Season 9.1 PPG, last 5 avg 4.4 PPG on 16.4 MPG. Coach projects 20 MPG tonight but volatility is HIGH (8-27 range last 5). H2H vs PHX: 21 games at 8.5 PPG matches line exactly but includes 27-min outlier (4/12) and three 8-11 min games. Recent trend sharp downward (13 pts 4/10 → 0-2 pts last 3 games). Blowout risk MEDIUM-HIGH caps minutes to 10-15, depressing scoring. Game script favors early OKC lead, bench minutes. Line is fair but downside risk outweighs upside given volatility and recent 4.4 PPG trend.

Season 3.0 RPG, last 5 avg 1.6 RPG on 16.4 MPG. H2H vs PHX: 3.1 RPG over 21 games at 21 MPG — line of 3.5 requires above-season rate on potentially reduced minutes. Recent games show 0-2 rebs in three of last five (4/27, 4/25, 4/19). Blowout scenario caps minutes to 10-15, dropping projection to 0.8-1.2 rebs. No position advantage vs PHX's rebounding scheme. Volatility in minutes makes over risky.

Season 1.7 APG, last 5 avg 2.6 APG on 16.4 MPG — line is slightly above season average but BELOW recent trend. H2H vs PHX: 1.4 APG over 21 games, but includes four recent games (4/27, 4/25, 4/19, 4/12) averaging 2.5 APG. Recent 4/10 game: 3 assists in 25 min supports higher rate. B2B metric shows 2.6 APG (above season 1.7). Assists prop has lower blowout sensitivity than scoring; even at 10-15 min, ball movement can inflate assist totals. Coach's ball-movement system (25.77 team APG) favors bench assist inflation in low-volume situations. Slight edge to OVER but confidence capped by recent low-minute games (8-11 min stretched to 2-3 assists).

Season 1.48 3PM, last 5 avg 0.8 3PM on 16.4 MPG. Line of 1.5 requires above-season rate on volatile minutes. H2H vs PHX: zero makes in last three games (4/27, 4/25, 4/19) despite 0-1 attempts in 8-11 min windows. 4/12 game shows 1 three in 27 min (0.037 rate). Recent trend shows inconsistent three-point volume (0-2 attempts last 5 games). Blowout scenario further reduces shot attempts. Books trend THREES UNDER at 69% hit rate — structural advantage. Confidence HIGH on UNDER.

Season 1.35 stocks (STL+BLK), last 5 avg 0.8 stocks on 16.4 MPG. H2H vs PHX: 1.1 stocks over 21 games at 21 MPG — line of 1.5 is above H2H rate. Recent trend shows 0-1 stocks in four of last five games (4/27, 4/25, 4/19, 4/8). BLK component is minimal (0.4 season, 0.2 recent) — stocks prop is heavily STL-dependent. Wiggins averages 0.9 SPG season and 0.8 SPG recent; needs strong defense flow to hit 1.5. Blowout scenario (bench minutes) reduces defensive intensity. Stocks UNDER is market-favored (65% hit rate) and recent trend supports it.