AI Model:

Jamal Shead▲

TOR · PG

PPG

6.5

RPG

1.9

APG

5.2

L5 PPG

3.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.1

6.5

3.4

RPG-0.5

1.9

1.4

APG+1.4

5.2

6.6

SPG-0.9

0.9

0.0

BPG+0.2

0.2

0.4

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 2 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 0 pts

HOU

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs HOU: 2 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 9 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 6 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 4 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 0 pts

DEN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DEN: 4 pts

PHX

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs PHX: 2 pts

UTA

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs UTA: 7 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

84%

AST

UNDER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

REB

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

79%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

STL

OVER 0.5

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

67%

OVER 1.5

63%

P+A

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.5

4.9

RPG

1.8

2.1

APG

4.4

5.0

vs LAC (H2H)2 games

PPG

7.5

RPG

2.0

APG

6.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tyrese Maxey	4	24	75%	+24.5%	medium
Jalen Brunson	4	14	53%	+10.1%	medium
Donovan Mitchell	2	11	69%	+17.2%	low
Payton Pritchard	3	10	20%

Assist-heavy role keeps Shead live, but points remain capped

Jamal Shead is averaging 6.5 PPG, 1.9 RPG, and 5.2 APG on 22 MPG this season, with his last 5 showing a clear assist spike to 6.6 APG while scoring just 3.4 PPG. The matchup setup is better for playmaking than scoring: he has 7.5 PPG and 6.5 APG in 2 games vs this opponent, and the opponent is missing Ivica Zubac, Bradley Beal, and Jordan Miller. With Immanuel Quickley doubtful, Shead’s ball-handling path stays intact, but his recent scoring form and the opponent’s scoring suppression make his points more fragile than his assists.

Stat Trends

PPG

3.4(↓ from 6.5)

APG

6.6(↑ from 5.2)

RPG

1.4(↓ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

He has no specific defender matchup data. The team context is still notable: the opponent has a 112.87 defensive rating and 100 pace, plus the opponent absences include Ivica Zubac, Bradley Beal, and Jordan Miller.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jamal Shead▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	2/2	100%	8	✓
Jamal Shead▼	Assists	6.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	1/2	80%	4	✓
Jamal Shead▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	79%HIGH	1/2	90%	0	✓
Jamal Shead▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	90%	2	✗
Jamal Shead▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	30%	2	✓
Jamal Shead▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	90%	3	✗
Jamal Shead▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	30%	2	✓
Jamal Shead▼	P+A	11.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	12	✗

ML Scout Analysis

3PA2.5UNDER14%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

PRA11.5OVER47%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 5x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

P+R7OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

PTS6OVER3%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

REB1UNDER6%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

FTA1.5OVER24%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 5x10/2050%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%▼

P+A11.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 5x10/2050%▼

AST5OVER9%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

FTM1UNDER13%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Jamal Shead

Points UNDER 9.5HIGH

This is the strongest number on the card because the season average is 6.5 PPG and the last 5 are just 3.4 PPG. The value data backs it hard, with a 24.0% edge to the UNDER at DraftKings and 42.3 EV per 100.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Kris Dunn	2	7	5	50%	75%
Darius Garland	1	7	9	60%	90%
James Harden	1	4	5	29%	36%
Jordan Miller	1	4	3	50%	75%
Kobe Sanders	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 9.584%HIGH

His season mean is 6.5 PPG and his last 5 are only 3.4 PPG, well below the 9.5 line. The value data also shows a 24.0% edge to the UNDER at DraftKings with an estimated 42.3 EV per 100.

assistsUNDER 6.571%HIGH

He averages 5.2 APG on the season and 5.2 APG over the last 10, so 6.5 is a stretch despite the 6.6 APG last 5. The season baseline still points slightly below the number, and the prop variance is high enough to keep confidence moderate.

reboundsUNDER 2.579%HIGH

Shead is at 1.9 RPG for the season and 1.6 RPG over the last 10, which is below 2.5. His recent role has not translated into rebound volume, making the UNDER the cleaner side.

threesUNDER 1.574%HIGH

He averages 1.01 threes per game season-long, but only 0.4 over the last 10 and 0.2 over the last 5. That recent drop supports fading the 1.5 line.

stealsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals per game on the season, which clears a 0.5 line, though his last 5 have been 0.0. Because the recent trend is weak, this is only a low-confidence OVER.

stocksUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.06 and the last 10 are 0.7, both below a 1.5 threshold. The combined category adds variance, so the UNDER is the more conservative call.

turnoversOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

He has 1.4 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 1.2 away, with multiple recent games at 1-2 turnovers and a 14-assist outing showing expanded ball-handling. A projected 1.5 line is close enough to lean OVER on workload.

paUNDER 11.566%MEDIUM

His season combined points-plus-assists profile is 11.7 if you sum the averages, but the recent scoring dip makes the 11.5 line vulnerable if the assists don't fully compensate. Combo props carry more variance, so the UNDER gets the lean.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS