Season 9.7 PPG, recent 8.0, L5 8.4. Coach projects 25 MPG (down from 28.1 season), HIGH volatility flag (18-34 range). vs OKC H2H 7.77 PPG over 22 games supports under. Blowout scenario (MEDIUM-HIGH prob) caps minutes to 22. Even close-game script (25 MPG) yields ~8.2 PPG baseline. Recent 3 games: 8, 3, 16 pts (inconsistent). At 25 MPG, 0.34 PPM = 8.5 projected; line at 9.5 requires 9.5/25 = 0.38 PPM, above season 0.34. Books set line high; blowout risk caps ceiling.

Season 4.8 RPG, recent L5 5.4, L10 5.1. Coach projects 25 MPG; at 28.1 MPG season rate = 0.17 RPM, projects 4.25 at 25 MPG. BUT recent 5 games average 5.4 RPG at 24.6 MPG (0.22 RPM), suggesting elevated rebounding trend. H2H vs OKC 5.27 RPG supports line. Recent games: 7, 6, 9, 3, 2 REB (last 2 low, prior 3 high). OKC allows 44.12 RPG team; PHX defensive vulnerability creates more offensive boards for bench. At 25 MPG with 0.22 RPM = 5.5 projection. Line is fair but trend supports small over.

Season 2.67 APG, recent L5 2.0, L10 1.9. Coach projects 25 MPG (down from 28.1). O'Neale is wing defender/spot minutes, NOT primary playmaker. H2H vs OKC 2.32 APG over 22 games. Recent assists: 2, 0, 4, 3, 1 (inconsistent, trending down). At 25 MPG with 0.076 APM (L5 rate) = 1.9 APG. Line 2.5 requires 0.1 APM, above season 0.088. Budenholzer runs 13-man rotation; O'Neale gets spot minutes off the bench with limited ball-handling role. Books overvalue bench guard assist props. Blowout scenario eliminates crunch time where O'Neale gets ball.

Season 2.72 3PM, recent L5 2.0, L10 2.0. Coach projects 25 MPG down from 28.1 season. At 2.72/28.1 MPG season rate = 0.0968 3PM per minute, projects 2.42 at 25 MPG. BUT recent 5 games show 2.0 3PM at 24.6 MPG (0.081 3PM/min), suggesting regression from 41.1% season 3PT to lower efficiency. Recent games: 2, 1, 4, 1, 1 threes (volatile, last 3 games only 1 each). OKC defense holds opponents to 36.7% 3P; PHX allows 34.8%. Line at 2.0 is fair to slightly high. Books ALWAYS overvalue three props per historical data (69% hit rate on threes UNDER). Recent trend (1, 1, 1 in last 3) + minutes down + tough defense = lean under.

Season 1.49 stocks (STL+BLK), recent L5 0.6, L10 1.2. Coach projects 25 MPG down from 28.1. At 1.49/28.1 = 0.053 stocks per minute, projects 1.33 at 25 MPG. H2H vs OKC 1.27 stocks per 26.2 MPG (0.048 rate) = 1.2 projected at 25 MPG. CRITICAL: O'Neale's playoff performance shows 0.75 stocks per game over 4 games at 24.25 MPG—significantly below season rate, suggesting playoff/high-stakes defense is tighter. Recent L5: 0, 0, 2, 0, 4 stocks (highly volatile, two outlier games inflating L5 avg to 0.6). Recent L10 shows 0.9 average, closer to 1.2 true rate. Line at 1.5 requires sustained production at HIGH level. OKC's elite defense (106.14 DRTG) and structured scheme limit steals off-bench. Blowout scenario (likely) reduces crunch-time defensive intensity where O'Neale would accumulate stocks. Books OVERVALUE stocks (Blocks OVER hit only 40%, Stocks UNDER 64.9%)—structural edge to under.