AI Model:

Jalen Brunson▼

NYK · PG

PPG

26.2

RPG

3.5

APG

6.6

L5 PPG

26.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.2

26.2

26.4

RPG+0.3

3.5

3.8

APG+1.8

6.6

8.4

SPG+1.0

0.8

1.8

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

OVER 24.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

24.5

SAS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAS: 24 pts

TOR

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs TOR: 26 pts

OKC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs OKC: 16 pts

DEN

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DEN: 9 pts

LAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs LAL: 24 pts

LAC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs LAC: 28 pts

UTA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs UTA: 28 pts

IND

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs IND: 29 pts

GSW

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs GSW: 30 pts

BKN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs BKN: 17 pts

Over 24.5

Under 24.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 24.5FANDUEL

78%

AST

OVER 7.5FANDUEL

66%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

60%

REB

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

64%

P+R

OVER 28.5FANDUEL

58%

P+A

OVER 32.5FANDUEL

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

29.3

21.4

RPG

4.3

4.1

APG

8.9

7.5

vs WAS (H2H)15 games

PPG

26.1

RPG

3.3

APG

6.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Anthony Black	4	17	71%	+11.9%	medium
Tristan da Silva	4	15	39%	-13.1%	medium
VJ Edgecombe	3	14	73%	+15.1%	medium
Tre Jones	4	13	50%

Brunson has the usage, home boost, and matchup to stay productive

Jalen Brunson’s season line of 26.2 points, 6.6 assists, and 35 MPG is backed by strong home production at 29.3 PPG and 8.9 APG. His recent scoring has cooled relative to the season, with 23.1 PPG over the last 10 and a "down" trend, but the assist volume remains elevated at 9.6 over that same span. Washington’s defense has been leaky with a 124.06 defensive rating, and Brunson has also averaged 26.13 PPG across 15 games vs this opponent. The main caution is that his last-5 scoring is only slightly above season average and his B2B context for the opponent adds some volatility, but the overall setup still leans favorable at home.

Stat Trends

PPG

26.4(→ from 26.2)

APG

8.4(↑ from 6.6)

RPG

3.8(→ from 3.5)

Key Matchup

The key context is Washington’s 124.06 defensive rating and no specific defender matchup data. The Wizards are also missing multiple players, including Alex Sarr, Kyshawn George, Justin Champagnie, and Tre Johnson, which can help keep the game environment favorable for Brunson’s production.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Brunson▼	Points	24.5	OVER	78%HIGH	2/2	50%	23	✗
Jalen Brunson▼	Assists	7.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	4	✗
Jalen Brunson▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	2	✗
Jalen Brunson▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	0	✓
Jalen Brunson▼	P+R	28.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	23	✗
Jalen Brunson▼	P+A	32.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	27	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R27OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)12/2060%▼

P+A32UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

R+A12UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Brunson

Points OVER 24.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge on the board because his season average is 26.2 PPG, his home average jumps to 29.3 PPG, and he has 26.13 PPG in 15 games vs Washington. The value data also supports the over, including a 20.4% edge at BetOnline and strong positive EV, making points the best single play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Bilal Coulibaly	3	13	7	38%	44%
Bub Carrington	3	3	0	0%	0%
Jamir Watkins	1	2	2	33%	33%
Leaky Black	1	2	0	0%	0%
Tre Johnson	1	2	3	50%	75%

pointsOVER 24.578%HIGH

He averages 26.2 PPG on the season, 29.3 PPG at home, and 26.13 PPG in 15 games vs Washington. The opponent’s 124.06 defensive rating supports scoring upside, and the listed value prop shows a positive edge on the over.

assistsOVER 7.566%MEDIUM

Brunson’s last-10 assist average is 9.6 and his last-5 is 8.4, both well above his 6.6 season mean. Home assist production is also strong at 8.9 APG, though standard deviation and line pricing keep confidence moderate.

threesOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

He averages 2.74 made threes per game on the season and 2.84 at home, which is above this line. The recent 2.1 last-10 mark is lower, so this is a thinner edge than points or assists.

reboundsUNDER 3.564%MEDIUM

His season average is only 3.5 rebounds, with 3.7 over the last 10 and 3.39 at home. This is a low-volume category for him, so the under is the more conservative side.

prOVER 28.558%MEDIUM

Points plus rebounds sits at 29.7 using his season averages, and his home scoring profile gives this a workable path over the number. Still, combo props carry extra variance, so confidence should stay modest.

paOVER 32.557%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists average is 32.8, and his recent assist surge keeps this live. However, combo volatility is high and the line is close to his average, so this is only a slight lean.

timelineOVER 24.5 PTS