AI Model:

Jarred Vanderbilt▼

LAL · PF

PPG

4.4

RPG

4.6

APG

1.2

L5 PPG

2.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.8

4.4

2.6

RPG-0.6

4.6

4.0

APG+0.4

1.2

1.6

SPG-0.6

0.8

0.2

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

7.5

BOS

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs BOS: 3 pts

ORL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs ORL: 2 pts

PHX

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHX: 0 pts

GSW

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs GSW: 2 pts

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 0 pts

IND

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs IND: 2 pts

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 3 pts

MIN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIN: 4 pts

CHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs CHI: 0 pts

DET

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs DET: 4 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 7.5STAKE

84%

REB

UNDER 7.5STAKE

82%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

78%

3PM

UNDER 0.5

74%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

79%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

77%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

81%

UNDER 0.5

73%

P+R

UNDER 14.5STAKE

86%

R+A

UNDER 8.5STAKE

80%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

4.0

3.1

RPG

4.1

2.9

APG

1.1

1.0

vs IND (H2H)6 games

PPG

3.3

RPG

6.2

APG

1.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
DeMar DeRozan	3	6	100%	+53.2%	medium
James Harden	2	6	0%	-46.8%	low
Zach LaVine	2	6	125%	+53.2%	low
Kawhi Leonard	3	6	20%

Vanderbilt’s minutes dip keeps the ceiling capped

Jarred Vanderbilt is in a clear downtrend, with his last 5 scoring at 2.6 PPG and his last 10 at 2.0 PPG, well below his 4.4 season average. His minutes have also dropped to 11.6 in the last 10 compared with 17.7 for the season, which limits every counting stat. The matchup is not especially favorable, but the bigger issue is role: his recent production suggests a low-usage rotation piece rather than an active fantasy builder. With rebounds, assists, and defensive stats all sitting below season norms lately, the safer lean is to the under on most standard props.

Stat Trends

PPG

2.6(↓ from 4.4)

RPG

4.0(↓ from 4.6)

APG

1.6(↑ from 1.2)

STL+BLK

0.4(↓ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and that data does not provide enough usage detail to make a strong defender-based call. The opponent profile shows a 120.51 defensive rating and 100 pace, but Vanderbilt’s role and minutes remain the bigger factor than matchup specifics.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jarred Vanderbilt▼	Points	7.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	2/2	100%	5	✓
Jarred Vanderbilt▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	2/2	90%	1	✓
Jarred Vanderbilt▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	90%	0	✓
Jarred Vanderbilt▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	80%	1	✗
Jarred Vanderbilt▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	79%HIGH	—	100%	1	✓
Jarred Vanderbilt▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	77%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Jarred Vanderbilt▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	81%HIGH	—	90%	1	✓
Jarred Vanderbilt▼	Turnovers	0.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	—	70%	0	✓
Jarred Vanderbilt▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	86%HIGH	2/2	100%	6	✓
Jarred Vanderbilt▼	R+A	8.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	2/2	90%	1	✓

ML Scout Analysis

REB3OVER28%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)9/1850%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R7.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)9/1850%▼

PTS3.5UNDER2%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x9/1850%▼

PRA7.5OVER35%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)9/1850%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x5/1828%▼

AST1UNDER22%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)6/1833%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA1UNDER3%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)7/1839%▼

R+A4.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)9/1850%▼

Featured Pick

Jarred Vanderbilt

Points UNDER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season scoring average is 4.4 and his last 10 is only 2.0, with minutes dropping to 11.6. The line is more than 3 points above his season norm and far above recent form, making the under the strongest play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Andrew Nembhard	2	2	2	0%	0%
Pascal Siakam	2	2	3	100%	100%
T.J. McConnell	1	2	0	0%	0%
Kobe Brown	2	1	0	0%	0%
Aaron Nesmith	2	1	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 7.584%HIGH

He is averaging 4.4 points on the season, 2.6 in his last 5, and 2.0 in his last 10. With his minutes down to 11.6 in the last 10, 7.5 is too high.

reboundsUNDER 7.582%HIGH

Season rebound average is 4.6 and his last 10 is 3.1, far below this line. His reduced minutes make it difficult to project anywhere near 8 boards.

assistsUNDER 2.578%HIGH

He averages just 1.2 assists for the season and 0.8 over the last 10. The recent role reduction keeps this below 2.5 more often than not.

threesUNDER 0.574%HIGH

He averages only 0.45 made threes per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. That makes the under the more logical side at 0.5.

stealsUNDER 1.579%HIGH

His season steal average is 0.8, but it has fallen to 0.2 in both the last 5 and last 10. Hitting 2 steals is a stretch given the current form.

blocksUNDER 0.577%HIGH

He averages 0.3 blocks on the season and just 0.2 recently. With limited playing time, the over at 0.5 is less appealing.

stocksUNDER 1.581%HIGH

His season stocks average is 1.07 and it drops to 0.4 over the last 5. This is another category where the recent minute decline hurts upside.

turnoversUNDER 0.573%HIGH

He averages only 0.5 turnovers over the last 20 and 0.3 over the last 10. Low usage and short stints keep turnover risk minimal.

prUNDER 14.586%HIGH

His season points plus rebounds is 9.0, and recent form is even lower. A 14.5 line is well above his current production level.

raUNDER 8.580%HIGH

He combines for 9.0 points and rebounds on the season, but recent output and minutes are both down. The last 10 rebound and scoring rates do not support an over here.

timelineUNDER 7.5 PTS