AI Model:

Bam Adebayo▲

MIA · C

PPG

20.1

RPG

9.8

APG

2.9

L5 PPG

23.8

Last 10 GamesREB

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.7

20.1

23.8

RPG0.0

9.8

APG-0.3

2.9

2.6

SPG+0.7

1.1

1.8

BPG-0.3

0.7

0.4

UNDER 10.5 REB

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 9 reb

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 7 reb

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 12 reb

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 9 reb

WAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs WAS: 9 reb

MIL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIL: 8 reb

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 7 reb

LAL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAL: 10 reb

HOU

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs HOU: 21 reb

SAS

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs SAS: 3 reb

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

REB

UNDER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

AST

OVER 2.5BETMGM

66%

PTS

UNDER 20.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

OVER 1.5

55%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

26.2

23.1

RPG

8.7

11.6

APG

3.0

3.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Wendell Carter Jr.	5	35	71%	+19.5%	medium
Neemias Queta	4	17	67%	+23.0%	medium
Karl-Anthony Towns	2	16	42%	-10.4%	low
Paolo Banchero	5	16	50%

Bam’s two-way volume is up, but the clearest edge is on the glass and playmaking

Bam Adebayo’s form has been strong overall, with his last 5 at 23.8 PPG, 9.8 RPG, and 2.6 APG while playing 37.0 MPG, but his season baseline remains much lower at 20.1 PPG and 9.8 RPG. The last 10 shows a major scoring spike to 29.4 PPG, yet that sits well above his season mean, so regression risk is real on points despite the hot stretch. His away splits are better for rebounds at 11.6 RPG and he has consistently produced across categories, making rebound and assist props the more stable angle. With Cleveland on a back-to-back, the matchup environment may help his overall workload, but the best lean still comes from the numbers rather than a chase on the scoring surge.

Stat Trends

PPG

23.8(↑ from 20.1)

RPG

9.8(→ from 9.8)

APG

2.6(→ from 2.9)

Stocks

2.2(↑ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

Cleveland is on a back-to-back, which can help overall production environment, but there is no specific defender matchup data provided. The cleaner read comes from Bam’s own role and the fact that his away rebounds and recent minutes remain strong.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Bam Adebayo▼	Rebounds	10.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	80%		10	✓
Bam Adebayo▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	FLIP	7	✓
Bam Adebayo▼	Points	20.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	20.5→21.5	17	✓
Bam Adebayo▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		1	✗
Bam Adebayo▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%		2	✓

ML Scout Analysis

REB11.5UNDER34%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%+12.4% edge▼

P+R35UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

PTS21.5UNDER8%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER25%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x11/2055%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A28UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%▼

AST3.5UNDER28%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

PRA36.5UNDER22%gbt_praAvoid (7/20)8/2040%+5.1% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A14UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

STL1.5UNDER39%gbt_stealsAvoid (6/20)6/2030%+5.5% edge▼

Featured Pick

Bam Adebayo

Assists OVER 2.5HIGH

This is the best value on the board from the provided data, with an 11.0% edge at BetMGM and a projected hit rate of 68.4%. His season 2.9 APG, last 10 at 3.2 APG, and minutes climbing to 36.0 support the OVER more cleanly than his points or rebounds markets.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Evan Mobley	2	8	10	50%	50%
Jarrett Allen	1	5	6	60%	60%
Thomas Bryant	2	3	2	25%	25%
James Harden	2	2	2	33%	33%
Keon Ellis	2	2	2	50%	50%

reboundsUNDER 10.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 9.8 RPG and his last 20 is also 9.8, so 10.5 is a shade high despite a recent 9.8 RPG stretch. The value data also shows UNDER 10.5 rebounds with a 7.8% edge at DraftKings.

assistsOVER 2.566%MEDIUM

He averages 2.9 APG on the season and 3.2 over the last 10, with recent minutes up to 36.0. The value data shows OVER 2.5 assists with an 11.0% edge at BetMGM.

pointsUNDER 20.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 20.1 PPG, but the last 5 at 23.8 and last 10 at 29.4 are well above baseline, which increases regression risk. The points prop is less attractive than the assist/rebound markets, especially with a high recent scoring run.

threesOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.76 made threes per game on the season and 2.1 over the last 10, with 1.9 to 2.0 in recent/home contexts. That supports a modest OVER lean, though the variance is high.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.81 and last 5 is 2.2, so clearing 1.5 is well within range. The category is volatile, but the baseline volume supports an OVER lean.

timelineUNDER 10.5 REB