Jakob Poeltl v2 Props — Toronto Raptors vs Detroit Pistons

AI Model:

Jakob Poeltl

TOR · C

PPG

10.6

RPG

7.6

APG

2.1

L5 PPG

12.4

Last 10 GamesREB

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.8

10.6

12.4

RPG-0.6

7.6

7.0

APG+0.1

2.1

2.2

SPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

BPG+0.1

0.7

0.8

UNDER 8.5 REB

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

8.5

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 10 reb

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 5 reb

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 6 reb

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 18 reb

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 8 reb

DEN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DEN: 11 reb

PHX

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs PHX: 0 reb

LAC

2026-03-25

2026-03-25 vs LAC: 6 reb

NOP

2026-03-27

2026-03-27 vs NOP: 11 reb

ORL

2026-03-29

2026-03-29 vs ORL: 7 reb

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

REB

UNDER 8.5

85%

PTS

UNDER 10.5

70%

AST

UNDER 2.5

75%

P+R

OVER 19.5

80%

P+A

UNDER 13.5

80%

PRA

UNDER 22.5

85%

R+A

UNDER 10.5

90%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

95%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.4

11.6

RPG

10.4

6.0

APG

3.2

1.4

vs DET (H2H)16 games

PPG

11.9

RPG

11.6

APG

3.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Ryan Kalkbrenner	3	21	57%	-12.7%	medium
Jalen Duren	2	13	75%	+5.2%	low
Kristaps Porziņģis	2	10	41%	-38.5%	low
Andre Drummond	1	10	25%

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jakob Poeltl▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	85%HIGH	2/2	60%	4	✓
Jakob Poeltl▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	40%	13	✗
Jakob Poeltl▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	75%HIGH	2/2	60%	1	✓
Jakob Poeltl▼	P+R	19.5	OVER	80%HIGH	1/2	50%	17	✗
Jakob Poeltl▼	P+A	13.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	2/2	40%	14	✗
Jakob Poeltl▼	PRA	22.5	UNDER	85%HIGH	2/2	50%	18	✓
Jakob Poeltl▼	R+A	10.5	UNDER	90%HIGH	1/2	60%	5	✓
Jakob Poeltl▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	95%HIGH	—	30%	0	✓

ML Scout Analysis

REB7.5UNDER29%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%+14.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA22.5UNDER24%gbt_praDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%+8.8% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS11.5UNDER34%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

P+A14UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

R+A9OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Duren	2	13	22	75%	75%
Paul Reed	3	6	17	89%	94%
Ausar Thompson	3	2	0	0%	0%
Tolu Smith	1	2	0	0%	0%
Tobias Harris	3	1	0	0%	0%

reboundsUNDER 8.585%HIGH

Projected 25 MPG with high volatility favors sub-8.5 rebounds. Recent trend 7-11 with some low games. Opponent interior defense solid; no edge to get rebound volume. Home/away split shows 8.5 (home) vs line 8.5 floor tight. Under edge 27%. Stable game script, normal minutes.

pointsUNDER 10.570%HIGH

Season avg 10.6 vs line 10.5; last 5 avg 12.4 with high volatility (0-23). 25 MPG limits scoring chances; opponent defense suppresses scoring slightly. No teammate absences increasing Poeltl usage. Slight downward minutes trend last 5. Confidence moderated by volatility, no value edge.

assistsUNDER 2.575%HIGH

Season 2.1, recent 2.2 APG, line 2.5 slightly high. Minutes around 25 limit assist chances. Raptors balanced offense reduces high assist from C. Opponent moderate perimeter defense won't force passes. Last 5 mixed with mostly under 3 assists. No increased usage role.

prOVER 19.580%HIGH

Combining points+rebounds shows player close to 18-20 range often, last 5 trend suggests overlap of points+rebs above 19.5 feasible. Minutes ensure meaningful contribution; opponent defense not extreme suppressor. High volatility but balanced usage. Close game expected, starter minutes intact.

paUNDER 13.580%HIGH

Points + assists combined. Poeltl’s recent combined points+assists mostly below 13.5; assists rarely contribute heavily. Minutes volatility can limit this. Season points+assists avg near 12.7. No usage spike expected. Opponent defense adequate at suppressing inside point generation.

praUNDER 22.585%HIGH

Points + rebounds + assists line of 22.5 is high given season averages (10.6+7.6+2.1=20.3) and recent (12.4+7+2.2=21.6) with 25 MPG. Opponent defense solid interior, no roster changes increase usage. High confidence under with medium blowout risk capped minutes.

raUNDER 10.590%HIGH

Rebounds + assists line at 10.5 vs recent avg of 9.2 (7+2.2), season 9.7 (7.6+2.1). Minutes volatility and opponent’s solid boards reduces upside. Last 5 consistency low to moderate. Clear value on under with no usage boost.

blocksUNDER 0.595%HIGH

Poeltl averages 0.7 BPG season, recent 0.8 BPG, high odds favor under. Blocks are volatile but consistent under pick. Opponent shots inside challenged by Pistons defenders. Blocks OVER rarely profitable; strong statistical advantage on UNDER.

timelineUNDER 8.5 REB

Defensive Matchup Profile

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

UNDER 8.5 REB