AI Model:

LeBron James▼

LAL · PF

PPG

20.9

RPG

5.9

APG

6.9

L5 PPG

18.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.7

20.9

18.2

RPG+2.1

5.9

8.0

APG-0.7

6.9

6.2

SPG+0.1

1.1

1.2

BPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

UNDER 23.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

23.5

SAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAC: 24 pts

NOP

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NOP: 21 pts

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 16 pts

CHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs CHI: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 17 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 18 pts

HOU

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs HOU: 30 pts

MIA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIA: 19 pts

ORL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs ORL: 12 pts

DET

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs DET: 12 pts

Over 23.5

Under 23.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 23.5STAKE

68%

REB

OVER 6.5STAKE

56%

AST

UNDER 6.5STAKE

57%

3PM

UNDER 1.5STAKE

66%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

60%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

55%

P+R

UNDER 30.5STAKE

58%

P+A

UNDER 30.5STAKE

55%

R+A

OVER 12.5STAKE

52%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.1

18.8

RPG

5.5

6.8

APG

7.8

6.7

vs IND (H2H)9 games

PPG

23.7

RPG

7.7

APG

7.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
John Collins	4	14	100%	+28.7%	medium
Amen Thompson	3	12	89%	+37.6%	medium
Royce O'Neale	4	11	75%	-1.3%	medium
P.J. Washington	3	10	43%

LeBron’s workload is steady, but scoring upside is modest against Indiana

LeBron James is averaging 20.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, and 6.9 APG on the season, but his recent scoring has dipped to 18.2 PPG over the last 5 and 18.7 over the last 10. His minutes remain strong at 33.4 MPG season-long and 35.6 MPG in the last 5, so the role is still intact, but the recent trend points more toward balanced production than a big scoring spike. Indiana has a 120.51 defensive rating and a 100 pace, while LeBron has historically produced 23.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG, and 7.1 APG in 9 games vs this opponent, making his broader stat line more appealing than pure points. The current props also show his points line sitting above his season mean, which makes the under lean more attractive unless the game environment boosts usage.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.2(↓ from 20.9)

RPG

8.0(↑ from 5.9)

APG

6.2(↓ from 6.9)

Key Matchup

Indiana has a 120.51 defensive rating and a 100 pace, and LeBron has averaged 23.666666666666668 PPG, 7.666666666666667 RPG, and 7.111111111111111 APG in 9 games vs this opponent. The key defender list is present, but no specific defender matchup data is provided beyond the names and limited tracking, so the main takeaway is the broader team defense rather than a single matchup.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
LeBron James▼	Points	23.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%		23	✓
LeBron James▼	Rebounds	6.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	FLIP	9	✓
LeBron James▼	Assists	6.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		9	✗
LeBron James▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	80%		0	✓
LeBron James▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	FLIP	1	✓
LeBron James▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	60%		0	✗
LeBron James▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	80%		1	✗
LeBron James▼	P+R	30.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	80%		32	✗
LeBron James▼	P+A	30.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	FLIP	32	✗
LeBron James▼	R+A	12.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	—	18	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS23.5UNDER43%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)3/2015%+34.5% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

REB6.5UNDER2%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%+10.7% edge▼

3PM1.5UNDER5%gbt_three_pmDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 9x4/2020%+22.6% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+R25.5UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

PRA40.5UNDER45%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)4/2020%+22.6% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

AST9.5UNDER17%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)4/2020%+20.2% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+A26UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

STL1.5UNDER45%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 7x7/2035%▼

R+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

LeBron James

Points UNDER 23.5MEDIUM

His season scoring average is 20.9 PPG, and his last 5 are down to 18.2 PPG, which makes 23.5 a sizable ask. Even though he has strong history vs Indiana, the current form and the market line above his season mean point toward a cautious under lean.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jarace Walker	1	3	0	0%	0%
Pascal Siakam	1	2	0	0%	0%
Obi Toppin	1	2	2	33%	33%
Andrew Nembhard	1	1	0	0%	0%
Aaron Nesmith	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 23.568%MEDIUM

His season scoring average is 20.9 PPG and his last 5 have dipped to 18.2 PPG, so 23.5 is above his typical output. The recent trend is down, and the over would need a clear efficiency spike to clear this number.

reboundsOVER 6.556%MEDIUM

He is at 5.9 RPG on the season but 8.0 RPG over the last 5 and 6.6 over the last 10, with a 7.66 RPG average in 9 games vs Indiana. That makes 6.5 a reachable number, though the variance is still meaningful.

assistsUNDER 6.557%MEDIUM

LeBron's season mark is 6.9 APG, but his last 5 are down to 6.2 APG and his recent assist output has been more mixed. With the line at 6.5, this is close to fair but slightly favors the under given the downward recent trend.

threesUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

He averages 1.34 made threes per game on the season and only 0.9 over the last 5, which is below this line. Recent form and his 31.8% season three-point percentage support the under.

stealsOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 steals per game on the season and 1.2 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low threshold. Even with some variance, this is a strong volume-based over.

blocksOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He is at 0.6 blocks per game on the season and 0.4 over the last 5, so the line is right around his average range. This is playable, but the recent dip keeps confidence moderate.

stocksOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.74 stocks on the season and 1.6 over the last 5, which clears 1.5 on both samples. The combo is still somewhat volatile, so this stays a moderate-confidence over.

prUNDER 30.558%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile sits at 26.82 using 20.9 PPG and 5.9 RPG, and the recent scoring dip limits upside. Rebounds help, but 30.5 is still a touch high relative to his baseline.

paUNDER 30.555%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists are 27.8 using 20.9 PPG and 6.9 APG, while recent scoring has fallen to 18.2. The line leaves less room for error than his current form suggests.

raOVER 12.552%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists total is 12.8 using 5.9 RPG and 6.9 APG, and his last 5 rebounds are elevated at 8.0 RPG. This is close, but the recent rebounding bump makes the over slightly more appealing.

timelineUNDER 23.5 PTS