Coach Billups projects 31 minutes but notes starters sit at 28 in blowout scenarios, which is likely given the 16-point spread and high blowout probability. Teammates Jerami Grant and Shaedon Sharpe being out increases his role, but his season average of 6.9 rebounds is barely above the 6.5 line, and his last 5 average of 6.4 is already below it. Most importantly, his home split of 5.6 rebounds is significantly lower than tonight's line. While H2H history shows 6.7 rebounds, this contradiction is explained by the small 3-game sample size, and his current home-court underperformance is a stronger signal. The value calculator's 23.2% edge for the over is negated by the high blowout probability and reduced minutes. Avdija has failed to clear 6.5 rebounds in 3 of his last 5 games.