AI Model:

Scottie Barnes▲

TOR · PF

PPG

18.6

RPG

7.8

APG

5.4

L5 PPG

16.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.8

18.6

16.8

RPG-0.4

7.8

7.4

APG+1.6

5.4

7.0

SPG0.0

1.4

BPG-0.3

1.5

1.2

UNDER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

18.5

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 16 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 17 pts

HOU

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs HOU: 24 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 9 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 14 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 14 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DEN: 15 pts

PHX

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs PHX: 17 pts

UTA

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs UTA: 20 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 18.5BETMGM

58%

REB

UNDER 7.5BOVADA

57%

AST

OVER 5.5BETRIVERS

55%

3PM

UNDER 1.5BETMGM

66%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

61%

BLK

UNDER 1.5STAKE

74%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

56%

OVER 2.5

60%

PRA

UNDER 34.5

54%

P+A

UNDER 24.5STAKE

53%

P+R

UNDER 27.5STAKE

55%

R+A

OVER 14.5STAKE

63%

UNDER 0.5

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.4

16.8

RPG

7.0

5.9

APG

5.2

5.0

vs LAC (H2H)7 games

PPG

18.0

RPG

6.7

APG

4.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Pascal Siakam	4	26	48%	-10.2%	medium
Evan Mobley	3	22	65%	+9.8%	medium
Paolo Banchero	3	22	35%	-14.9%	medium
Jalen Johnson	4	21	75%

Barnes’ all-around floor is solid, but scoring is trending below his season mark

Scottie Barnes is averaging 18.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 5.4 APG on the season, but his last 10 drop to 16.4 PPG and 6.0 RPG while assists hold at 5.3. His last 5 are a little stronger in playmaking at 7.0 APG, yet his points still sit at 16.8 and his minutes are down to 30.8 in that span. He has a usable matchup profile here because the opponent is without Ivica Zubac, and Barnes has also been productive in the head-to-head sample at 18.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG, and 4.9 APG across 7 games. With teammate Immanuel Quickley doubtful, Barnes should keep a healthy creation load, but the recent scoring trend keeps the points side from being an automatic over.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.8(↓ from 18.6)

RPG

7.4(↓ from 7.8)

APG

7.0(↑ from 5.4)

Key Matchup

The opponent is missing Ivica Zubac, which removes a major interior presence, but there is no specific defender matchup data to isolate beyond the listed key defenders. Barnes has averaged 18.0 PPG, 6.714285714285714 RPG, and 4.857142857142857 APG in 7 games versus this opponent, which supports a stable all-around projection.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Scottie Barnes▼	Points	18.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	17.5→18.5	9	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	7.5→8.5	8	✗
Scottie Barnes▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	40%		12	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	70%	FLIP	1	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		2	✗
Scottie Barnes▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	70%		1	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	40%	FLIP	3	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	50%		1	✗
Scottie Barnes▼	PRA	34.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	31.5→34.5	29	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	P+A	24.5	UNDER	53%MEDIUM	1/2	80%		21	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	P+R	27.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	—	17	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	R+A	14.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	—	20	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	—	FLIP	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PTS16.5UNDER24%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%+9.8% edge▼

REB6.5UNDER52%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 6x5/2025%+28.3% edge▼

P+R20.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

3PA2.5UNDER50%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

FTM2.5UNDER26%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA31.5UNDER23%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x4/2020%+26.7% edge▼

STL2UNDER44%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)6/2030%▼

P+A22UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

AST7.5OVER5%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

FTA3UNDER22%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

R+A12UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

BLK1UNDER72%gbt_blocksAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x5/2025%▼

Featured Pick

Scottie Barnes

Blocks UNDER 1.5HIGH

Barnes’ blocks are 1.5 for the season, but his last 10 are only 1.1 and his last 5 are 1.2, so the recent form sits clearly below the line. The under is also priced as the stronger side on the board, making it the cleanest play among his listed props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
James Harden	1	6	8	40%	40%
Kawhi Leonard	1	5	9	50%	56%
Kris Dunn	2	3	5	100%	125%
Brook Lopez	2	3	3	50%	75%
Ivica Zubac	1	3	8	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 18.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 18.6, but his last 10 are 16.4 and last 5 are 16.8, so the recent scoring profile sits below this line. The value board also shows UNDER 18.5 as the best side at betmgm with a 1.5% edge.

reboundsUNDER 7.557%MEDIUM

Barnes averages 7.8 RPG for the season, but his last 10 are down to 6.0 and his last 5 are 7.4, which makes 7.5 a fair line with slight lean down. The value card shows UNDER 7.5 with a 2.9% edge.

assistsOVER 5.555%MEDIUM

He averages 5.4 APG on the season and 7.0 APG over the last 5, with Quickley doubtful, which supports a stronger playmaking role. The value board lists OVER 5.5 assists as the best side with a 1.3% edge, though confidence stays moderate because the season mean is still below the line.

threesUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

Barnes averages only 0.88 threes per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 10, which is still short of a strong over profile at 1.5. The value data also favors UNDER 1.5 threes.

stealsUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 steals on the season and 1.3 over the last 10, so 1.5 is slightly above his typical output. With a fairly high variance profile, the safer side is under.

blocksUNDER 1.574%HIGH

Barnes averages 1.5 blocks on the season but only 1.1 over the last 10 and 1.2 over the last 5, so the recent trend is clearly below this number. That makes the under the cleaner side despite his season-long shot-blocking rate.

stocksOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

He combines 1.4 steals and 1.5 blocks for a season average of 2.9 stocks, and his last 5 are still 2.6. This is a volatile stat, but his season baseline supports the over side more than the under.

turnoversOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

Barnes is at 2.6 turnovers per game in both the season and last-5 context, so a projected 2.5 line leans over. His increased on-ball role keeps turnover pressure elevated.

praUNDER 34.554%MEDIUM

Using season averages, Barnes projects around 31.8 PRA, while his recent scoring and rebound rates are below season baseline. Combo props carry extra variance, so the conservative lean is under.

paUNDER 24.553%MEDIUM

His season P+A sits at 24.0 and his last 5 are 23.8, making 24.5 a touch high. The recent trend is not strong enough to justify an over at this number.

prUNDER 27.555%MEDIUM

Barnes averages 26.4 points plus rebounds on the season and 24.2 over the last 5, both below 27.5. The market is asking for an above-average scoring/rebounding night that recent form does not fully support.

raOVER 14.563%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists average is 13.2, but his last 5 rise to 14.4 and Quickley being doubtful helps the assist side. This is close, but the recent distribution supports a narrow over lean.

double_doubleUNDER 0.558%MEDIUM

Barnes has strong multi-category production, but his recent points and rebounds are not consistently near double-double thresholds together. The safer read is under unless his minutes and scoring spike.

timelineUNDER 18.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Barnes’ all-around floor is solid, but scoring is trending below his season mark

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 18.5 PTS