Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Kennard | 2 | 8 | 63% | +8.3% | low |
| Liam McNeeley | 3 | 7 | 0% | -41.7% | medium |
| Ben Sheppard | 4 | 6 | 75% | +33.3% | medium |
| Quentin Grimes | 4 | 6 | 133% |
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gradey Dick▼ | Points | 5.5 | OVER | 75%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% | 11 | ✓ |
Gradey Dick▼ | PRA | 8.5 | OVER | 70%HIGH | 2/2 | 30% | 15 | ✓ |
| medium |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 4 | 6 | 14% | -27.4% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan da Silva | 3 | 4 | 5 | 33% | 50% |
| Jett Howard | 1 | 3 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| Jamal Cain | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0% |
| Jase Richardson | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Noah Penda | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
Gradey Dick's points line features a significant sharp signal, moving from 3.5 to 5.5, which aligns with the value calculator's 15% edge for the OVER. While his recent minutes have dipped to 9.3 MPG, the team context of a starter being ruled out suggests he will see an increase toward his 14.8 MPG season average. Dick has cleared 5.5 points in 3 of his last 5 games and 7 of his last 10, demonstrating consistent scoring ability when given rotation minutes. His head-to-head history against Orlando is particularly strong, averaging 7.8 PPG across 8 meetings, which is well above tonight's line. This H2H success is explained by his 19.75 MPG average against the Magic, a workload he is likely to approach tonight given the roster vacancies. Despite Orlando's -0.176 scoring suppression, Dick's home average of 5.91 PPG and the projected competitive game script support him reaching the over.
The 8.5 PRA line is set below Dick's season average of 8.9 and his career head-to-head average of 10.5 against the Magic. Although he has only cleared this in 2 of his last 5 games, his production is heavily tied to minutes; he recorded 22 and 14 PRA in his two most recent games with double-digit minutes (28 and 15 mins). With a Toronto starter out, Dick is expected to see a role expansion that should elevate him from his recent 9.3 MPG back toward his 19.75 MPG career average against Orlando. His last 5 trend of 1.6 APG shows improved playmaking compared to his 0.7 APG season average, which complements his 2.0 RPG season baseline to provide a higher floor for combo stats. Given the high pace indicator and tight -2.5 spread, Dick should have ample opportunities to accumulate the 9 combined stats needed to clear this line. The low blowout probability ensures he will remain part of the rotation throughout the second half.