AI Model:

Ryan Rollins—

MIL · PG

PPG

16.8

RPG

4.6

APG

5.6

L5 PPG

18.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.8

16.8

18.6

RPG-0.2

4.6

4.4

APG+0.4

5.6

6.0

SPG+0.1

1.5

1.6

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

19.5

UTA

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs UTA: 13 pts

ORL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs ORL: 15 pts

PHX

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHX: 14 pts

MIA

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIA: 16 pts

ATL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ATL: 22 pts

IND

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs IND: 20 pts

CLE

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CLE: 19 pts

UTA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs UTA: 15 pts

PHX

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs PHX: 26 pts

LAC

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs LAC: 13 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

82%

AST

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

76%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

71%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

79%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

66%

OVER 3

58%

PRA

UNDER 28.5

67%

P+A

UNDER 25.5

62%

UNDER 0.5

74%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.2

18.0

RPG

4.6

5.0

APG

5.3

6.6

vs POR (H2H)3 games

PPG

7.0

RPG

2.0

APG

2.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tyrese Maxey	3	25	57%	+2.7%	medium
Immanuel Quickley	4	20	65%	+4.9%	medium
Jalen Pickett	2	17	44%	-14.0%	low
Jalen Brunson	3	16	71%

Rollins has a usage bump, but the numbers still lean UNDER on his inflated lines

Ryan Rollins has been steady lately, with 17.3 PPG, 6.4 APG, and 4.5 RPG over his last 10 while playing 32.2 MPG, and his season line sits close to that level at 16.8 PPG, 5.6 APG, and 4.6 RPG. The biggest boost comes from teammate absences: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr. are both out, which supports his ball-handling and shot volume. Even so, his last-20 scoring average is 16.9 and his season assist mean is 5.62, so the current market points are still a bit aggressive relative to his baseline. Portland’s opponent profile is not especially easy, and his prior history vs this opponent is muted at 7.0 PPG, 2.7 APG, and 17 MPG across 3 games.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.6(↑ from 16.8)

APG

6.0(↑ from 5.6)

RPG

4.4(→ from 4.6)

Key Matchup

Toumani Camara, Sidy Cissoko, and Scoot Henderson are listed as key defenders, but their minutes against Rollins are minimal in the data. The broader opponent profile shows a 117.08 defensive rating, 100 pace, 0.373 scoring suppression, and 0.639 three suppression, which is enough to keep the outlook from turning overly bullish.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Ryan Rollins▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	1/2	70%	FLIP	36	✗
Ryan Rollins▼	Assists	7.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	2/2	70%	FLIP	4	✓
Ryan Rollins▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%		4	✓
Ryan Rollins▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	FLIP	6	✗
Ryan Rollins▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	60%		2	✗
Ryan Rollins▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	79%HIGH	—	70%	FLIP	0	✓
Ryan Rollins▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	60%	FLIP	2	✓
Ryan Rollins▼	Turnovers	3	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	40%		5	✓
Ryan Rollins▼	PRA	28.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	26→28.5	44	✗
Ryan Rollins▼	P+A	25.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	22.5→25.5	40	✗
Ryan Rollins▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+A23.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R22UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x7/2035%▼

R+A10.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Ryan Rollins

Points UNDER 19.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season scoring mean is 16.8 and his last-20 is 16.9, both well below 19.5. The value props also show a strong UNDER signal at multiple books, including a 0.311 best edge at DraftKings and our_prob_under of 0.851.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Toumani Camara	1	3	2	100%	100%
Sidy Cissoko	1	3	0	0%	0%
Caleb Love	2	3	0	0%	0%
Kris Murray	1	1	0	0%	0%
Deni Avdija	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 19.582%HIGH

His season mean is 16.84 and last-20 mean is 16.9, both below 19.5. The value data also shows a strong UNDER edge at this number, with our_prob_under at 0.851 and best_edge at 0.311.

assistsUNDER 7.576%HIGH

He averages 5.62 APG for the season and 6.4 APG over the last 10, which is still short of 7.5. Even with teammate absences, his 7.5 assist value is expensive and the model data favors the UNDER.

reboundsUNDER 4.556%MEDIUM

His season rebound mean is 4.64 and his last-10 is 4.5, so this is close to the number but not enough to justify an OVER lean. The edge data for rebounds is weak and does not provide a positive value case.

threesUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.45 threes per game on the season and 2.7 over the last 10, but the line is still set at 2.5 and the value board leans UNDER at most books. The recent uptick is not enough to ignore the season-level mean.

stealsUNDER 1.571%HIGH

He averages 1.5 steals seasonally, but the line is high and the under is heavily juiced at the available book. With variance in steals, the safer side is UNDER.

blocksUNDER 0.579%HIGH

His season block average is only 0.4, so 0.5 is above his baseline. That makes the UNDER the cleaner side despite occasional recent blocks.

stocksUNDER 2.566%MEDIUM

He averages 1.91 stocks on the season and 1.9 over the last 10, which sits below a typical 2.5-style threshold. Stocks carry variance, so the UNDER is preferred.

turnoversOVER 358%MEDIUM

He has been at 3.0 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 3.3 over the last 10, with a season mark of 3.5. The elevated ball-handling role from teammate absences supports another turnover-heavy outing.

praUNDER 28.567%MEDIUM

His season PRA projects near 27.0 using 16.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 5.6 assists, and combo props are higher-variance. Given the season baseline and historical caution on combos, the UNDER is the safer call.

paUNDER 25.562%MEDIUM

His season P+A is 22.4, and even his recent form at 17.3 PPG plus 6.4 APG is 23.7. The 25.5 line is still above both season and recent production.

double_doubleUNDER 0.574%HIGH

He has some double-double potential, but his averages are 16.8 points and 4.6 rebounds, not two near-double-digit categories. That makes a double-double less likely than the market would need.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS