Holiday’s minutes are steady, but the scoring environment points to a muted night

His season mean is 15.9 PPG, but recent form is lower at 11.6 PPG over the last 5 and 13.3 over the last 10. The value data shows a 14.2% edge to the under at 15.5, with our projected under probability at 0.672.

He averages 4.6 RPG on the season and 4.2 over the last 5, which is close to the line but slightly below it. The value data also favors the under at this number, though only modestly, so confidence stays moderate.

Holiday is at 6.2 APG for the season and 6.0 over the last 10, but the recent 5-game average is 6.4 and the under edge is small. Because combo-style creation can be volatile and the model edge is limited, this is a cautious lean under.

He averages 2.37 made threes per game on the season and 2.1 over the last 5, with 2.6 FG3M over the last 20. The value props data gives the over a positive edge at 2.5, making it the clearest non-points lean.

He averages 1.1 steals per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, so the baseline is still playable. Confidence is limited because his recent stocks have cooled to 0.8 and the standard deviation is high relative to the mean.

His season stocks average is 1.23 and recent average is 0.9, both below a 1.5 threshold. With the recent trend down and a relatively high variance profile, the under is the safer side.

He has averaged 2.0 turnovers in the last 5 and 2.3 over the last 10, compared with 3.0 over the last 20. That keeps the turnover baseline elevated enough to prefer the over if a book offers a 2.0 line.