✗
Donovan Mitchell▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		2	✗
Donovan Mitchell▼	P+R	34.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	—	44	✗
Donovan Mitchell▼	P+A	35.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	FLIP	45	✗
Donovan Mitchell▼	R+A	10.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	—	5	✗
Donovan Mitchell▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	40%		0	✓

ML Scout Analysis

REB3.5OVER21%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R29.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

P+A30.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)11/2055%▼

PTS25.5UNDER12%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

PRA36UNDER16%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

STL1.5UNDER12%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PA7UNDER46%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

FTA6.5UNDER8%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

AST5UNDER8%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%▼

3PM2UNDER28%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM6UNDER28%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Donovan Mitchell

Points UNDER 29.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest angle because Mitchell’s season scoring average is 28.03, but his last 5 and last 10 are both 24.2-24.3, well below the market. The matchup is not a full fade spot, yet the recent regression and Orlando’s defensive context make 29.5 a tough over to trust.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Anthony Black	2	10	8	50%	67%
Tristan da Silva	4	8	8	100%	133%
Desmond Bane	4	7	11	30%	35%
Jamal Cain	1	5	4	25%	25%
Jalen Suggs	3	5	2	17%	17%

pointsUNDER 29.567%MEDIUM

His season mean is 28.03, but the last 5 is down to 24.2 and the last 10 is 24.3, so the current scoring form is below this number. Orlando also carries a scoring suppression profile, making 29.5 a tougher ask despite his strong role.

assistsOVER 5.561%MEDIUM

Mitchell averages 5.82 assists on the season and 6.0 over the last 5, with 6.2 away and 5.47 at home. The line sits below both his season mean and recent form.

reboundsOVER 4.555%MEDIUM

He is at 4.52 rebounds for the season and 4.8 over the last 5, which keeps this near fair value. It’s not a strong edge, but the recent rebound trend supports the over slightly.

prUNDER 34.558%MEDIUM

His season averages project to about 32.55 PRA, while his recent scoring dip keeps the combined number from comfortably clearing 34.5. This is a higher-variance combo prop, so a cautious under is preferred.

paUNDER 35.556%MEDIUM

Mitchell’s season P+A is 33.82 and his recent P+A is 29.6, both below 35.5. With points trending down, the over needs a much better scoring outcome than his recent baseline.

raOVER 10.552%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists total is 10.32, essentially on the number, and recent production is slightly higher at 10.6. This is close, but the combo variance keeps confidence modest.

stealsUNDER 1.559%MEDIUM

He averages 1.5 steals on the season, but the line is asking for at least 2 to beat the over, and recent steals have been 1.4 over the last 5. The away split is strong, yet this remains a volatile category.

timelineUNDER 29.5 PTS