Andrew Wiggins v2 Props — Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers

AI Model:

Andrew Wiggins

MIA · PF

PPG

15.7

RPG

4.9

APG

2.7

L5 PPG

10.8

Last 10 GamesAST

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.9

15.7

10.8

RPG-1.3

4.9

3.6

APG-1.1

2.7

1.6

SPG+0.1

1.1

1.2

BPG0.0

1.0

UNDER 2.5 AST

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

2.5

ATL

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs ATL: 2 ast

MEM

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs MEM: 3 ast

MIL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs MIL: 5 ast

PHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHI: 2 ast

HOU

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs HOU: 4 ast

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 4 ast

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 1 ast

SAS

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs SAS: 1 ast

CLE

2026-03-25

2026-03-25 vs CLE: 2 ast

CLE

2026-03-27

2026-03-27 vs CLE: 0 ast

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

AST

UNDER 2.5

85%

REB

OVER 4.5

70%

PTS

UNDER 14.5

80%

3PM

UNDER 1.5

75%

P+A

UNDER 14.5

80%

PRA

UNDER 18.5

80%

R+A

UNDER 6.5

80%

P+R

UNDER 16.5

80%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.0

14.2

RPG

5.4

4.2

APG

2.6

2.2

vs IND (H2H)9 games

PPG

15.2

RPG

4.7

APG

2.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaylen Brown	3	17	52%	-3.2%	medium
Paolo Banchero	4	16	44%	-5.9%	medium
Mikal Bridges	4	14	66%	+2.4%	medium
Michael Porter Jr.	2	14	47%

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Andrew Wiggins▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	85%HIGH	2/2	60%	5	✗
Andrew Wiggins▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	70%HIGH	2/2	50%	6	✓
Andrew Wiggins▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	2/2	70%	15	✗
Andrew Wiggins▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	75%HIGH	2/2	40%	3	✗
Andrew Wiggins▼	P+A	14.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	2/2	40%	20	✗
Andrew Wiggins▼	PRA	18.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	2/2	40%	26	✗
Andrew Wiggins▼	R+A	6.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	2/2	50%	11	✗
Andrew Wiggins▼	P+R	16.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	2/2	40%	21	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS13.5UNDER10%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER14%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 6x14/2070%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Value edge shifted -0.266▼

P+R20UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

REB4.5UNDER22%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA20.5UNDER1%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)13/2065%▼

P+A17.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

AST2.5UNDER28%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

BLK1.5UNDER57%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Pascal Siakam	2	6	10	44%	44%
Andrew Nembhard	3	5	4	40%	40%
Aaron Nesmith	2	4	5	29%	36%
Jarace Walker	2	2	0	0%	0%
Johnny Furphy	2	2	0	0%	0%

assistsUNDER 2.585%HIGH

Sharp money has heavily bet this down from 5.5 to 2.5, and the value calculator shows a massive 46% edge on the UNDER. Wiggins has failed to clear 2.5 assists in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging only 1.6 APG in that span as his minutes have dropped to 22.8 MPG.

reboundsOVER 4.570%HIGH

Despite a recent dip to 3.6 RPG, sharps have pushed this line up from 3.5 to 4.5, and the value calculator identifies a 36.6% edge on the OVER. Indiana's 120.65 defensive rating and high pace provide an elite environment for Wiggins to return to his 4.95 season rebounding average, though blowout risk caps the ceiling.

pointsUNDER 14.580%HIGH

Wiggins has not cleared 14.5 points in any of his last 5 games (0% hit rate), averaging just 10.8 PPG. Sharp money is aligned with this trend, moving the line down significantly, and the high blowout risk suggests he will not see enough 4th-quarter minutes to overcome his recent scoring slump.

threesUNDER 1.575%HIGH

Wiggins has stayed under 1.5 threes in 3 of his last 5 games, and historical data shows 'Threes UNDER' hits at a 69% rate. While the matchup is favorable, his reduced role (22.8 MPG) and the 1.4 average over the last 5 games make the UNDER the statistically safer play.

paUNDER 14.580%HIGH

Wiggins is averaging only 12.4 PA over his last 5 games, clearing this 14.5 line only once in that span. With both points and assists trending down and a high probability of starters sitting early in a blowout, he lacks the volume to reach 15 combined stats.

praUNDER 18.580%HIGH

The player's last 5 game average of 16.0 PRA is well below this 18.5 line, with only 1 of those games resulting in an OVER. His season average of 23.3 is inflated by higher early-season minutes (30.5 MPG) compared to his current projected role and the high blowout risk tonight.

raUNDER 6.580%HIGH

Wiggins has failed to clear 6.5 RA in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging just 5.2 RA during that period. The combination of his 1.6 APG trend and the risk of reduced minutes due to a blowout makes the UNDER highly probable despite Indiana's poor defense.

prUNDER 16.580%HIGH

Wiggins has stayed under 16.5 PR in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 14.4 PR. While Indiana allows high production, Wiggins' recent scoring suppression and the sharp downward movement on his points line suggest he won't have the offensive volume to clear this combo.

timelineUNDER 2.5 AST

Defensive Matchup Profile

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

UNDER 2.5 AST