AI Model:
SG
Derrick Jones Jr.▼
LAC · SG
PPG
10.7
RPG
3.3
APG
1.5
L5 PPG
10.0
Last 10 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG-0.7
10.7
10.0
RPG+1.7
3.3
5.0
APG+0.9
1.5
2.4
SPG-0.4
1.0
0.6
BPG-0.4
1.0
0.6
Home vs Away
Home
Away
PPG
11.2
11.9
RPG
3.8
4.5
APG
1.2
2.5
vs MIL (H2H)9 games
PPG
4.9
RPG
3.7
APG
0.7
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 3 | 12 | 38% | -17.4% | medium |
| De'Aaron Fox | 3 | 11 | 38% | -13.2% | medium |
| Trey Murphy III | 3 | 10 | 83% | +16.0% | medium |
| Jamal Murray | 2 | 10 | 17% |
{ "props": [ { "type": "rebounds", "line": 3.5, "pick": "OVER", "confidence": 75, "reasoning": "Tyronn Lue’s blowout adjustment projects Jones for 25.3 minutes, yet he remains a strong candidate for the over as he has cleared 3.5 rebounds in four of his last five games (averaging 5.0 RPG). Sharp money has moved this line up from 2.5 to 3.5, reflecting his recent efficiency despite a season average of 3.29. His head-to-head history against Milwaukee (3.66 RPG) and his 5-rebound performance in their last meeting on March 23 further support the over. While he averages slightly fewer rebounds away (3.18) than at home (3.36), the Bucks' poor defensive rating and high pace indicator provide ample rebounding opportunities before starters are rested." }, { "type": "pr", "line": 13.5, "pick": "UNDER", "confidence": 75, "reasoning": "With a projected 25.3 minutes in a blowout scenario, Jones faces a difficult path to reaching 14 combined points and rebounds, having failed to clear this line in three straight games. His head-to-head average against Milwaukee is a lowly 8.6
ML Scout Analysis
PTS8.5OVER1%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x12/2060%+6.5% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Line moved -1.0; Value edge shifted +0.184▼
REB3.5OVER19%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%+6.5% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼
PRA13.5UNDER4%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x12/2060%Line moved -1.5▼
R+A5.5UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼
P+R14OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼
P+A11OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.