AI Model:

Evan Mobley▼

CLE · C

PPG

18.3

RPG

8.9

APG

3.6

L5 PPG

21.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.3

18.3

21.6

RPG+2.5

8.9

11.4

APG0.0

3.6

SPG-0.4

0.8

0.4

BPG+0.1

1.9

2.0

UNDER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

18.5

DET

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DET: 18 pts

BOS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs BOS: 24 pts

PHI

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs PHI: 15 pts

ORL

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs ORL: 18 pts

DAL

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DAL: 29 pts

DAL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DAL: 18 pts

MIL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIL: 27 pts

CHI

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHI: 26 pts

NOP

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs NOP: 18 pts

ORL

2026-03-24

2026-03-24 vs ORL: 19 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 18.5STAKE

78%

REB

OVER 8.5STAKE

62%

AST

UNDER 4.5STAKE

74%

3PM

UNDER 1

69%

BLK

UNDER 2.5STAKE

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

61%

OVER 1.5

58%

P+R

UNDER 26.5STAKE

66%

P+A

UNDER 22.5STAKE

70%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.1

20.0

RPG

8.6

10.5

APG

3.3

2.1

vs MIA (H2H)13 games

PPG

15.2

RPG

8.5

APG

3.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Scottie Barnes	3	16	44%	-11.1%	medium
Paolo Banchero	4	14	59%	-2.9%	medium
Adem Bona	4	14	40%	-14.8%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	3	12	68%

Mobley’s rebound-and-block profile leans steady, but scoring is priced a bit high

Evan Mobley is averaging 18.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG, and 3.6 APG on 32.5 MPG this season, with his last 5 rising to 21.6 PPG and 11.4 RPG. The recent surge is real, but his season baseline is still lower than the last-5, so regression risk matters on inflated lines. Against Miami, his 13-game history shows 15.153846153846153 PPG and 8.461538461538462 RPG, which is a useful reminder that this matchup has not consistently produced big scoring outbursts. Cleveland is on a back-to-back, which can add some volatility, but his strongest looks remain rebounds and stocks rather than points overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.6(↑ from 18.3)

RPG

11.4(↑ from 8.9)

APG

3.6(→ from 3.6)

Key Matchup

The only specific defender matchup data available is Bam Adebayo, who has 30.0 minutes and 39 points allowed in the dataset. Miami’s defense is listed with a 117.34 defensive rating and 0.43 scoring suppression, so this is not a soft environment for easy offense, and there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the provided names.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Evan Mobley▼	Points	18.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	50%		8	✓
Evan Mobley▼	Rebounds	8.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		5	✗
Evan Mobley▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	90%		4	✓
Evan Mobley▼	3PM	1	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	70%		0	✓
Evan Mobley▼	Blocks	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		0	✓
Evan Mobley▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	50%	FLIP	0	✓
Evan Mobley▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%	—	2	✓
Evan Mobley▼	P+R	26.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	30%		13	✓
Evan Mobley▼	P+A	22.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	50%	—	12	✓

ML Scout Analysis

REB8.5OVER10%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

P+R28.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%▼

R+A12OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

P+A22UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

PTS18UNDER30%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST3UNDER1%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x8/2040%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PA2UNDER55%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 10x6/2030%▼

PRA33UNDER25%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

BLK0.5UNDER26%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA5UNDER27%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM2UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Evan Mobley

Points UNDER 18.5HIGH

His season scoring mean is 18.3, and the current market is asking for 18.5 with multiple books also pricing 19.5. The best value data shows the UNDER as the top side at 18.5 and 19.5, with the 18.5 Under returning 48.34 EV per 100 at FanDuel and the matchup history sitting at just 15.153846153846153 PPG across 13 games.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Bam Adebayo	2	10	13	31%	34%
Kel'el Ware	3	8	10	71%	71%
Andrew Wiggins	3	6	10	57%	71%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	3	3	2	50%	50%
Davion Mitchell	3	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 18.578%HIGH

His season scoring average is 18.3, while multiple books are hanging 18.5 and 19.5. With vs-opponent scoring at 15.153846153846153 PPG across 13 games and the last-5 spike above season pace, this is a good spot to fade the over.

reboundsOVER 8.562%MEDIUM

Mobley is at 8.9 RPG for the season and 9.8 RPG over the last 10, with 11.4 RPG in the last 5. The line is right around his season mean, but his recent rebounding form gives the over a slight lean.

assistsUNDER 4.574%HIGH

He averages 3.6 APG on the season and 3.0 APG over the last 10, so 4.5 is above his typical distribution. The season std is 1.81, so there is some volatility, but the under still matches the baseline better.

threesUNDER 169%MEDIUM

He averages 1.05 threes per game on the season, but only 0.6 in the last 10 and 0.6 at home. With recent volume down, the under is the safer side at a projected 1.0 line.

blocksUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.9 blocks on the season and 1.8 over the last 10, which is solid but still below 2.5. The line requires a ceiling game, and his recent block rate does not make that the most likely outcome.

stocksUNDER 2.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.65, but recent form is 2.3 over the last 10 and 2.2 over the last 20. Because this is a combo stat with variance, the under is the more conservative call.

turnoversOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He is at 1.4 turnovers over the last 10 and 1.4 over the last 20, but recent games include 3, 2, and 4 turnovers. With his usage and minutes, 1.5 is a modest over lean.

prUNDER 26.566%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds average is 27.19, but the recent split is being boosted by a 21.6 PPG / 11.4 RPG stretch. Since combo props are higher variance, the under is preferable at this range.

paUNDER 22.570%HIGH

He averages 21.9 P+A on the season and 24.6 over the last 5, but his last-10 is 24.2 and the line is above his season mean. The over needs sustained scoring to hold, so the under is the safer angle.

timelineUNDER 18.5 PTS