Lopez is averaging 2.6 3PM over his last 5 games and hit 5 threes in just 22 minutes against MIL on 3/23. The value calculator shows a 44% edge for the OVER, and he has cleared this line in 3 of his last 5 games despite fluctuating minutes.

His season average of 3.3 RPG is significantly lower than the line, and sharp money has already pushed the line down from 6.5 to 4.5. With a very high blowout probability, his projected minutes drop to 25.3, making it unlikely he clears a line he has missed in 3 of his last 5 games.

Sharp money is heavily backing the OVER, moving the line from 7.5 to 9.5, while Lopez has averaged 13.0 PPG over his last 5. He scored 19 points against MIL in their last meeting and has cleared this 7.5 line in 4 of his last 5 games.

Lopez is averaging 18.8 PR over his last 5 games and recorded 22 PR in his last H2H against Milwaukee. Although the blowout risk is high, his recent scoring surge (13.0 PPG) and increased rebounding (5.8 RPG) provide a strong cushion to clear 14.5 in three quarters.

While Lopez has trended up recently, his season average is 1.2 BPG and historical data shows Blocks UNDER has a 71.4% hit rate. The projected blowout reduction to 25.3 minutes significantly limits his rim protection opportunities.

Lopez averages only 4.5 RA on the season and recorded 6 RA in his last game against MIL. He has failed to clear this line in 3 of his last 5 games, and the high blowout risk makes a 66% increase over his season mean highly improbable.