AI Model:

Bobby Portis▼

MIL · PF

PPG

13.7

RPG

6.4

APG

1.6

L5 PPG

16.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.1

13.7

16.8

RPG+1.0

6.4

7.4

APG+0.4

1.6

2.0

SPG+0.8

0.6

1.4

BPG-0.2

0.2

0.0

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

BOS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs BOS: 12 pts

ATL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs ATL: 13 pts

UTA

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs UTA: 12 pts

ORL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs ORL: 18 pts

MIA

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIA: 19 pts

ATL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ATL: 14 pts

IND

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs IND: 29 pts

CLE

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CLE: 19 pts

UTA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs UTA: 11 pts

LAC

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs LAC: 11 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

REB

UNDER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL

OVER 0.5

55%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

66%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

UNDER 1

61%

P+R

UNDER 22.5STAKE

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.9

13.2

RPG

5.5

5.9

APG

1.6

0.9

vs POR (H2H)9 games

PPG

15.7

RPG

6.7

APG

1.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Sandro Mamukelashvili	3	9	86%	+22.6%	medium
Naz Reid	2	9	83%	+17.9%	low
Moritz Wagner	3	9	60%	+11.2%	medium
Evan Mobley	3	8	56%

Portis’ role is stable, but the market is still too high on his scoring

Bobby Portis enters with a season line of 13.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 1.6 APG across 24.1 MPG, while his last-5 scoring has climbed to 16.8 PPG with 26.2 MPG. Even with that recent lift, his broader trend is down and his last-20 scoring sits at 14.7 PPG, which is much closer to his season baseline than the hot stretch. The matchup is not especially restrictive on paper, but the available defender data does not point to a specific elite stopper, and the strongest angle remains his inflated points line relative to season production. With teammate absences increasing opportunity, his floor is supported, but the most efficient projection still leans slightly below the scoring market.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.8(↑ from 13.7)

RPG

7.4(↑ from 6.4)

APG

2.0(→ from 1.6)

Threes

2.5(↑ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so no specific defender matchup data. Portland's opponent defense shows a 117.08 defensive rating and 0.373 scoring suppression, which does not create a strong reason to force overs based on matchup alone.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Bobby Portis▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	60%
Bobby Portis▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%
Bobby Portis▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	40%
Bobby Portis▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	70%
Bobby Portis▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	80%
Bobby Portis▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	80%
Bobby Portis▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%
Bobby Portis▼	Turnovers	1	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%
Bobby Portis▼	P+R	22.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%

ML Scout Analysis

P+R20.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

P+A16UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

Bobby Portis

Points UNDER 14.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data: his season mean is 13.66 points, his last-20 is 14.7, and the value props show the UNDER as the best side at several books with a strong edge. The recent scoring uptick is real, but it still looks more like a short-term surge than a new baseline, so the under remains the best bet.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jerami Grant	1	2	1	0%	0%
Kris Murray	1	2	0	0%	0%
Toumani Camara	1	2	0	0%	0%
Donovan Clingan	1	1	2	100%	100%
Sidy Cissoko	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 14.572%HIGH

His season mean is 13.66 points and last-20 is 14.7, both below this number, while the value data shows UNDER with a strong edge at multiple books. The recent 16.8 PPG is a bit hot relative to the season, so regression risk favors the under.

reboundsUNDER 6.556%MEDIUM

He averages 6.39 RPG for the season and 6.1 over the last 10, which makes 6.5 close to fair. Because the line is only slightly above his baseline and the split data is not strongly supportive of a clear over, the under is the safer lean.

assistsOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

Portis averages 1.57 APG on the season and 1.8 over the last 10, so 1.5 is a modest hurdle. The current role is also supported by teammate absences, which helps keep this playable despite the low volume.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 2.01 made threes per game on the season and 2.5 over the last 5, with 2.3 over the last 20. Since the line is only 1.5, his volume from deep is comfortably above the threshold.

stealsOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

Season steals are 0.6 and the last 10 are 1.0, so a 0.5 line is reachable. This is still a volatile prop, but his recent activity makes the over viable.

blocksUNDER 0.566%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.2 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 10. With limited shot-blocking volume, the under is the stronger side.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

Season stocks are 0.79 and recent are 1.2, which still sits below 1.5. This is a volatile combo stat, and his baseline production does not justify the over.

turnoversUNDER 161%MEDIUM

He has only 0.8 turnovers over the last 5 and 0.9 over the last 10. That keeps him below a projected 1.0 line and supports the under.

prUNDER 22.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile sits around 20.1, and the market number is above that baseline. Combo props carry extra variance, so the conservative side is under.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS