Hayes’ rebound floor looks stronger than his scoring ceiling

His season mean is 6.81 points and his last 10 is 7.2, both below 9.5. Recent scoring has also been inconsistent, and the value data shows the best side at UNDER on every listed 9.5 points market.

His season mean is exactly 4.0 rebounds and his last 10 is 4.1, well below 5.5. Value data strongly supports UNDER with a 27.8% edge and 59.57 EV per 100 at DraftKings.

He averages 0.9 assists per game this season and 0.8 over the last 10, so 0.5 is a low bar. The volatility is high, but the raw average still favors at least one assist more often than not.

He averages 0.7 blocks on the season and 1.2 over the last 10, with a 2.0-block last 5. The recent defensive spike makes 0.5 a reachable threshold despite normal variance.

He averages just 0.4 steals on the season and 0.6 over the last 10, so the under is still slightly safer on a 0.5 line. Recent defensive pop is better captured by blocks than steals.

His season stocks average is 1.14, but the last 10 is 1.8 and the last 5 is 2.6, showing real defensive upside. The combo is volatile, though, so confidence stays modest.

His season points plus rebounds profile is 10.8 using 6.8 PPG and 4.0 RPG, with recent form not enough to justify a stronger over lean. Combo props are higher variance, so the under is preferred unless the role expands.

He averages only 0.9 assists, so points plus assists is heavily dependent on scoring volume. With points projected below market and assists still modest, the under holds the cleaner edge.