AI Model:

Kel'el Ware▼

MIA · C

PPG

11.1

RPG

9.2

APG

0.6

L5 PPG

8.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.9

11.1

8.2

RPG-2.2

9.2

7.0

APG+0.2

0.6

0.8

SPG-0.6

0.8

0.2

BPG-0.1

1.1

1.0

OVER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

7.5

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 11 pts

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 16 pts

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 10 pts

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 12 pts

MIL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIL: 6 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 13 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 7 pts

LAL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAL: 14 pts

HOU

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs HOU: 0 pts

SAS

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs SAS: 7 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 7.5STAKE

66%

REB

OVER 7.5STAKE

69%

AST

OVER 0.5

58%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

57%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

62%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

61%

UNDER 2

72%

P+R

UNDER 15.5STAKE

63%

R+A

OVER 8.5STAKE

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.9

9.7

RPG

10.3

7.8

APG

0.6

0.3

vs CLE (H2H)3 games

PPG

11.3

RPG

12.3

APG

1.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Moussa Diabaté	4	18	64%	+10.7%	medium
Ryan Kalkbrenner	4	17	80%	+27.1%	medium
Mitchell Robinson	3	16	50%	-2.9%	medium
Rudy Gobert	2	15	78%

Ware’s rebound floor keeps him in play, but scoring is the shakier side

Kel'el Ware’s season line of 11.1 PPG and 9.2 RPG supports a strong rebounding profile, while his recent scoring has cooled to 8.2 PPG over the last 5. His last 10 shows more stability at 9.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 3.3 stocks, but his current trend is still marked down and his last 5 minutes dipped to 20.6 MPG. The matchup data points to a tougher scoring environment with Cleveland’s opponent defense showing a 114.92 def rating and -0.114 scoring suppression, so the safer angle is leaning away from his point ceiling and toward the lower-variance rebound side. He also enters on the road, where his season averages are 9.7 PPG and 7.8 RPG, both below his home splits.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.2(↓ from 11.1)

RPG

7.0(↓ from 9.2)

APG

0.8(→ from 0.6)

Key Matchup

Evan Mobley is listed with 8.7 defensive minutes, but the data provides no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. Cleveland’s opponent defense also shows a 114.92 def rating and -0.114 scoring suppression, which leans against easy scoring.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Kel'el Ware▼	Points	7.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	13	✓
Kel'el Ware▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	11	✓
Kel'el Ware▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%	4	✓
Kel'el Ware▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Kel'el Ware▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✓
Kel'el Ware▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✗
Kel'el Ware▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Kel'el Ware▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	24	✗
Kel'el Ware▼	R+A	8.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	15	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS11UNDER25%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)9/1947%▼

PRA22UNDER30%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)9/1947%▼

P+R20OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/1953%▼

P+A12UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)8/1942%▼

REB8UNDER26%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)9/1947%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST1UNDER22%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)4/1921%▼

3PA3UNDER37%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)6/1932%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

R+A10UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)8/1942%▼

BLK1UNDER5%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (8/20)6/1932%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PM1UNDER28%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x4/1921%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA1UNDER0%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/1947%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

Featured Pick

Kel'el Ware

Rebounds OVER 7.5HIGH

This is the most stable angle in the profile: Ware averages 9.2 rebounds on the season, 8.2 over the last 10, and 7.8 on the road. The line sits below every major split and his recent usage in the paint still supports a strong rebounding floor.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jarrett Allen	2	12	14	44%	44%
Evan Mobley	3	12	21	62%	69%
Thomas Bryant	3	5	9	40%	45%
Nae'Qwan Tomlin	3	2	4	100%	100%
Donovan Mitchell	3	1	9	57%	64%

pointsOVER 7.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.1 points and his recent mean is 9.6, both above 7.5. The last 5 at 8.2 is below season pace, but the line is still modest relative to his normal scoring range.

reboundsOVER 7.569%MEDIUM

Ware averages 9.2 rebounds on the season and 8.2 over the last 10, with 9.67 at home and 8.71 away. The line is below all of those reference points, making the over the cleaner side.

assistsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 assists on the season and 0.7 in the last 10, so 0.5 is reachable. Still, the role is low-usage on the passing side, so confidence stays modest.

stealsOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.8 steals and the last 10 is 1.4, both above this line. The recent 5-game dip to 0.2 adds volatility, so this is only a medium-confidence look.

blocksOVER 0.562%MEDIUM

Ware averages 1.1 blocks for the season and 1.9 over the last 10, which is well above 0.5. Even with some recent variance, the block line is still low for his profile.

stocksOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.93 and the last 20 is 2.0, so 1.5 is a workable threshold. The last 10 at 3.3 shows upside, but the recent std is high, so confidence is capped.

turnoversUNDER 272%HIGH

He averages only 0.8 turnovers over the last 5 and 0.8 over the last 20, with no season turnover risk signal suggesting a high volume profile. This is comfortably below a 2.0 line.

prUNDER 15.563%MEDIUM

His season baseline for points plus rebounds is about 20.3, but the recent 5-game form is only 15.2 combined. Given the downtrend and road context, the under has the better margin at this number.

raOVER 8.567%MEDIUM

Ware’s rebound production alone is strong enough to challenge this line, and his 0.6 season assists do not hurt the case. His season rebound mark of 9.2 and home rebound mean of 10.3 support the over.

timelineOVER 7.5 PTS