AI Model:

Derrick Jones Jr.▲

LAC · SF

PPG

11.1

RPG

3.2

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

11.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.5

11.1

11.6

RPG+0.8

3.2

4.0

APG+1.1

1.5

2.6

SPG-0.2

1.0

0.8

BPG-0.5

1.1

0.6

OVER 11 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

MEM

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MEM: 16 pts

NYK

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs NYK: 16 pts

MIN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs MIN: 12 pts

CHI

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CHI: 10 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 2 pts

SAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs SAS: 10 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 4 pts

NOP

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs NOP: 22 pts

DAL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs DAL: 15 pts

MIL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs MIL: 7 pts

Over 11

Under 11

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 11

55%

REB

OVER 3

58%

AST

OVER 1.5

56%

3PM

OVER 1

54%

STL

OVER 1

57%

BLK

OVER 1

52%

STL+BLK

OVER 2

60%

UNDER 1

67%

PRA

UNDER 16

62%

P+A

UNDER 12.5

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.0

12.1

RPG

3.5

3.9

APG

1.3

2.2

vs TOR (H2H)8 games

PPG

8.5

RPG

3.1

APG

0.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Devin Booker	3	12	38%	-17.4%	medium
De'Aaron Fox	3	11	38%	-13.2%	medium
Trey Murphy III	3	10	83%	+16.0%	medium
Jamal Murray	2	10	17%

Minutes are solid, but scoring ceiling is capped against Toronto

Derrick Jones Jr. has been trending up, with season marks of 11.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 1.5 APG, while his last 10 jumps to 11.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG, and 2.1 APG on 30.6 MPG. The added opportunity from Bradley Beal, Ivica Zubac, and Jordan Miller being out supports his workload, but his versus-opponent history is much quieter at 8.5 PPG and 20.5 MPG across 8 games. Toronto’s defense profile also points to a tougher scoring environment, so his best path is through steady all-around production rather than a big points spike.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.6(↑ from 11.1)

RPG

4.0(↑ from 3.2)

APG

2.6(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed Raptors players. Toronto’s opponent profile shows a 112.3 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative three-point suppression, which adds some pressure to perimeter scoring efficiency.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Points	11	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		2	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Rebounds	3	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		7	✓
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		0	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	3PM	1	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	30%		0	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Steals	1	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	0.5→1	0	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Blocks	1	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	0.5→1	0	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	STL+BLK	2	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	30%	1.5→2	0	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Turnovers	1	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	90%		1	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	PRA	16	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	40%		9	✓
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	P+A	12.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	—	2	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS8.5OVER14%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x12/2060%+6.5% edge▼

REB3.5OVER28%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%+6.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA13.5OVER2%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x12/2060%+5.9% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.182▼

R+A5.5UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

P+R14OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

P+A11OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Derrick Jones Jr.

Turnovers UNDER 1.0HIGH

He is averaging just 0.8 turnovers per game on the season, 0.7 over the last 10, and 0.6 over the last 5. That combination of low usage mistakes and stable recent form makes this the cleanest edge in the profile.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Brandon Ingram	1	7	7	43%	50%
Scottie Barnes	1	1	0	0%	0%
RJ Barrett	1	1	0	0%	0%
Collin Murray-Boyles	1	1	0	0%	0%
Jamison Battle	1	0	3	50%	75%

pointsOVER 1155%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.05 and recent mean is 11.4, with home scoring at 12.0 PPG. The edge is modest because his vs-opponent sample is only 8.5 PPG, so this is not a strong over.

reboundsOVER 358%MEDIUM

He is averaging 3.2 RPG on the season and 4.4 RPG over his last 10, with 4.0 RPG in his last 5. Zubac being out can help the frontcourt rebounding environment, making 3.0 a reachable number.

assistsOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.45 APG, but recent form has risen to 2.1 APG and he has 2.6 APG over the last 5. The volatility is real with a 1.3 season standard deviation, so this stays a moderate-confidence lean.

threesOVER 154%MEDIUM

He averages 1.23 made threes per game on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, with 1.3 at home. The profile supports a narrow over, but the low volume keeps confidence controlled.

stealsOVER 157%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 1.0 SPG on the season and 1.1 over the last 20, with 1.5 SPG in the last 10. That gives him a workable floor for a one-steal line.

blocksOVER 152%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 BPG on the season and 1.0 over the last 10, which is strong for a wing. The issue is standard variance, so this is more of a thin over than a high-confidence play.

stocksOVER 260%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.05 and recent mean is 2.5, with 2.2 over the last 20. This is one of his cleaner all-around stat paths because both steals and blocks are meaningful every night.

turnoversUNDER 167%MEDIUM

He is only at 0.8 turnovers per game on the season and 0.7 over the last 10, with 0.6 over the last 5. Even with extra minutes, this profile still points below 1.0.

praUNDER 1662%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 15.75 using the provided means, and the last 5 trend is not far above that at 18.2 but still not dominant enough to justify an over with his opponent history. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is safer.

paUNDER 12.563%MEDIUM

Points plus assists projects to about 12.6 on season means, but his opponent history is only 9.0 combined P+A across 8 games. The recent assist spike helps, yet this remains a thin number.

timelineOVER 11 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Minutes are solid, but scoring ceiling is capped against Toronto

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

OVER 11 PTS