AI Model:

Alex Sarr▼

WAS · C

PPG

16.5

RPG

7.3

APG

2.7

L5 PPG

12.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.7

16.5

12.8

RPG-2.7

7.3

4.6

APG-0.5

2.7

2.2

SPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

BPG+0.2

2.0

2.2

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

LAL

2026-01-30

2026-01-30 vs LAL: 16 pts

NYK

2026-02-03

2026-02-03 vs NYK: 11 pts

DET

2026-02-05

2026-02-05 vs DET: 12 pts

MIA

2026-02-08

2026-02-08 vs MIA: 12 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 7 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 28 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 16 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 4 pts

DET

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs DET: 2 pts

OKC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs OKC: 14 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5

99%

REB

UNDER 7.5

99%

AST

UNDER 2.5

99%

3PM

UNDER 1

99%

STL

UNDER 0.5

99%

BLK

UNDER 2

99%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.8

99%

UNDER 2

99%

PRA

UNDER 26.5

99%

P+A

UNDER 19

99%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.8

14.9

RPG

7.9

5.8

APG

3.7

1.2

vs NYK (H2H)6 games

PPG

12.7

RPG

6.0

APG

3.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Duren	3	15	47%	-1.7%	medium
Moussa Diabaté	3	15	100%	+51.6%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	3	14	86%	+24.3%	medium
Neemias Queta	2	14	92%

Injury-impact capped, but matchup and role keep the board mixed

Alex Sarr’s season line is strong at 16.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists in 27.1 MPG, but his recent form has cooled to 12.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG, and 2.2 APG over the last 5. The biggest factor here is that he is listed as OUT, so his usual production baseline should not be projected for tonight. Washington is also on a back-to-back, which further supports a conservative stance on any over-based angle in this game.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.8(↓ from 16.5)

RPG

4.6(↓ from 7.3)

APG

2.2(↓ from 2.7)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data should be used beyond the provided key defenders, and the key issue is that Sarr is OUT. The opponent data shows the Knicks with a 110.34 defensive rating and 100 pace, but injury status is the dominant factor.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Alex Sarr▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	99%HIGH	2/2	90%
Alex Sarr▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	99%HIGH	2/2	80%
Alex Sarr▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	99%HIGH	2/2	60%
Alex Sarr▼	3PM	1	UNDER	99%HIGH	1/2	70%
Alex Sarr▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	99%HIGH	—	40%
Alex Sarr▼	Blocks	2	UNDER	99%HIGH	2/2	90%
Alex Sarr▼	STL+BLK	2.8	UNDER	99%HIGH	—	80%
Alex Sarr▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	99%HIGH	—	80%
Alex Sarr▼	PRA	26.5	UNDER	99%HIGH	2/2	60%
Alex Sarr▼	P+A	19	UNDER	99%HIGH	1/2	70%

ML Scout Analysis

PRA25.5UNDER42%gbt_praDecent Leg (15/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

PTS15UNDER15%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

AST2OVER25%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

3PA3UNDER29%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

P+R22UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 5x9/2045%▼

P+A17UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼

3PM1UNDER21%gbt_three_pmDecent Leg (12/20)5/2025%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM1.5UNDER20%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

REB6UNDER26%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)7/2035%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

BLK1UNDER36%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER14%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

Featured Pick

Alex Sarr

Points UNDER 16.5HIGH

Sarr is listed as OUT, making an under on his points the clearest call. Even if one were to ignore the injury designation, his last-5 scoring average of 12.8 is well below his 16.5 season mean.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Karl-Anthony Towns	1	9	23	48%	52%
Ariel Hukporti	1	2	0	0%	0%
Jalen Brunson	2	1	10	56%	56%
Landry Shamet	1	1	0	0%	0%
OG Anunoby	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 16.599%HIGH

He is listed as OUT, so the safest read is under any scoring expectation. His recent 5-game scoring average is already down to 12.8 versus 16.5 for the season, reinforcing the downtrend.

reboundsUNDER 7.599%HIGH

He is OUT, so rebound production should not be expected. Even before the injury designation, his last 5 rebounds were 4.6, below his 7.3 season average.

assistsUNDER 2.599%HIGH

He is OUT, making an assist over impossible to justify. His recent assist average is 2.2, slightly below his 2.7 season mark.

threesUNDER 199%HIGH

He is OUT, and while he averages 1.07 threes per game on the season, availability overrides the stat profile. The last 5 show 1.6 FG3M per game, but that form is moot with no expected minutes.

stealsUNDER 0.599%HIGH

He is OUT, so defensive counting stats are not playable. His season average of 0.8 steals per game would normally qualify, but availability removes the edge.

blocksUNDER 299%HIGH

He is OUT, so blocks should be projected at zero. His season average is 2.0 blocks, but no minutes means no path to the over.

stocksUNDER 2.899%HIGH

He is OUT, and stocks are a combo stat that still requires playing time. His season mean is 2.85, but that does not matter without availability.

turnoversUNDER 299%HIGH

He is OUT, so turnovers should not be projected. His recent 5-game turnover average is exactly 2.0, but the injury status makes the under the only viable side.

praUNDER 26.599%HIGH

He is OUT, and PRA is a high-variance combo that cannot be supported without minutes. His season PRA profile would normally be around 26.5, but availability overrides the number.

paUNDER 1999%HIGH

He is OUT, so points+assists should be treated as unavailable. His season scoring and playmaking are solid, but there is no playable over with no expected participation.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Injury-impact capped, but matchup and role keep the board mixed

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 16.5 PTS