Herro's season average of 2.48 threes is significantly below this line, and he has failed to clear 3.5 threes in 7 of his last 10 games. Indiana's defense provides a -0.372 three-point suppression rating, and the value calculator identifies a massive 58.4% edge on the under.

The 32.5 line is nearly 12 points higher than Herro's season (20.9) and last 10 (20.6) averages, with sharp money already driving the market line down to 20.5. Miami's 89.9% win probability against the 17-58 Pacers creates a high blowout risk that will likely cap Herro's minutes well below his 30.8 MPG average.

Herro has cleared 4.5 rebounds in 8 of his last 10 games, averaging 5.7 RPG in that span. Sharp money has moved this line from an opening 3.5 up to 5.5, and the high game total of 245.0 suggests a high-possession environment that favors his 5.15 away rebounding average.

Herro is averaging 4.7 APG over his last 10 games and has cleared this line in 7 of those 10 contests. Despite a lower season average of 3.9, sharp money has moved the line up from 3.5, and Indiana's 120.65 defensive rating offers little resistance to Miami's playmaking.

Herro's last 5 average for points and assists combined is only 22.6, and the high blowout risk caps his scoring ceiling. With his points prop being a heavy under, he would need a massive assist outlier to clear this combo line in reduced minutes.

Herro's combined points and rebounds average over the last 5 games is 23.4, well below the 25.5 threshold. While his rebounding is trending up, his recent scoring inconsistency (11 and 18 points in his last two games) makes the under the more probable outcome in a potential blowout.

Herro has hit the over on 29.5 PRA in only 5 of his last 10 games, and his last 5 average of 27.4 is significantly lower than this line. The high blowout probability suggests starters will sit early, making it difficult to accumulate the 30+ stats required.

Herro has averaged 10.4 combined rebounds and assists over his last 10 games, benefiting from an increased role. The extremely high 245.0 game total and sharp upward movement on both his individual rebound and assist lines support him clearing this combined total even with slightly reduced minutes.