AI Model:

RJ Barrett▼

TOR · SF

PPG

19.1

RPG

5.3

APG

3.3

L5 PPG

21.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.5

19.1

21.6

RPG-1.3

5.3

4.0

APG-0.3

3.3

3.0

SPG-0.5

0.7

0.2

BPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

OVER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

14.5

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 25 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 31 pts

HOU

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs HOU: 25 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 16 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 22 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 27 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 23 pts

DEN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DEN: 18 pts

PHX

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs PHX: 13 pts

UTA

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs UTA: 27 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 14.5STAKE

66%

REB

OVER 4.5STAKE

56%

AST

UNDER 3.5STAKE

60%

3PM

OVER 1.5

58%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

68%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

OVER 2

55%

P+R

OVER 18.5STAKE

57%

P+A

OVER 17.5STAKE

58%

R+A

UNDER 6.5STAKE

60%

UNDER 0.5

72%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.3

18.8

RPG

6.0

5.0

APG

3.4

2.4

vs LAC (H2H)12 games

PPG

20.1

RPG

6.1

APG

3.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Dyson Daniels	4	18	53%	+4.1%	medium
Amen Thompson	2	11	50%	+0.8%	low
Michael Porter Jr.	2	10	31%	-24.2%	low
P.J. Washington	2	10	70%

Barrett’s scoring is steady, but the market is pricing in a modest night

RJ Barrett is averaging 19.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 3.3 APG this season over 30 MPG, with his last 10 rising to 22.7 PPG and 30.7 MPG. The recent scoring bump is real, but the season baseline still points closer to a 19-20 point expectation than an outsized explosion. Toronto also has a key teammate absence in Immanuel Quickley (16.9 PPG, 6 APG), which supports Barrett’s usage, while the Clippers’ defense data and the game environment suggest a more controlled projection than his hottest stretch. His matchup history is solid at 20.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, and 3.6 APG in 12 games versus this opponent.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.6(↑ from 19.1)

RPG

4.0(↓ from 5.3)

APG

3.0(→ from 3.3)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the best read is that the Clippers have a stronger defensive profile than Toronto’s average opponent, with a 112.87 defensive rating and -0.574 scoring suppression. Barrett also has one of his better history samples against this opponent at 20.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, and 3.6 APG across 12 games.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
RJ Barrett▼	Points	14.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	FLIP	12	✗
RJ Barrett▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	FLIP	6	✓
RJ Barrett▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	3.3→3.5	4	✗
RJ Barrett▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1.5→1.8	0	✗
RJ Barrett▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%	FLIP	1	✓
RJ Barrett▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	50%	FLIP	0	✓
RJ Barrett▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	90%	1→1.5	1	✓
RJ Barrett▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%	1.9→2	1	✗
RJ Barrett▼	P+R	18.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	FLIP	18	✗
RJ Barrett▼	P+A	17.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	FLIP	16	✗
RJ Barrett▼	R+A	6.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	6.5→8.6	10	✗
RJ Barrett▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+R26OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+A24OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

PTS21.5UNDER1%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

REB5.5OVER1%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

3PM1OVER2%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

PRA29.5UNDER16%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

3PA5UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

AST3UNDER1%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x7/2035%▼

R+A8UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)7/2035%▼

FTM3UNDER27%gbtAvoid (6/20)UNDER 3x6/2030%▼

FTA4UNDER5%gbtAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

RJ Barrett

Points OVER 14.5HIGH

This number is well below Barrett’s 19.1 PPG season average and 22.7 PPG over the last 10, giving him a sizable cushion. Even if the recent scoring surge cools, the combination of his usage and Quickley being doubtful makes 14.5 too low to pass up.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Derrick Jones Jr.	1	4	0	0%	0%
Kawhi Leonard	1	2	4	100%	100%
Bennedict Mathurin	1	2	2	100%	100%
Nicolas Batum	1	2	0	0%	0%
Darius Garland	1	1	9	80%	90%

pointsOVER 14.566%MEDIUM

Barrett’s season mean is 19.1 PPG and his last 10 is 22.7 PPG, both comfortably above 14.5. Quickley being doubtful should help his usage, though the recent hot run makes the over less comfortable than the raw gap suggests.

reboundsOVER 4.556%MEDIUM

He averages 5.3 RPG on the season and 5.1 over his last 10, with 5.73 RPG at home. The edge is smaller than points, but the line still sits below his normal output.

assistsUNDER 3.560%MEDIUM

Barrett is at 3.3 APG for the season and 2.5 over the last 10, which is below 3.5. Even with Quickley out, his recent playmaking has not consistently cleared this number.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.77 made threes per game this season and 2.1 over the last 10, so 1.5 is below his typical volume. His away three rate is 1.64, still supportive of an over lean.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

Season average is 0.7 steals per game and home mean is 0.8, so 0.5 is reachable. The recent last-5 mark of 0.2 adds some caution, so confidence stays moderate.

blocksUNDER 0.568%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.3 blocks per game on the season and 0.5 over the last 10. Because this is a low-volume stat with limited stability, the under is the cleaner side.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

Barrett’s season stocks average is 1.06 and his last 10 is 1.0, both below 1.5. Given the variance in steals and blocks, the combined prop is still more likely to land short than clear a higher bar.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

His recent turnover volume sits at 2.2 over the last 5 and 1.9 over the last 20, with 2.4 at home. That leaves this right on the edge, but the recent usage burden makes 2.0 a slight over lean.

prOVER 18.557%MEDIUM

He averages 19.1 points and 5.3 rebounds, and his recent scoring form is above season average. The combo line is reachable, but combo props carry extra variance, so confidence stays limited.

paOVER 17.558%MEDIUM

Barrett’s 19.1 PPG plus 3.3 APG season baseline points to a total above 17.5 with room to spare. His recent assists are softer, but the scoring floor keeps this side viable.

raUNDER 6.560%MEDIUM

He averages 5.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists, but the market line of 6.5 sits above his rebound-driven combo profile. His recent assist trend is also below season average, which limits upside here.

double_doubleUNDER 0.572%HIGH

He does not have strong double-double frequency signals from the provided averages, with 19.1/5.3/3.3 being well short of a standard DD profile. Rebounds and assists are both useful, but not enough to make this likely.

timelineOVER 14.5 PTS