Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 4 | 24 | 75% | +24.5% | medium |
| Jalen Brunson | 4 | 14 | 53% | +10.1% | medium |
| Donovan Mitchell | 2 | 11 | 69% | +17.2% | low |
| Payton Pritchard | 3 | 10 | 20% |
Jamal Shead is averaging 6.5 PPG, 1.9 RPG, and 5.2 APG on 22 MPG this season, with his last 5 showing a clear assist spike to 6.6 APG while scoring just 3.4 PPG. The matchup setup is better for playmaking than scoring: he has 7.5 PPG and 6.5 APG in 2 games vs this opponent, and the opponent is missing Ivica Zubac, Bradley Beal, and Jordan Miller. With Immanuel Quickley doubtful, Shead’s ball-handling path stays intact, but his recent scoring form and the opponent’s scoring suppression make his points more fragile than his assists.
He has no specific defender matchup data. The team context is still notable: the opponent has a 112.87 defensive rating and 100 pace, plus the opponent absences include Ivica Zubac, Bradley Beal, and Jordan Miller.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jamal Shead▼ | Points | 9.5 | UNDER | 84%HIGH | 2/2 | 100% | 8 | ✓ |
Jamal Shead▼ | Assists | 6.5 | UNDER | 71%HIGH | 1/2 | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
Jamal Shead▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | UNDER | 79%HIGH | 1/2 | 90% | 0 | ✓ |
Jamal Shead▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 74%HIGH | — | 90% | 2 | ✗ |
Jamal Shead▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 2 | ✓ |
Jamal Shead▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | — | 90% | 3 | ✗ |
Jamal Shead▼ | Turnovers | 1.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 2 | ✓ |
Jamal Shead▼ | P+A | 11.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 12 | ✗ |
This is the strongest number on the card because the season average is 6.5 PPG and the last 5 are just 3.4 PPG. The value data backs it hard, with a 24.0% edge to the UNDER at DraftKings and 42.3 EV per 100.
| medium |
| Stephen Curry | 2 | 10 | 47% | +3.4% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | 2 | 7 | 5 | 50% | 75% |
| Darius Garland | 1 | 7 | 9 | 60% | 90% |
| James Harden | 1 | 4 | 5 | 29% | 36% |
| Jordan Miller | 1 | 4 | 3 | 50% | 75% |
| Kobe Sanders | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 6.5 PPG and his last 5 are only 3.4 PPG, well below the 9.5 line. The value data also shows a 24.0% edge to the UNDER at DraftKings with an estimated 42.3 EV per 100.
He averages 5.2 APG on the season and 5.2 APG over the last 10, so 6.5 is a stretch despite the 6.6 APG last 5. The season baseline still points slightly below the number, and the prop variance is high enough to keep confidence moderate.
Shead is at 1.9 RPG for the season and 1.6 RPG over the last 10, which is below 2.5. His recent role has not translated into rebound volume, making the UNDER the cleaner side.
He averages 1.01 threes per game season-long, but only 0.4 over the last 10 and 0.2 over the last 5. That recent drop supports fading the 1.5 line.
He averages 0.9 steals per game on the season, which clears a 0.5 line, though his last 5 have been 0.0. Because the recent trend is weak, this is only a low-confidence OVER.
His season stocks average is 1.06 and the last 10 are 0.7, both below a 1.5 threshold. The combined category adds variance, so the UNDER is the more conservative call.
He has 1.4 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 1.2 away, with multiple recent games at 1-2 turnovers and a 14-assist outing showing expanded ball-handling. A projected 1.5 line is close enough to lean OVER on workload.
His season combined points-plus-assists profile is 11.7 if you sum the averages, but the recent scoring dip makes the 11.5 line vulnerable if the assists don't fully compensate. Combo props carry more variance, so the UNDER gets the lean.