Defensive Matchup Profile

{ "props": [ { "type": "points", "line": 9.5, "pick": "UNDER", "confidence": 85, "reasoning": "Sharp money has moved this line down from 9.5 to 8.5, and Eason has failed to clear 9.5 points in 4 of his last 5 games (8.0 PPG average). His minutes have trended down to 21.8 MPG recently, and his H2H average against New Orleans is a low 8.2 PPG. The value calculator shows a significant 18% edge on the under, supported by a poor 119.31 defensive rating for NOP that hasn't translated to high scoring for Eason in past matchups (4 points in 19 minutes last game)." }, { "type": "rebounds", "line": 5.5, "pick": "OVER", "confidence": 80, "reasoning": "Eason has cleared 5.5 rebounds in 7 of his last 10 games, averaging 6.5 RPG in that span which is well above the line. While his H2H average is lower (4.4), that includes a 19-minute outlier; his season average of 6.3 RPG in 26 minutes suggests he will exploit New Orleans' pace (102.61). The value calculator identifies an 11.5% edge here, and his away split (6.72 RPG) is even stronger than his home average." }, { "type": "threes", "line": 1.5, "pick": "UNDER", "confidence": 95, "reasoning": "Eason is in a severe shooting slump, failing to clear 1.5 threes in any of his last 10 games (0.4 average). Despite a season average of 1.54, his recent trend (0% hit rate over 10 games) and the structural 69% historical advantage for threes UNDER make this a near-lock. His projected minutes (21.8 L5) and low volume (0.8 makes on 3.2 attempts L5) provide no evidence for a breakout against NOP's three-suppression defense." }, { "type": "pr", "line": 14.5, "pick": "UNDER", "confidence": 70, "reasoning": "Eason's combined Points and Rebounds average has dropped to 14.0 over the last 10 games, with only 4 of those games clearing this 14.5 line. While his rebounding is solid, the sharp downward movement on his points line and his reduced 21.8 MPG recently cap his total production ceiling. His H2H history (12.6 PR) further suggests he struggles to reach this combo total against the Pelicans' frontcourt." }, { "type": "pra", "line": 15.5, "pick": "UNDER", "confidence": 75, "reasoning": "Eason has cleared 15.5 PRA in only 3 of his last 10 games, as his scoring (7.5 PPG) and playmaking (1.1 APG) have both declined significantly from season averages. His recent 24.6 MPG is lower than his season 26 MPG, and his last 5 average of 15.0 PRA is below the line. The high pace of NOP (102.61) may provide more possessions, but Eason's 40.9% FG shooting limits his ability to convert those into counting stats." }, { "type": "pa", "line": 11.5, "pick": "UNDER", "confidence": 80, "reasoning": "With a season average of 11.7 and a last 10 average of only 8.6, Eason has cleared 11.5 PA in only 2 of his last 10 outings. The sharp money signal on his points under and his low recent assist rate (0.8 APG) make the under highly probable. His H2H average of 9.4 PA confirms he historically underperforms this line against New Orleans' defensive scheme." }, { "type": "ra", "line": 7.5, "pick": "OVER", "confidence": 65, "reasoning": "Eason's rebounding remains his most consistent trait, helping him clear 7.5 RA in 6 of his last 10 games despite low assist numbers. His last 10 average of 7.6 RA is slightly above the line, and the high-pace matchup (102.61) favors his high-motor rebounding style. While his H2H is low (5.6 RA), his recent form of 6.5 RPG provides a strong baseline to hit this total if he sees 22-25 minutes." }, { "type": "assists", "line": 1.5, "pick": "UNDER", "confidence": 80, "reasoning": "Eason has recorded more than 1 assist in only 2 of his last 10 games, averaging just 1.1 APG in that span. The structural advantage of the UNDER on assists (44.2% hit rate for OVERs) aligns with his recent lack of playmaking volume and reduced minutes. His H2H average (1.2) and last game vs NOP (0 assists) further reinforce that he is not a primary facilitator in this rotation." } ] } ```