AI Model:

Tre Johnson▲

WAS · SG

PPG

12.2

RPG

2.8

APG

2.0

L5 PPG

9.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.0

12.2

9.2

RPG-0.4

2.8

2.4

APG-0.4

2.0

1.6

SPG-0.6

0.6

0.0

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

HOU

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs HOU: 5 pts

ORL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs ORL: 9 pts

UTA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs UTA: 15 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 20 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 17 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 3 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 7 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 13 pts

DET

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DET: 11 pts

DET

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs DET: 12 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5STAKE

97%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

97%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

97%

3PM

UNDER 1.95

96%

STL

UNDER 0.5STAKE

95%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

95%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

95%

UNDER 2

93%

P+R

UNDER 20.5STAKE

96%

P+A

UNDER 19.5STAKE

96%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.4

12.7

RPG

3.0

2.3

APG

1.8

2.0

vs NYK (H2H)1 games

PPG

10.0

RPG

4.0

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kris Dunn	2	13	0%	-41.7%	low
Kon Knueppel	4	12	30%	-21.7%	medium
Desmond Bane	4	11	67%	+25.0%	medium
Jalen Pickett	2	9	0%

Tre Johnson’s scoring outlook is muted despite steady volume

Tre Johnson is listed OUT with a right foot injury, so his market props should be treated as unavailable rather than playable. Before the injury, his production had cooled recently, with 9.2 PPG over the last 5 compared with a 12.2 season average, while his last 10 at 11.2 and last 20 at 11.9 suggest a modest downward scoring trend. His season usage profile is still solid for a starting SG, but the combination of reduced recent scoring, a back-to-back spot for Washington, and New York’s defensive profile would have capped upside even if he were active.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.2(↓ from 12.2)

RPG

2.4(↓ from 2.8)

APG

1.6(↓ from 2.0)

3PM

1.4(↓ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson, and Mikal Bridges are listed in key_defenders, but there is no specific defender matchup data. New York’s opponent defense shows a 110.34 defensive rating and 100 pace, which points to a controlled environment rather than an easy fantasy spot.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Tre Johnson▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	97%HIGH	2/2	80%
Tre Johnson▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	97%HIGH	2/2	50%
Tre Johnson▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	97%HIGH	2/2	90%
Tre Johnson▼	3PM	1.95	UNDER	96%HIGH	1/2	50%
Tre Johnson▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	95%HIGH	—	70%
Tre Johnson▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	95%HIGH	—	70%
Tre Johnson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	95%HIGH	—	90%
Tre Johnson▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	93%HIGH	—	70%
Tre Johnson▼	P+R	20.5	UNDER	96%HIGH	2/2	80%
Tre Johnson▼	P+A	19.5	UNDER	96%HIGH	2/2	90%

ML Scout Analysis

PTS14.5UNDER29%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 9x3/2015%+29.4% edge▼

PRA18.5UNDER33%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x5/2025%+21.7% edge▼

P+A12.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER12%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%+20.4% edge▼

3PA5UNDER34%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

REB3.5OVER16%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

AST2.5OVER9%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x4/2020%▼

FTA0.5UNDER7%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 5x10/2050%▼

R+A5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Tre Johnson

Points UNDER 16.5HIGH

Tre Johnson is listed OUT, making the under the only realistic play. Even without the injury tag, his recent 9.2 PPG over the last 5 and 12.2 season average are both below the 16.5 line.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jordan Clarkson	1	2	3	100%	150%
Miles McBride	1	2	0	0%	0%
Landry Shamet	1	1	0	0%	0%
Josh Hart	1	1	2	100%	100%
OG Anunoby	1	1	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 16.597%HIGH

He is listed OUT, and his recent scoring was only 9.2 PPG over the last 5 versus 12.2 for the season. Even if he were active, the 16.5 line would be above both his season mean and recent form.

reboundsUNDER 3.597%HIGH

He is OUT, and his season mean is 2.8 RPG with 2.4 over the last 5. The 3.5 line sits above his typical production.

assistsUNDER 2.597%HIGH

He is OUT, and his season assist average is 2.0 with 1.6 over the last 5. The 2.5 line is above both his season and recent averages.

threesUNDER 1.9596%HIGH

He is OUT, and his season average is exactly 1.95 threes with a drop to 1.4 over the last 5. Recent volume does not support an over at this level.

stealsUNDER 0.595%HIGH

He is OUT, and his season steal average is 0.6 but only 0.0 over the last 5. The recent trend is below the line.

blocksUNDER 0.595%HIGH

He is OUT, and his season block average is 0.3 with 0.2 over the last 5. That is below the 0.5 line.

stocksUNDER 1.595%HIGH

He is OUT, and his combined steals plus blocks profile is below this level, with season stocks at 0.87 and 0.2 over the last 5. The line is too high relative to his production.

turnoversUNDER 293%HIGH

He is OUT, and his recent turnovers were 1.8 over the last 5 and 1.9 over the last 10. That sits near but not clearly above 2.0.

prUNDER 20.596%HIGH

He is OUT, and his season P+R profile is 15.0 using 12.2 points and 2.8 rebounds. The 20.5 line is well above that baseline.

paUNDER 19.596%HIGH

He is OUT, and his season points plus assists profile is 14.2 using 12.2 points and 2.0 assists. The line is far above his normal output.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS