AI Model:

Davion Mitchell—

MIA · PG

PPG

9.0

RPG

2.6

APG

6.6

L5 PPG

10.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.2

9.0

10.2

RPG-0.4

2.6

2.2

APG-1.2

6.6

5.4

SPG0.0

1.0

BPG0.0

0.2

OVER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

8.5

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 2 pts

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 13 pts

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 8 pts

WAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs WAS: 12 pts

MIL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIL: 13 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 14 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 4 pts

LAL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAL: 16 pts

HOU

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs HOU: 15 pts

SAS

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs SAS: 2 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 8.5STAKE

56%

REB

UNDER 2.5STAKE

66%

AST

UNDER 6.5STAKE

58%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

71%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

64%

UNDER 2

62%

P+A

OVER 14.5STAKE

57%

P+R

OVER 10.5STAKE

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.2

8.6

RPG

2.9

2.7

APG

5.0

5.8

vs CLE (H2H)11 games

PPG

7.9

RPG

1.4

APG

4.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	4	21	75%	+11.7%	medium
Desmond Bane	4	20	55%	+1.7%	medium
Cade Cunningham	3	17	33%	-20.5%	medium
Tyrese Maxey	3	16	47%

Mitchell’s assist volume is the strongest angle, while points and rebounds look capped

Davion Mitchell is producing a stable all-around line with season averages of 9.0 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 6.6 assists in 28.3 MPG, and his last-10 assist rate has stayed solid at 5.2 despite a recent 5.4 mark over the last five. The scoring profile is modest against this opponent, as his 11-game history vs this team is just 7.9 PPG and 4.1 APG in 24.8 MPG. With Cleveland carrying a 114.92 defensive rating and a back-to-back on the home side, the safer angles lean toward volume-based unders on scoring and rebounds, while assists remain the clearest over candidate.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.2(↑ from 9.0)

APG

5.4(↓ from 6.6)

RPG

2.2(↓ from 2.6)

Key Matchup

His 11-game history vs this opponent is muted at 7.909090909090909 points, 1.3636363636363635 rebounds, and 4.090909090909091 assists in 24.818181818181817 MPG. The provided defender list includes no specific defender matchup data beyond names and minutes, so there is no clear one-on-one defensive edge to project from.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Davion Mitchell▼	Points	8.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		11	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	FLIP	2	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	Assists	6.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	FLIP	3	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	FLIP	2	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	—	70%		1	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	60%		2	✗
Davion Mitchell▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	90%		2	✗
Davion Mitchell▼	P+A	14.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		14	✗
Davion Mitchell▼	P+R	10.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS8.5OVER2%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x12/2060%+10.0% edge▼

REB2.5UNDER3%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

AST5.5UNDER29%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x7/2035%+16.0% edge▼

PRA17.5UNDER6%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x12/2060%▼

P+R13OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER28%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

3PA4UNDER37%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x6/2030%▼

P+A15OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Davion Mitchell

Threes OVER 1.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest positive-value angle in the data: season threes are 1.25, last-10 is 1.3, and the DraftKings value prop shows a 12.5% edge with 35.06 EV per 100 on the over. The line is accessible, and his three-point production has been steady enough to support the play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Donovan Mitchell	3	9	16	70%	80%
James Harden	2	9	11	60%	80%
Sam Merrill	4	5	9	33%	50%
Lonzo Ball	2	5	9	75%	113%
Craig Porter Jr.	1	4	2	50%	50%

pointsOVER 8.556%MEDIUM

His season mean is 9.03 points and the last-10 is 9.9, so 8.5 is a reachable number. That said, the last-5 scoring has been volatile, so this is only a modest lean.

reboundsUNDER 2.566%MEDIUM

He averages 2.64 rebounds on the season and 2.9 over the last 10, which sits close to the line but not clearly above it. Given the low-volume profile and the market pricing the under, this is the cleaner side.

assistsUNDER 6.558%MEDIUM

Season assists are 6.6, but the last-10 is down to 5.2 and his head-to-head average vs this opponent is only 4.090909090909091. That pulls the projection below 6.5 despite his normal playmaking role.

threesOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.25 threes on the season and 1.3 over the last 10, with recent volume at 1.3-1.4 attempts per game window support. The value data also shows a 12.5% edge on the over at this line.

stealsUNDER 1.571%HIGH

His season steals rate is 1.0, which is below the 1.5 line, and the last-20 sits at just 0.7. Even with a few recent multi-steal games, the baseline points to under.

stocksUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

He averages 1.21 stocks on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, both below a 1.5 threshold. The combo is also relatively volatile, so the safer read is under.

turnoversUNDER 262%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rate is 1.0-1.2 per game, which stays under a 2.0 projection. The away split is higher at 1.7, but still not enough to make over the preferred side.

paOVER 14.557%MEDIUM

Combining season points (9.03) and assists (6.59) gives a strong baseline above 14.5, and his recent play is still near that range. This is a combo prop, so confidence stays moderate.

prOVER 10.555%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds total 11.67, and the last-10 combination remains above the line as well. The line is reasonable, but the combo variance keeps the rating restrained.

timelineOVER 8.5 PTS