AI Model:

Desmond Bane▼

ORL · SG

PPG

20.4

RPG

4.2

APG

4.2

L5 PPG

17.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.0

20.4

17.4

RPG+0.2

4.2

4.4

APG-0.4

4.2

3.8

SPG+0.2

1.0

1.2

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

UNDER 24.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

24.5

MIN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIN: 30 pts

MIL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIL: 18 pts

CLE

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CLE: 35 pts

WAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs WAS: 22 pts

MIA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIA: 21 pts

ATL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ATL: 18 pts

OKC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs OKC: 16 pts

CHA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHA: 24 pts

LAL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAL: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs IND: 17 pts

Over 24.5

Under 24.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 24.5STAKE

73%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

66%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

63%

3PM

UNDER 2

60%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

71%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

78%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

UNDER 2

58%

P+R

UNDER 22.5STAKE

64%

P+A

OVER 23.5STAKE

58%

R+A

UNDER 10.5STAKE

69%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

22.2

24.4

RPG

4.1

3.9

APG

4.5

3.9

vs CLE (H2H)11 games

PPG

17.4

RPG

4.5

APG

3.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Derrick White	3	17	43%	-15.0%	medium
Mikal Bridges	4	16	59%	+8.0%	medium
Pelle Larsson	4	14	50%	-3.9%	medium
Aaron Nesmith	3	14	56%

Bane’s usage gets a boost, but Cleveland keeps the scoring ceiling in check

Desmond Bane comes in with a season line of 20.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 4.2 APG across 34.2 MPG, but his recent scoring has cooled to 17.4 PPG over the last 5. The minutes and role should stay strong with Anthony Black, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs all out, yet the matchup still leans tougher than average: Cleveland owns a 114.69 defensive rating, a 100 pace, and a 0.159 scoring suppression profile. His head-to-head history is also modest at 17.36 PPG in 11 games vs this opponent, so the projection is more balanced than his recent usage bump might suggest.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.4(↓ from 20.4)

RPG

4.4(→ from 4.2)

APG

3.8(↓ from 4.2)

Stocks

1.4(→ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

Cleveland’s defensive profile in the data points to a slower, more suppressive environment with a 114.69 defensive rating, 100 pace, and -0.159 scoring suppression. There is no specific defender matchup data to target beyond the listed defenders, so the best read is the team-level environment rather than an individual matchup.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Desmond Bane▼	Points	24.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	2/2	80%	23.5→24.5	17	✓
Desmond Bane▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		7	✗
Desmond Bane▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	80%		3	✗
Desmond Bane▼	3PM	2	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	70%		1	✓
Desmond Bane▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	70%		2	✗
Desmond Bane▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	—	80%	FLIP	0	✓
Desmond Bane▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	30%	FLIP	2	✓
Desmond Bane▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%	FLIP	2	✗
Desmond Bane▼	P+R	22.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	22.5→23.5	24	✗
Desmond Bane▼	P+A	23.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	FLIP	20	✗
Desmond Bane▼	R+A	10.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		10	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R25.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

P+A25.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Desmond Bane

Points UNDER 24.5HIGH

This is the strongest side because the season average is 20.4 PPG, the last-5 is only 17.4 PPG, and his head-to-head average vs this opponent is 17.36 PPG over 11 games. Cleveland’s slower pace and scoring suppression further support keeping him below 24.5.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Dean Wade	4	11	7	75%	88%
Sam Merrill	2	9	5	33%	33%
Donovan Mitchell	4	7	14	45%	50%
Jaylon Tyson	3	7	2	25%	25%
Lonzo Ball	2	5	3	33%	50%

pointsUNDER 24.573%HIGH

Season scoring sits at 20.4 PPG and his last-5 is even lower at 17.4 PPG. Against this opponent he has averaged 17.36 PPG in 11 games, and Cleveland’s 100 pace plus 0.159 scoring suppression makes the over harder to trust.

reboundsUNDER 4.566%MEDIUM

He averages 4.2 RPG on the season and 4.1 RPG over the last 5, both below the 4.5 line. Even with extra usage available, the rebounding profile is still more mid-range than strong.

assistsOVER 3.563%MEDIUM

His season average is 4.2 APG and his last-10 is 4.8 APG, which supports clearing 3.5. Orlando’s absences also increase creation responsibility, even though his last-5 dipped to 3.8 APG.

threesUNDER 260%MEDIUM

He averages 2.03 threes per game on the season, but the last-5 is down to 1.8 and the last-10 is 1.8 as well. With Cleveland’s three suppression noted in the data, the line is not especially comfortable for an over.

stealsUNDER 1.571%HIGH

He averages 1.0 steals on the season, but 1.5 is a high bar for a volatile category. His last-5 is 1.2, which is not enough to justify an aggressive over at this number.

blocksUNDER 0.578%HIGH

He averages just 0.4 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. That makes the under the clear side on a 0.5 line.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.49 stocks on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, so this is close to the threshold. Because the standard deviation is high relative to the mean, confidence stays modest.

turnoversUNDER 258%MEDIUM

He is sitting at 1.6 turnovers over the last 5 and 1.7 over the last 10, so a 2.0 line would be slightly above his recent baseline. Even with a larger role, this is not a strong over spot.

prUNDER 22.564%MEDIUM

His season PR is 24.6, but that is softened by a recent scoring dip and a tougher pace environment. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is safer than forcing an over here.

paOVER 23.558%MEDIUM

He averages 24.6 points plus assists across season-level production when combining 20.4 PPG and 4.2 APG. The extra usage from teammate absences helps, but the combo nature keeps confidence only medium.

raUNDER 10.569%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists total is 8.4, and his last-5 is 8.2, both below 10.5. This is a meaningful gap and makes the under the cleaner play.

timelineUNDER 24.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Bane’s usage gets a boost, but Cleveland keeps the scoring ceiling in check

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 24.5 PTS