AI Model:

Sam Merrill▲

CLE · PF

PPG

13.0

RPG

2.6

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

15.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.4

13.0

15.4

RPG+2.4

2.6

5.0

APG-0.3

2.3

2.0

SPG+0.2

0.6

0.8

BPG+0.2

0.2

0.4

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

13.5

DET

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DET: 20 pts

BKN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BKN: 15 pts

DET

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DET: 9 pts

BOS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs BOS: 5 pts

PHI

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs PHI: 2 pts

ORL

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs ORL: 13 pts

MIL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIL: 17 pts

CHI

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHI: 13 pts

NOP

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs NOP: 15 pts

ORL

2026-03-24

2026-03-24 vs ORL: 19 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5BETMGM

84%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

AST

OVER 2.5BETONLINEAG

64%

3PM

UNDER 3.5BETMGM

62%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.0

13.9

RPG

3.0

APG

2.4

1.9

vs MIA (H2H)11 games

PPG

6.1

RPG

1.2

APG

1.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
AJ Green	4	20	100%	+20.8%	medium
Duncan Robinson	3	12	64%	+8.6%	medium
Trey Murphy III	2	8	50%	-5.9%	low
Jalen Brunson	3	8	44%

Merrill’s scoring trend is strong, but the number still leans under

Sam Merrill is trending up, with his last 5 games at 15.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 30.8 MPG versus a season line of 13.0 PPG, 2.6 RPG, and 26.3 MPG. That said, his game-to-game scoring is still volatile, and his season mean plus a tough opponent profile point to caution rather than chasing the hot streak. The best edge in the data is on his points under 13.5, while his assist volume has climbed enough to keep that market interesting. Overall, the projection is for solid minutes but a slightly muted scoring output compared with recent highs.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.4(↑ from 13.0)

RPG

5.0(↑ from 2.6)

APG

2.0(→ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

The provided key defender data does not give a clean one-on-one profile, so there is no specific defender matchup data. Team-level opponent data is more useful here: the opponent has a 117.34 defensive rating and strong three suppression at -0.986, which makes Merrill’s scoring environment less appealing.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Sam Merrill▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	2/2	50%	18	✗
Sam Merrill▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✓
Sam Merrill▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	4	✓
Sam Merrill▼	3PM	3.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	4	✗
Sam Merrill▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R15OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

PTS13UNDER27%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A14.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)11/2055%▼

REB3UNDER43%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

AST2OVER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

PRA17.5UNDER27%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A5.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

3PA7UNDER36%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

3PM2UNDER19%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

FTM0.5UNDER19%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

FTA1UNDER10%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

Featured Pick

Sam Merrill

Points UNDER 13.5HIGH

This is the strongest value on the board, with a 21.3% edge at BetMGM and a projected under probability of 73.7%. Merrill’s season average is 13.0 PPG, and his 11-game history vs this opponent is only 6.09 PPG, so the recent hot streak is not enough to outweigh the longer sample.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Tyler Herro	2	8	4	20%	20%
Davion Mitchell	4	6	0	0%	0%
Pelle Larsson	4	6	11	75%	88%
Norman Powell	4	4	4	50%	50%
Simone Fontecchio	3	4	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 13.584%HIGH

The value data shows a 21.3% edge on UNDER 13.5 with our_prob_under at 0.737. His season average is 13.0 PPG, but the opponent data shows just 6.09 PPG in 11 games vs this team, which supports the under despite the recent 15.4 PPG surge.

reboundsUNDER 3.567%MEDIUM

He averages only 2.61 rebounds per game for the season and 2.61 is closer to his baseline than the 3.5 recent mean. The value props also flag UNDER 3.5 as positive EV with a 5.3% edge.

assistsOVER 2.564%MEDIUM

His assists have been 2.6 over the last 10 and 2.65 in home games, which is above the 2.5 line. The value data shows a 17.5% edge on OVER 2.5 assists, making this a playable positive-EV spot.

threesUNDER 3.562%MEDIUM

He averages 3.15 threes per game on the season and 2.5 over the last 10, which sits below the 3.5 line. With the opponent data also showing three suppression at -0.986, the under gets support.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.74 and his last 10 is 1.0, both well below 1.5. Even with a few recent defensive stats, the baseline does not justify the over.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS