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NightlyHoops/Predictions/2026-03-27
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NBA Slate

Friday, March 27, 2026

10 games · 80 tracked props · 218 graded picks

Slate Result
55%
119-99
Board View
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Slate Read

v2 multi-agent analysis: 0 games with Team + Matchup + Player agents.

Game Board

Each matchup card shows the strongest props for that game first. Open a card for the full preview.

ATL@BOS
Board Readyscheduled

Open this matchup to read the full game preview and reasoning.

Top Props
Sam Hauser
Points 8.5
UNDER85%Miss
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Points 18.5
OVER80%Hit
Full Prop Board

Use this when you want the entire slate in one sortable table.

80 picks
Filter:
PlayerPropLinePickConfidenceTrendEdgeActualResult
Trey Murphy III▼
NOP
Points0.5ProjUNDER100%HIGH0%———
Nikola Jokić▼
DEN
Assists11.5ProjOVER90%HIGH80%0.0%12✓
Ace Bailey▼
UTA
Blocks0.5BetMGMOVER90%HIGH70%0.0%0✗
Sam Hauser▼
BOS
Points8.5DraftKingsUNDER85%HIGH60%+10.7%10✗
Isaiah Hartenstein▼
OKC
Rebounds8.5FanDuelOVER85%HIGH40%—16✓
Isaac Okoro▼
CHI
Blocks0.5BetMGMUNDER85%HIGH90%—1✗
Toumani Camara▼
POR
Rebounds4.5DraftKingsOVER85%HIGH40%+15.0%5✓
Toumani Camara▼
POR
Assists2.5BetOnline.agUNDER85%HIGH60%+15.0%3✗
Toumani Camara▼
POR
Blocks0.5BetMGMUNDER85%HIGH60%+15.0%1✗
Max Christie▼
DAL
Blocks0.5BetMGMUNDER85%HIGH60%+15.0%2✗
Amen Thompson▼
HOU
Rebounds7.5FanDuelOVER85%HIGH50%0.0%8✓
Jabari Smith Jr.▼
HOU
Rebounds7.5BetRiversOVER85%HIGH30%0.0%16✓
Kawhi Leonard▼
LAC
Points28.5DraftKingsOVER85%HIGH50%+15.7%28✗
Pascal Siakam▼
IND
Points21.5BetMGMOVER85%HIGH60%+15.2%11✗
Jay Huff▼
IND
Rebounds4.5BetMGMUNDER85%HIGH60%+14.1%3✓
Andrew Nembhard▼
IND
Assists7.5CaesarsUNDER85%HIGH60%+9.5%10✗
Andrew Wiggins▼
MIA
3PM1.5BetRiversOVER85%HIGH60%+26.7%3✓
Jarrett Allen▼
CLE
Rebounds7.5BetMGMOVER85%HIGH80%+18.5%10✓
Tyler Herro▼
MIA
Points18.5BetMGMOVER85%HIGH70%+16.3%11✗
Norman Powell▼
MIA
3PM2.5BetOnline.agOVER85%HIGH50%+10.0%2✗
Aaron Gordon▼
DEN
Points14.5DraftKingsOVER85%HIGH50%+8.0%17✓
Kyle Filipowski▼
UTA
Assists2.5DraftKingsOVER85%HIGH90%0.0%5✓
Brandin Podziemski▼
GSW
Assists4.5FanDuelOVER85%HIGH50%0.0%7✓
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼
ATL
Points18.5FanDuelOVER80%HIGH80%+6.8%20✓
Jalen Williams▼
OKC
Points14.5FanDuelUNDER80%HIGH30%NaN%18✗
Max Christie▼
DAL
Rebounds2.5BetOnline.agOVER80%HIGH40%+12.0%3✓
Jabari Smith Jr.▼
HOU
Points14.5FanDuelOVER80%HIGH70%0.0%21✓
Jay Huff▼
IND
Blocks1.5DraftKingsUNDER80%HIGH70%+12.2%1✓
Pascal Siakam▼
IND
Rebounds5.5BetOnline.agOVER80%HIGH60%+10.3%6✓
Andrew Wiggins▼
MIA
Points11.5BetMGMOVER80%HIGH80%+19.3%12✓
Tyler Herro▼
MIA
3PM2.5DraftKingsOVER80%HIGH40%+12.6%1✗
Saddiq Bey▼
NOP
Assists3.5DraftKingsOVER80%HIGH40%0.0%2✗
RJ Barrett▼
TOR
Assists4.5ProjOVER80%HIGH20%—4✗
Aaron Gordon▼
DEN
Assists2.5DraftKingsOVER80%HIGH70%+7.0%1✗
Cameron Johnson▼
DEN
Rebounds3.5DraftKingsUNDER80%HIGH60%0.0%4✗
De'Anthony Melton▼
GSW
Blocks0.5BetMGMUNDER80%HIGH60%———
Brandin Podziemski▼
GSW
PRA26.5BetOnline.agOVER80%HIGH40%0.0%39✓
Nolan Traore▼
BKN
R+A6.5FanDuelOVER78%HIGH40%NaN%8✓
CJ McCollum▼
ATL
Rebounds3.5ProjUNDER75%HIGH70%+10.0%5✗
Jake LaRavia▼
LAL
Points9.5FanDuelUNDER75%HIGH100%NaN%0✓
Nolan Traore▼
BKN
Assists4.5DraftKingsOVER75%HIGH40%NaN%7✓
Toumani Camara▼
POR
3PM2.5FanDuelOVER75%MEDIUM40%+10.0%2✗
Amen Thompson▼
HOU
Assists5.5FanDuelUNDER75%MEDIUM60%0.0%3✓
Jarace Walker▼
IND
Points13.5DraftKingsUNDER75%MEDIUM30%+8.9%5✓
RJ Barrett▼
TOR
Points20.5ProjOVER75%HIGH60%—18✗
Aaron Gordon▼
DEN
3PM1.5DraftKingsOVER75%MEDIUM50%+6.0%0✗
De'Anthony Melton▼
GSW
Points17.5BetOnline.agOVER75%MEDIUM40%———
Brandin Podziemski▼
GSW
Points15.5BetMGMOVER75%MEDIUM40%0.0%22✓
Jake LaRavia▼
LAL
Rebounds3.5FanDuelOVER70%MEDIUM50%NaN%2✗
Nolan Traore▼
BKN
Rebounds1.5BetOnline.agOVER70%MEDIUM60%NaN%1✗
Nolan Traore▼
BKN
3PM1.5BetOnline.agUNDER70%MEDIUM60%NaN%1✓
Isaiah Hartenstein▼
OKC
Assists3.5BovadaOVER70%MEDIUM60%—3✗
Jalen Williams▼
OKC
Assists4.5FanDuelOVER70%MEDIUM50%NaN%8✓
Max Christie▼
DAL
3PM2.5BetRiversOVER70%MEDIUM40%+8.0%1✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼
HOU
3PM2.5BetOnline.agUNDER70%MEDIUM60%0.0%2✓
Amen Thompson▼
HOU
Points17.5FanDuelOVER70%MEDIUM70%0.0%18✓
Jarace Walker▼
IND
Rebounds6.5BetMGMUNDER70%MEDIUM60%+10.9%1✓
Andrew Wiggins▼
MIA
Rebounds4.5BetOnline.agOVER70%MEDIUM60%+15.5%1✗
RJ Barrett▼
TOR
3PM1.5ProjOVER70%MEDIUM40%—2✓
RJ Barrett▼
TOR
STL+BLK1.5ProjUNDER70%MEDIUM90%—0✓
Aaron Gordon▼
DEN
Rebounds5.5DraftKingsUNDER70%MEDIUM70%+5.0%7✗
De'Anthony Melton▼
GSW
Steals1.5FanDuelOVER70%MEDIUM50%———
Brandin Podziemski▼
GSW
3PM1.5DraftKingsOVER70%MEDIUM60%0.0%3✓
CJ McCollum▼
ATL
Assists4.5ProjOVER65%MEDIUM50%+12.0%2✗
CJ McCollum▼
ATL
STL+BLK1.5ProjOVER65%MEDIUM30%+9.0%0✗
CJ McCollum▼
ATL
Points20.5ProjOVER65%MEDIUM40%+8.0%21✓
Jake LaRavia▼
LAL
P+R13.5DraftKingsUNDER65%MEDIUM90%NaN%2✓
Nolan Traore▼
BKN
Points11.5BetOnline.agOVER65%MEDIUM30%NaN%9✗
Isaiah Hartenstein▼
OKC
PRA20.5DraftKingsOVER65%MEDIUM40%—25✓
Isaac Okoro▼
CHI
Points8.5DraftKingsOVER65%MEDIUM60%—20✓
Jalen Williams▼
OKC
3PM0.5BetOnline.agOVER65%MEDIUM40%NaN%0✗
Max Christie▼
DAL
Points10.5ProjUNDER65%MEDIUM50%+5.0%5✓
Jabari Smith Jr.▼
HOU
Blocks0.5BetMGMUNDER65%LOW60%0.0%1✗
Amen Thompson▼
HOU
PRA30.5FanDuelOVER65%LOW60%0.0%29✗
Andrew Wiggins▼
MIA
Assists2.5DraftKingsOVER65%MEDIUM40%+10.7%0✗
Herbert Jones▼
NOP
Rebounds3.5ProjUNDER65%MEDIUM90%—2✓
Saddiq Bey▼
NOP
Rebounds5.5BetMGMUNDER65%MEDIUM60%0.0%3✓
De'Anthony Melton▼
GSW
Rebounds3.5CaesarsUNDER65%MEDIUM30%———
CJ McCollum▼
ATL
3PM2.5ProjUNDER60%MEDIUM70%+7.0%3✗
Derrick White▼
BOS
Points17.5BetMGMUNDER30%LOW60%+11.5%10✓

Results & Analysis

54.6%119/218 picks hit
39 close calls
HIGH58%
77/133
LOW67%
10/15
MEDIUM46%
32/70
OVER48%
54/113
UNDER62%
65/105

Why Picks Missed

Close Calls (39)Narrowly missed (scaled by prop type)

+1.5Jalen WilsonAssistsUNDER 0.5→2
+1.5CJ McCollumReboundsUNDER 3.5→5
+1.5Sam HauserPointsUNDER 8.5→10
-1.5Saddiq BeyAssistsOVER 3.5→2
-1.5P.J. WashingtonReboundsOVER 6.5→5

Biggest Misses (4)Way off (scaled by prop type)

-10.5Pascal SiakamPointsOVER 21.5 → 11

Siakam sat most of the second half with Indiana down 30+ early in the 3rd quarter — played just 21 minutes instead of the projected 30+; game flow capped usage and shot attempts.

-10.5Pascal SiakamP+ROVER 27.5 → 17

Blowout loss limited Siakam to 21 minutes (vs 30+ expected); Indiana pulled starters mid-3rd quarter, derailing scoring and rebounding opportunity, on pace early but lost all 4th quarter run.

-10.5Pascal SiakamP+ROVER 27.5 → 17

See above; Siakam's rebounding also crumbled as LAC shot over 60% before the starters were benched, limiting chance for boards along with lost minutes.

-8.5Herbert JonesPointsOVER 10.5 → 2

Only attempted 2 field goals (season-low) as NOP offense was run heavily through interior and bench guards; minutes/projected usage did not materialize.

Lessons for Tomorrow

  • -Aggressively downgrade stat OVERS and projected minutes in all high blowout risk games — use dynamic, game-flow driven minute projections to prevent overconfidence in starters’ stat lines.
  • -Apply steeper blowout and role-uncertainty discounts to minute projections and usage for high-confidence over picks.
  • -Blend historical stats and recent averages using variance-sensitive weights — do not overweight last-5/10 performances for scoring props.
  • -Flag props as 'high volatility' when based on low event counts or heavy recent-trend bias without strong season-long support.
  • -Give greater weight to recent opponent defensive schemes and coaching patterns in player prop modeling.
  • -Flag and reduce confidence on all props for players with recent drastic role or usage changes, and increase model skepticism of unproven recent trends.
  • -Explicitly model garbage-time and bench run for both OVER/UNDER projections where spreads are likely to balloon beyond double digits.

Game Recaps

ATL102
@
BOS109
Final

Pritchard erupts for 36 as Celtics hold off Hawks in Boston

comebackupset
Payton Pritchard 36p/7r/4aJalen Johnson 29p/6r/6a
BKN99
@
LAL116
Final

Dončić’s late flurry and Reaves’ dagger bury Brooklyn

blowout
Luka Dončić 41p/8r/3a
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.
CJ McCollum
Rebounds 3.5
UNDER
75%
Miss
CJ McCollum
Assists 4.5
OVER65%Miss
CJ McCollum
Stocks 1.5
OVER65%Miss
CJ McCollum
Points 20.5
OVER65%Hit
8 picks on this matchupShow More →
BKN@LAL
Board Readyscheduled

Open this matchup to read the full game preview and reasoning.

Top Props
Nolan Traore
R+A 6.5
OVER78%Hit
Jake LaRavia
Points 9.5
UNDER75%Hit
Nolan Traore
Assists 4.5
OVER75%Hit
Jake LaRavia
Rebounds 3.5
OVER70%Miss
Nolan Traore
Rebounds 1.5
OVER70%Miss
Nolan Traore
3PM 1.5
UNDER70%Hit
8 picks on this matchupShow More →
CHI@OKC
Board Readyscheduled

Open this matchup to read the full game preview and reasoning.

Top Props
Isaiah Hartenstein
Rebounds 8.5
OVER85%Hit
Isaac Okoro
Blocks 0.5
UNDER85%Miss
Jalen Williams
Points 14.5
UNDER80%Miss
Isaiah Hartenstein
Assists 3.5
OVER70%Miss
Jalen Williams
Assists 4.5
OVER70%Hit
Isaiah Hartenstein
PRA 20.5
OVER65%Hit
8 picks on this matchupShow More →
DAL@POR
Board Readyscheduled

Open this matchup to read the full game preview and reasoning.

Top Props
Toumani Camara
Rebounds 4.5
OVER85%Hit
Toumani Camara
Assists 2.5
UNDER85%Miss
Toumani Camara
Blocks 0.5
UNDER85%Miss
Max Christie
Blocks 0.5
UNDER85%Miss
Max Christie
Rebounds 2.5
OVER80%Hit
Toumani Camara
3PM 2.5
OVER75%Miss
8 picks on this matchupShow More →
HOU@MEM
Board Readyscheduled

Open this matchup to read the full game preview and reasoning.

Top Props
Amen Thompson
Rebounds 7.5
OVER85%Hit
Jabari Smith Jr.
Rebounds 7.5
OVER85%Hit
Jabari Smith Jr.
Points 14.5
OVER80%Hit
Amen Thompson
Assists 5.5
UNDER75%Hit
Jabari Smith Jr.
3PM 2.5
UNDER70%Hit
Amen Thompson
Points 17.5
OVER70%Hit
8 picks on this matchupShow More →
LAC@IND
Board Readyscheduled

Open this matchup to read the full game preview and reasoning.

Top Props
Kawhi Leonard
Points 28.5
OVER85%Miss
Pascal Siakam
Points 21.5
OVER85%Miss
Jay Huff
Rebounds 4.5
UNDER85%Hit
Andrew Nembhard
Assists 7.5
UNDER85%Miss
Jay Huff
Blocks 1.5
UNDER80%Hit
Pascal Siakam
Rebounds 5.5
OVER80%Hit
8 picks on this matchupShow More →
MIA@CLE
Board Readyscheduled

Open this matchup to read the full game preview and reasoning.

Top Props
Andrew Wiggins
3PM 1.5
OVER85%Hit
Jarrett Allen
Rebounds 7.5
OVER85%Hit
Tyler Herro
Points 18.5
OVER85%Miss
Norman Powell
3PM 2.5
OVER85%Miss
Andrew Wiggins
Points 11.5
OVER80%Hit
Tyler Herro
3PM 2.5
OVER80%Miss
8 picks on this matchupShow More →
NOP@TOR
Board Readyscheduled

Open this matchup to read the full game preview and reasoning.

Top Props
Trey Murphy III
Points 0.5
UNDER100%
Saddiq Bey
Assists 3.5
OVER80%Miss
RJ Barrett
Assists 4.5
OVER80%Miss
RJ Barrett
Points 20.5
OVER75%Miss
RJ Barrett
3PM 1.5
OVER70%Hit
RJ Barrett
Stocks 1.5
UNDER70%Hit
8 picks on this matchupShow More →
UTA@DEN
Board Readyscheduled

Open this matchup to read the full game preview and reasoning.

Top Props
Nikola Jokić
Assists 11.5
OVER90%Hit
Ace Bailey
Blocks 0.5
OVER90%Miss
Aaron Gordon
Points 14.5
OVER85%Hit
Kyle Filipowski
Assists 2.5
OVER85%Hit
Aaron Gordon
Assists 2.5
OVER80%Miss
Cameron Johnson
Rebounds 3.5
UNDER80%Miss
8 picks on this matchupShow More →
WAS@GSW
Board Readyscheduled

Open this matchup to read the full game preview and reasoning.

Top Props
Brandin Podziemski
Assists 4.5
OVER85%Hit
De'Anthony Melton
Blocks 0.5
UNDER80%
Brandin Podziemski
PRA 26.5
OVER80%Hit
De'Anthony Melton
Points 17.5
OVER75%
Brandin Podziemski
Points 15.5
OVER75%Hit
De'Anthony Melton
Steals 1.5
OVER70%
8 picks on this matchupShow More →
Austin Reaves 26p/8r/5a
CHI113
@
OKC131
Final

OKC flips the switch in the third and buries Chicago 131-113

blowout
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 25p/2r/5aCason Wallace 21p/5r/2a
DAL100
@
POR93
Final

Bagley’s late surge powers Dallas past Portland, 100-93

comebackupset
Marvin Bagley III 26p/9r/3aCooper Flagg 24p/3r/2a/4stl
HOU119
@
MEM109
Final

Prosper’s 31 Bursts Houston Past Memphis in Road Win

upset
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 31p/7r/2aKevin Durant 25p/6r/10a
LAC114
@
IND113
Final

Kawhi’s buzzer-beater caps Clippers’ wild escape in Indianapolis

comebackclutchupset
Kawhi Leonard 28p/8r/4aDarius Garland 30p/0r/5a
MIA128
@
CLE149
Final

Cavs torch Heat for 149 in wire-to-wire offensive avalanche

blowoutcareer-high
Max Strus 29p/8r/1aEvan Mobley 23p/10r/3a
NOP106
@
TOR119
Final

Barnes controls the floor as Raptors pull away from Pelicans

blowout
Scottie Barnes 23p/6r/12aZion Williamson 22p/7r/4a
UTA129
@
DEN135
Final

Jokić, Murray close with a 16-0 sprint to stun Utah

comebackclutchtriple-double
Nikola Jokić 33p/15r/12aJamal Murray 31p/6r/14a
WAS126
@
GSW131
Final

Porziņģis and Santos hold off Wizards in a wild 131-126 finish

comebackhigh-scoringrivalry
Kristaps Porziņģis 28p/8r/3aGui Santos 27p/4r/4a