AI Model:

Obi Toppin—

IND · PF

PPG

9.0

RPG

4.1

APG

2.1

L5 PPG

10.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.8

9.0

10.8

RPG-0.7

4.1

3.4

APG+0.9

2.1

3.0

SPG-0.4

0.4

0.0

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

MEM

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MEM: 4 pts

LAC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs LAC: 0 pts

LAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAL: 2 pts

POR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs POR: 4 pts

SAC

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAC: 17 pts

NYK

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NYK: 9 pts

MIL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIL: 11 pts

NYK

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs NYK: 15 pts

SAS

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs SAS: 11 pts

ORL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs ORL: 8 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5BETMGM

62%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

OVER 2

55%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.5

9.9

RPG

4.4

4.1

APG

2.8

1.7

vs LAL (H2H)11 games

PPG

7.3

RPG

3.3

APG

0.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Isaiah Hartenstein	1	5	0%	-49.3%	low
OG Anunoby	2	4	133%	+50.7%	low
Santi Aldama	1	4	50%	+0.7%	low
Josh Hart	1	3	117%

Toppin’s scoring looks capped, but the rebound market is playable

Obi Toppin is averaging 9.0 PPG, 4.1 RPG, and 2.1 APG on 16.8 MPG this season, with his last-5 scoring up to 10.8 PPG but his last-10 still at just 8.1 PPG. His recent minutes have been modest at 14.4 MPG in the last-10, and his season profile shows a low-variance role rather than a true usage spike. Against the Lakers, his prior head-to-head sample is weaker at 7.27 PPG, 3.27 RPG, and 0.73 APG across 11 games, so the scoring ceiling is not especially attractive.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.8(↑ from 9.0)

RPG

3.4(↓ from 4.1)

APG

3.0(↑ from 2.1)

Key Matchup

The provided matchup data shows no specific defender matchup data beyond the Lakers' listed key defenders and team-level numbers. The opponent profile includes a 114.96 defensive rating and -0.105 scoring suppression, which does not create a strong offensive boost for Toppin.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Obi Toppin▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	15	✗
Obi Toppin▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✗
Obi Toppin▼	Assists	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	2	✗
Obi Toppin▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	1/2	50%	1	✓
Obi Toppin▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	90%	3	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R15.5UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)7/1937%▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)7/1937%▼

P+A13.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)10/1953%▼

Featured Pick

Obi Toppin

Threes UNDER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the dataset: the under has a 6.8% edge on DraftKings and the best-side under EV is positive. Toppin’s season mean is 1.14 threes, his last-5 is 1.3, and his home three rate is only 0.9, all of which support fading 2+ made threes.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jarred Vanderbilt	2	3	0	0%	0%
LeBron James	1	3	2	100%	100%
Jake LaRavia	2	2	0	0%	0%
Rui Hachimura	1	1	3	100%	100%
Drew Timme	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 9.562%MEDIUM

Season scoring sits at 9.0 PPG, and his last-10 is only 8.1 PPG despite a slightly hotter last-5. With 14.4 MPG in the last-10 and a head-to-head average of 7.27 PPG vs this opponent, the under is the safer side.

reboundsOVER 3.558%MEDIUM

He averages 4.1 RPG on the season and 4.2 RPG away, with a recent rebound baseline still close enough to the number at 3.5 in the last-10. The line is modest, and his season mean supports clearing 3.5 more often than not.

assistsOVER 255%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.1 APG and his last-5 is 3.0 APG, which gives him a workable path over a 2.0 projected line. The downside is variance, as his season standard deviation is 1.53, so confidence stays moderate.

threesUNDER 1.571%HIGH

He averages 1.14 threes on the season and only 1.3 in the last-5, which is below a 1.5 line. The value data also favors the under at this exact line, with a 6.8% edge on DraftKings and projected under probability of 64.6%.

stocksUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is only 0.5, and his last-5 is 0.2, far below a 1.5 threshold. Even with some home upside, the current production profile does not support the over.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS