AI Model:

Norman Powell▲

MIA · SF

PPG

22.4

RPG

3.7

APG

2.6

L5 PPG

16.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-6.2

22.4

16.2

RPG-0.5

3.7

3.2

APG0.0

2.6

SPG-0.8

1.2

0.4

BPG+0.2

0.2

0.4

OVER 2.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

2.5

BOS

2026-02-06

2026-02-06 vs BOS: 24 pts

WAS

2026-02-08

2026-02-08 vs WAS: 21 pts

ATL

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs ATL: 15 pts

MEM

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs MEM: 25 pts

MIL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs MIL: 26 pts

PHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHI: 3 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 20 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 17 pts

LAL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAL: 20 pts

SAS

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs SAS: 21 pts

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

PTS

UNDER 21.5STAKE

61%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

58%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

56%

P+R

UNDER 24.5STAKE

59%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

22.5

17.1

RPG

2.9

4.0

APG

3.0

2.1

vs CLE (H2H)11 games

PPG

20.5

RPG

2.3

APG

1.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Anthony Black	4	16	50%	+2.7%	medium
Mikal Bridges	4	14	100%	+27.7%	medium
Landry Shamet	3	13	70%	+2.7%	medium
Jalen Suggs	5	13	56%

Powell’s 3-point volume stands out, but scoring is priced fairly

Norman Powell’s season line is strong at 22.4 PPG, but his recent scoring has cooled to 16.2 over the last 5 and 19.2 over the last 10, so the current form is below his full-season level. His three-point volume remains a strength at 2.81 made threes per game on the season and 2.4 over the last 10, and the value data shows clear plus-ev on that market. Cleveland’s defense context is not especially friendly for offense, with a 114.92 defensive rating and a -0.114 scoring suppression mark, which pushes me to be conservative on his points props.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.2(↓ from 22.4)

RPG

3.2(↓ from 3.7)

APG

2.6(→ from 2.6)

3PM

2.4(↓ from 2.8)

Key Matchup

Cleveland has a 114.92 defensive rating and a -0.114 scoring suppression mark, which points to a tougher scoring environment overall. No specific defender matchup data is available, so the read is based on team-level defense and pace.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Norman Powell▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	72%HIGH	2/2	50%	3	✓
Norman Powell▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	19	✓
Norman Powell▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	4	✗
Norman Powell▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✓
Norman Powell▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✗
Norman Powell▼	P+R	24.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	23	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA23.5OVER0%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)15/2075%+22.9% edge▼

PTS17.5OVER6%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)14/2070%+17.6% edge▼

P+R23OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A22OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

REB3.5UNDER12%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

3PA7UNDER35%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

3PM2.5UNDER15%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

FTM4UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

FTA5UNDER6%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%▼

AST2.5UNDER29%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Norman Powell

Threes OVER 2.5HIGH

This is the clearest positive-edge spot in the data, with a best edge of 12.1% and +27.0 EV per 100 at Betrivers. Powell’s season average of 2.81 made threes and his recent 2.4 per game keep him in a strong range to clear 2.5.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Keon Ellis	2	9	0	0%	0%
Sam Merrill	4	8	0	0%	0%
De'Andre Hunter	2	8	10	60%	80%
Dean Wade	2	6	0	0%	0%
Donovan Mitchell	3	5	9	57%	64%

threesOVER 2.572%HIGH

He averages 2.81 made threes per game on the season and 2.4 over the last 10, with multiple value books showing the OVER at 2.5 as the best side. The edge data is strong, with a 12.1% best edge and +27.0 EV per 100 at one book.

pointsUNDER 21.561%MEDIUM

His recent scoring is 16.2 over the last 5 and 19.2 over the last 10, both below the 21.5 line. With Cleveland’s scoring suppression at -0.114 and his season mean of 22.4 not far above the line, the UNDER is the safer lean.

reboundsUNDER 3.558%MEDIUM

He averages 3.7 rebounds for the season, but just 3.2 over the last 5 and 3.4 over the last 10, which sits right around the number. The market also leans toward the UNDER on several books, and the profile is low-variance but not strong enough to push an OVER.

assistsUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

Powell’s season assist average is 2.6, but his last 10 is 2.5 and his away mean is only 2.1, which keeps this projection modest. Value data also favors the UNDER on multiple books, and the combo of middling volume and decent variance supports the lower side.

stocksUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.38 stocks on the season and 1.4 over the last 10, which is close but still below a 1.5 line. Given the standard deviation profile and the lack of an exact book line, the UNDER is the more conservative read.

prUNDER 24.559%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds output is supported by 22.4 PPG and 3.7 RPG, but recent scoring has dipped and the 24.5 line is a little rich. Combo props carry more variance, so I’d rather lean UNDER unless the scoring role spikes.

timelineOVER 2.5 PTS