AI Model:

Bub Carrington▲

WAS · PG

PPG

10.1

RPG

3.7

APG

4.5

L5 PPG

13.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.9

10.1

13.0

RPG-0.5

3.7

3.2

APG-0.9

4.5

3.6

SPG-0.6

0.6

0.0

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

10.5

ORL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs ORL: 11 pts

UTA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs UTA: 7 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 9 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 12 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 12 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 2 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 4 pts

DET

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DET: 30 pts

DET

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs DET: 10 pts

OKC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs OKC: 19 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5STAKE

62%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

58%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

60%

3PM

OVER 1.5

57%

STL

UNDER 0.5STAKE

63%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

72%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

66%

OVER 2

59%

P+R

UNDER 13.5STAKE

61%

P+A

UNDER 14.5STAKE

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.9

7.8

RPG

3.3

4.2

APG

3.5

5.3

vs NYK (H2H)6 games

PPG

9.8

RPG

3.7

APG

3.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tyrese Maxey	4	15	72%	+19.0%	medium
Jamal Murray	2	14	71%	+22.2%	low
Reed Sheppard	2	11	93%	+29.3%	low
T.J. McConnell	3	10	100%

Carrington’s role is secure, but the Knicks matchup leans to a modest scoring night

Bub Carrington is averaging 10.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and 4.5 APG on the season, with his last 5 jumping to 13.0 PPG while minutes stayed stable at 27.8. Washington is on a back-to-back and missing Alex Sarr, Justin Champagnie, Kyshawn George, and Tre Johnson, which supports Carrington’s usage, but New York’s defense and Carrington’s 6-game history vs this opponent (9.8 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.7 APG) point to a more controlled projection. His recent scoring spike is above his season norm, so regression risk is real, especially against a Knicks group allowing a 110.34 defensive rating and 100 pace. The clearest edges are around lower-variance assist and rebound looks rather than chasing an inflated points ceiling.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.0(↑ from 10.1)

RPG

3.2(↓ from 3.7)

APG

3.6(↓ from 4.5)

Key Matchup

The available defender data does not provide a clean one-on-one target for Carrington, so there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on. New York’s team defensive profile is respectable, with a 110.34 defensive rating and a 100 pace that can limit overall possession volume.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Bub Carrington▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	14	✗
Bub Carrington▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓
Bub Carrington▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	8	✓
Bub Carrington▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1	✗
Bub Carrington▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✗
Bub Carrington▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Bub Carrington▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	100%	2	✗
Bub Carrington▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	59%MEDIUM	—	20%	3	✓
Bub Carrington▼	P+R	13.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	15	✗
Bub Carrington▼	P+A	14.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	22	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA19.5UNDER14%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

REB3UNDER55%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 9x5/2025%▼

3PM2UNDER18%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%▼

P+A16UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

PTS11.5OVER7%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

FTM1UNDER50%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%▼

P+R14.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

AST4.5OVER19%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

3PA4UNDER12%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

FTA1UNDER37%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x7/2035%▼

R+A7OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Bub Carrington

Blocks UNDER 0.5HIGH

Carrington is at 0.2 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 10, making a 0.5 line a clear gap above his normal output. This is one of the least volatile and cleanest under angles on his board.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Brunson	3	5	8	75%	75%
Mikal Bridges	2	4	4	50%	50%
Josh Hart	2	3	5	67%	83%
Jordan Clarkson	3	3	0	0%	0%
OG Anunoby	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 10.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 10.1 PPG, and his 6-game vs-opponent average is 9.8 PPG. The last 5 at 13.0 PPG is above his season baseline, so fading the over is safer.

reboundsUNDER 3.558%MEDIUM

Carrington’s season average is 3.7 RPG, but his last 5 is 3.2 RPG and his away mean is 3.91 with only modest home support at 3.3. The line is right on his range, but the under is slightly more appealing in a low-margin spot.

assistsOVER 3.560%MEDIUM

He averages 4.5 APG on the season and 4.0 in the last 10, with a 4.4 APG home baseline. Washington’s absences should keep his ball-handling role elevated.

threesOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.94 threes per game for the season and 1.8 over the last 10, both above this 1.5 line. The away mean is lower at 1.76, so this is playable but not a high-confidence angle.

stealsUNDER 0.563%MEDIUM

His season average is only 0.6 SPG, but the last 5 shows 0.0 and the last 10 is 0.3. With limited steal production, the under is the cleaner side.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

He averages just 0.2 BPG on the season and 0.2 in the last 10. A 0.5 blocks line is well above his normal production.

stocksUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

Carrington’s season stocks average is 0.78 and his recent mean is 0.5. This is a volatile category, and his baseline sits well below the threshold.

turnoversOVER 259%MEDIUM

He is at 1.9 turnovers over the last 10 and 1.9 over the last 20, with a recent game showing 7 turnovers. With expanded handling and a back-to-back spot, the over is reasonable.

prUNDER 13.561%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds average is 13.71, but the 13.5 line is tight and his recent scoring has already outpaced his baseline. Given regression risk, the under is the safer combo side.

paUNDER 14.564%MEDIUM

He combines for 14.6 P+A on the season, but his last 5 points surge is not mirrored by assists, which have dipped to 3.6. The line is slightly elevated versus his typical production.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS