Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 3 | 25 | 57% | +2.7% | medium |
| Immanuel Quickley | 4 | 20 | 65% | +4.9% | medium |
| Jalen Pickett | 2 | 17 | 44% | -14.0% | low |
| Jalen Brunson | 3 | 16 | 71% |
Ryan Rollins has been steady lately, with 17.3 PPG, 6.4 APG, and 4.5 RPG over his last 10 while playing 32.2 MPG, and his season line sits close to that level at 16.8 PPG, 5.6 APG, and 4.6 RPG. The biggest boost comes from teammate absences: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr. are both out, which supports his ball-handling and shot volume. Even so, his last-20 scoring average is 16.9 and his season assist mean is 5.62, so the current market points are still a bit aggressive relative to his baseline. Portland’s opponent profile is not especially easy, and his prior history vs this opponent is muted at 7.0 PPG, 2.7 APG, and 17 MPG across 3 games.
Toumani Camara, Sidy Cissoko, and Scoot Henderson are listed as key defenders, but their minutes against Rollins are minimal in the data. The broader opponent profile shows a 117.08 defensive rating, 100 pace, 0.373 scoring suppression, and 0.639 three suppression, which is enough to keep the outlook from turning overly bullish.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Evolution | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ryan Rollins▼ | Points | 19.5 | UNDER | 82%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% | FLIP | 36 | ✗ |
Ryan Rollins▼ | Assists | 7.5 | UNDER | 76%HIGH | 2/2 | 70% | FLIP | 4 | ✓ |
Ryan Rollins▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 4 | ✓ | |
Ryan Rollins▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 30% | FLIP | 6 | ✗ |
Ryan Rollins▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 71%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% | 2 | ✗ | |
Ryan Rollins▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 79%HIGH | — | 70% | FLIP | 0 | ✓ |
Ryan Rollins▼ | STL+BLK | 2.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | — | 60% | FLIP | 2 | ✓ |
Ryan Rollins▼ | Turnovers | 3 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 5 | ✓ | |
Ryan Rollins▼ | PRA | 28.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 26→28.5 | 44 | ✗ |
Ryan Rollins▼ | P+A | 25.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 22.5→25.5 | 40 | ✗ |
Ryan Rollins▼ | Double-Double | 0.5 | UNDER | 74%HIGH | — | — | — | — | — |
This is the cleanest angle because his season scoring mean is 16.8 and his last-20 is 16.9, both well below 19.5. The value props also show a strong UNDER signal at multiple books, including a 0.311 best edge at DraftKings and our_prob_under of 0.851.
| medium |
| Dennis Schröder | 4 | 16 | 39% | -14.0% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toumani Camara | 1 | 3 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Sidy Cissoko | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Caleb Love | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Kris Murray | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Deni Avdija | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 16.84 and last-20 mean is 16.9, both below 19.5. The value data also shows a strong UNDER edge at this number, with our_prob_under at 0.851 and best_edge at 0.311.
He averages 5.62 APG for the season and 6.4 APG over the last 10, which is still short of 7.5. Even with teammate absences, his 7.5 assist value is expensive and the model data favors the UNDER.
His season rebound mean is 4.64 and his last-10 is 4.5, so this is close to the number but not enough to justify an OVER lean. The edge data for rebounds is weak and does not provide a positive value case.
He averages 2.45 threes per game on the season and 2.7 over the last 10, but the line is still set at 2.5 and the value board leans UNDER at most books. The recent uptick is not enough to ignore the season-level mean.
He averages 1.5 steals seasonally, but the line is high and the under is heavily juiced at the available book. With variance in steals, the safer side is UNDER.
His season block average is only 0.4, so 0.5 is above his baseline. That makes the UNDER the cleaner side despite occasional recent blocks.
He averages 1.91 stocks on the season and 1.9 over the last 10, which sits below a typical 2.5-style threshold. Stocks carry variance, so the UNDER is preferred.
He has been at 3.0 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 3.3 over the last 10, with a season mark of 3.5. The elevated ball-handling role from teammate absences supports another turnover-heavy outing.
His season PRA projects near 27.0 using 16.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 5.6 assists, and combo props are higher-variance. Given the season baseline and historical caution on combos, the UNDER is the safer call.
His season P+A is 22.4, and even his recent form at 17.3 PPG plus 6.4 APG is 23.7. The 25.5 line is still above both season and recent production.
He has some double-double potential, but his averages are 16.8 points and 4.6 rebounds, not two near-double-digit categories. That makes a double-double less likely than the market would need.