AI Model:

Max Strus▼

CLE · G

PPG

9.2

RPG

6.2

APG

2.2

L5 PPG

9.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG0.0

9.2

RPG0.0

6.2

APG0.0

2.2

SPG0.0

0.6

BPG0.0

0.0

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

9.5

NYK

2025-04-02

2025-04-02 vs NYK: 8 pts

SAS

2025-04-04

2025-04-04 vs SAS: 3 pts

SAC

2025-04-06

2025-04-06 vs SAC: 11 pts

CHI

2025-04-08

2025-04-08 vs CHI: 9 pts

NYK

2025-04-11

2025-04-11 vs NYK: 19 pts

DAL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DAL: 24 pts

MIL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIL: 6 pts

CHI

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHI: 0 pts

NOP

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs NOP: 5 pts

ORL

2026-03-24

2026-03-24 vs ORL: 11 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5

74%

REB

UNDER 6.5

62%

AST

UNDER 2.5

66%

3PM

UNDER 2.5

68%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

72%

UNDER 2

70%

PRA

UNDER 18

63%

R+A

UNDER 8.5

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.6

9.0

RPG

5.0

4.7

APG

4.0

2.5

vs MIA (H2H)4 games

PPG

9.0

RPG

3.8

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Luka Dončić	1	5	50%	-2.6%	low
Brandin Podziemski	1	4	67%	+18.6%	low
Desmond Bane	1	3	0%	-48.1%	low
Paolo Banchero	1	2	86%

Strus’ scoring outlook is shaky, but his rebound floor keeps him relevant

Max Strus is carrying a modest season line of 9.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 2.2 APG, with his last-5 exactly matching those season averages in points and rebounds but the overall trend marked down. His recent scoring has been volatile, including a 24-point outlier but also a 0-point game, and his standard deviation in points is very high at 8.18, which makes his scoring props low-confidence. The matchup data is not pointing to a clear boost, as he has averaged 9.0 PPG and 3.75 RPG in 4 games vs this opponent, and the opponent’s scoring suppression profile suggests some resistance. With no specific defender matchup data that meaningfully changes the projection, the cleanest angle is to lean on his steadier rebound production rather than betting on points.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.2(↓ from 9.2)

RPG

6.2(→ from 6.2)

APG

2.2(→ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data meaningfully changes the projection here. Against this opponent, he has averaged 9.0 points and 3.75 rebounds across 4 games, while the opponent defense data shows a 117.34 defensive rating and 0.43 scoring suppression.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Max Strus▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	60%
Max Strus▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	80%
Max Strus▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	40%
Max Strus▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Max Strus▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	80%
Max Strus▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	80%
Max Strus▼	PRA	18	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	70%
Max Strus▼	R+A	8.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	40%

ML Scout Analysis

P+R18.5UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)3/933%▼

REB6UNDER4%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)4/944%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

P+A15UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)3/933%▼

PTS11UNDER4%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)3/933%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

AST2UNDER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)3/933%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PM3UNDER16%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)3/933%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

PRA16OVER5%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)4/944%▼

R+A8OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)5/956%▼

3PA7UNDER12%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x4/944%▼

Featured Pick

Max Strus

Points UNDER 9.5HIGH

This is the clearest edge because his season scoring average is 9.2, his last-5 is also 9.2, and his scoring profile is highly volatile with an 8.18 standard deviation. The matchup history is not pushing him above the line either, as he has averaged 9.0 PPG in 4 games vs this opponent.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	1	2	8	100%	133%
Tyler Herro	1	1	3	100%	150%
Pelle Larsson	1	1	2	0%	0%
Norman Powell	1	1	5	50%	63%
Kasparas Jakučionis	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 9.574%HIGH

His season mean is 9.2, but the scoring profile is extremely volatile with a season std of 8.18 and a recent trend down. He has also averaged just 9.0 PPG in 4 games vs this opponent, so the under is the safer side.

reboundsUNDER 6.562%MEDIUM

He is sitting at 6.2 RPG on the season and 6.2 in the last 5, so a 6.5 line is slightly above his mean. That said, his rebound distribution is steadier than points, so confidence stays moderate.

assistsUNDER 2.566%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.2 APG and his last-5 is also 2.2, which keeps him below a 2.5 line. He has reached 3.0 APG in the last 10, but the baseline still leans under.

threesUNDER 2.568%MEDIUM

He averages 2.4 made threes per game on the season, but the last-20 is 2.2 and the recent output is not a clear step up. With a high std of 2.06, the under is the more conservative choice.

stocksUNDER 1.572%HIGH

His season stocks average is only 0.6, and his last-5 is 0.6 as well. At a 1.5 line, he would need a major outlier game to clear it.

turnoversUNDER 270%HIGH

He is at 0.8 turnovers per game in the last 5 and 1.4 in the last 10, both below this line. That makes the under the cleaner side unless his usage spikes unexpectedly.

praUNDER 1863%MEDIUM

His season averages sum to 17.6 PRA, so an 18.0 line is slightly above baseline. Because combo props are higher-variance, the under is preferable here.

raUNDER 8.564%MEDIUM

He averages 6.2 rebounds and 2.2 assists for 8.4 RA on the season, just under this line. The slight cushion supports an under play.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS