AI Model:

Keon Ellis▼

CLE · SF

PPG

6.2

RPG

1.8

APG

0.9

L5 PPG

6.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.2

6.2

6.0

RPG+1.2

1.8

3.0

APG+0.7

0.9

1.6

SPG-0.2

1.2

1.0

BPG-0.1

0.7

0.6

UNDER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

8.5

DET

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DET: 7 pts

BOS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs BOS: 0 pts

PHI

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs PHI: 19 pts

ORL

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs ORL: 20 pts

DAL

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DAL: 13 pts

DAL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DAL: 5 pts

MIL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIL: 8 pts

CHI

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHI: 8 pts

NOP

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs NOP: 7 pts

ORL

2026-03-24

2026-03-24 vs ORL: 2 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 8.5BETMGM

69%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

82%

AST

UNDER 1

63%

3PM

UNDER 1.5

58%

STL

OVER 1

56%

BLK

OVER 0.5

57%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

61%

UNDER 1

66%

P+R

UNDER 10

67%

P+A

UNDER 7.5

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

6.2

8.4

RPG

3.0

2.9

APG

1.1

1.8

vs MIA (H2H)3 games

PPG

9.0

RPG

4.0

APG

1.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Norman Powell	3	9	64%	+12.7%	medium
Luka Dončić	3	6	79%	+27.0%	medium
Tim Hardaway Jr.	4	6	44%	-11.1%	medium
Collin Gillespie	3	6	25%

Ellis’ scoring and boards point to a conservative under lean

Keon Ellis is producing 6.2 PPG, 1.8 RPG, and 0.9 APG on the season, with recent minutes up to 25.9 but his last 5 scoring at just 6.0 PPG. His last 10 shows a better 8.9 PPG, but the trend is down and the recent sample is volatile, especially with a 0-point outing in his most recent game. The matchup data is not especially favorable for offense, and his season baseline still supports a modest projection rather than a breakout night.

Stat Trends

PPG

6.0(↓ from 6.2)

RPG

3.0(↑ from 1.8)

APG

1.6(↑ from 0.9)

Stocks

1.6(↓ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

Opponent defense data shows a 117.34 defensive rating, pace of 100, scoring_suppression of 0.43, and three_suppression of -0.986. There is no specific defender matchup data, so the read is based on team-level suppression rather than a named individual.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Actual	Result
Keon Ellis▼	Points	8.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	70%	17	✗
Keon Ellis▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	70%	2	✓
Keon Ellis▼	Assists	1	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	70%	1	✗
Keon Ellis▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	60%	1	✓
Keon Ellis▼	Steals	1	OVER	56%MEDIUM	20%	2	✓
Keon Ellis▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	70%	0	✗
Keon Ellis▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	60%	2	✓
Keon Ellis▼	Turnovers	1	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	80%	0	✓
Keon Ellis▼	P+R	10	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	50%	19	✗
Keon Ellis▼	P+A	7.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	20%	18	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R12.5UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

P+A11.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

R+A4.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Keon Ellis

Rebounds UNDER 3.5HIGH

This is the clearest edge on the board: his season average is 1.81 RPG, the line is 3.5, and the value model gives the under a 0.788 probability with 26.24 EV per 100 at DraftKings. Even with recent minutes up, his rebound production has not matched the line consistently.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Norman Powell	3	9	14	57%	64%
Tyler Herro	2	6	4	40%	40%
Davion Mitchell	2	4	4	67%	67%
Pelle Larsson	2	2	2	0%	0%
Bam Adebayo	3	2	4	33%	33%

pointsUNDER 8.569%MEDIUM

His season mean is 6.19 PPG, well below 8.5, and the last 5 at 6.0 does not justify a big uptick. The recent 25.9 MPG stretch helps, but the down trend and the 0-point game in his last outing keep the under in play.

reboundsUNDER 3.582%HIGH

He averages just 1.81 RPG on the season and only 3.1 over the last 5, which still sits below the 3.5 line. The value data also strongly favors under with a 0.788 projected under probability and 26.24 EV per 100.

assistsUNDER 163%MEDIUM

Season assists are only 0.9 APG, and even the recent 1.2 is still a low-volume passing profile. His role is not built around creation, so the under remains the safer side.

threesUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.25 made threes per game on the season and 1.5 over the last 5, so this is close to fair value rather than a clear over. With the opponent three suppression at -0.986, the under gets a slight edge.

stealsOVER 156%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 steals per game on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, so he consistently clears this level. Variance is real, but the baseline is strong enough to prefer the over.

blocksOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.7 blocks per game and 0.8 over the last 10, both above the line. That gives him a solid chance to record at least one block.

stocksOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.86 stocks on the season, 1.9 over the last 10, and 2.5 over the last 20. That keeps him above the threshold despite some recent volatility.

turnoversUNDER 166%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.8 turnovers over the last 10 and 0.4 in home splits, so the turnover burden is light. With limited ballhandling, the under is the cleaner side.

prUNDER 1067%MEDIUM

Using season means, 6.2 points plus 1.8 rebounds lands well below 10.0. This combo also carries added variance, so the safer lean is under.

paUNDER 7.564%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists average is only 7.1, which is below the line. Recent minutes help, but the scoring and passing profile still point under.

timelineUNDER 8.5 PTS