AI Model:

Austin Reaves▲

LAL · SG

PPG

23.5

RPG

4.7

APG

5.5

L5 PPG

19.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.1

23.5

19.4

RPG-0.7

4.7

4.0

APG-0.1

5.5

5.4

SPG+0.1

1.1

1.2

BPG+0.4

0.4

0.8

OVER 23.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

23.5

IND

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs IND: 19 pts

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 25 pts

MIN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIN: 31 pts

CHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs CHI: 30 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 32 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 15 pts

HOU

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs HOU: 14 pts

MIA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIA: 18 pts

ORL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs ORL: 26 pts

DET

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs DET: 24 pts

Over 23.5

Under 23.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 23.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

AST

OVER 5.5FANDUEL

60%

REB

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

58%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

55%

OVER 2

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.7

18.1

RPG

4.5

3.6

APG

4.9

vs IND (H2H)7 games

PPG

20.6

RPG

5.3

APG

4.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Donte DiVincenzo	4	17	77%	+5.5%	medium
Keyonte George	2	11	91%	+32.8%	low
Anthony Edwards	3	9	39%	-15.7%	medium
Brandin Podziemski	3	8	25%

Reaves is thriving, but the best edge leans on assists and an under-friendly rebounding spot

Austin Reaves is in strong overall form with a season line of 23.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists across 46 games, and his last-10 scoring average is 23.4 with 39.0 mpg. His recent minutes are up to 39.8 over the last 5, but his last-5 scoring at 19.4 is below his season mean, suggesting some regression risk if the market pushes his points too high. The value data still shows positive edges on points and assists, while rebounds look softer against a 4.5 line. Indiana’s defense context is favorable enough for production, but not so strong that it overrides the season-based caution on inflated overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.4(↓ from 23.5)

RPG

4.0(↓ from 4.7)

APG

5.4(→ from 5.5)

3PM

1.4(↓ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

The provided defender data shows Andrew Nembhard, Tyrese Haliburton, and Aaron Nesmith, but the only specific defender matchup data available is those listed minutes and points allowed. no specific defender matchup data beyond the provided names and splits; Indiana’s team defense shows a 120.51 defensive rating with 100 pace and a -0.44 three suppression, which is not a strong deterrent to Reaves’ scoring and playmaking.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Austin Reaves▼	Points	23.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	FLIP	25	✓
Austin Reaves▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	40%		8	✓
Austin Reaves▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	FLIP	1	✓
Austin Reaves▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		2	✓
Austin Reaves▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%		2	✓
Austin Reaves▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%		2	✗

ML Scout Analysis

REB4OVER21%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

P+R25UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

3PM2UNDER30%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x5/2025%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA6.5UNDER25%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

PRA28.5UNDER24%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A26UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

PTS19UNDER20%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

AST5UNDER15%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM5UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

FTA5.5UNDER0%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

STL1UNDER20%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

Featured Pick

Austin Reaves

Assists OVER 5.5MEDIUM

This is the best blend of form and price: 5.5 assists season average, 5.8 over the last 10, and 39.0 mpg recently. The listed FanDuel prop also carries a 7.3% edge, making it the most attractive lower-variance option among the available props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Andrew Nembhard	2	5	4	33%	33%
Aaron Nesmith	2	4	0	0%	0%
Pascal Siakam	2	3	8	38%	38%
Jay Huff	2	3	2	25%	25%
Jarace Walker	2	2	4	50%	75%

pointsOVER 23.562%MEDIUM

Season scoring is 23.5 PPG and last-10 is 23.4, matching the market line closely. The value data shows a 9.5% edge on the over at this exact line, though last-5 scoring has cooled to 19.4, so confidence stays moderate.

assistsOVER 5.560%MEDIUM

He averages 5.5 assists on the season and 5.8 over the last 10, with 39.0 mpg in that stretch. The value prop shows a 7.3% edge on the over, and his recent playmaking volume supports it.

reboundsUNDER 4.558%MEDIUM

Reaves is at 4.7 rebounds per game season-long and 4.5 over the last 10, which makes a 4.5 line tight. The value sheet favors the under at several books, and the rebound profile is not strong enough to push for an over.

threesUNDER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.35 made threes on the season, but the last-5 drops to 1.4 and last-10 is 2.2, so the recent trend is softer. With no positive edge on the over in the value data, the under is the cleaner side.

stocksOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.5 stocks on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, with recent games showing multiple 2-stock outings. Variance is meaningful, but the baseline is enough to justify a cautious over lean.

turnoversOVER 256%MEDIUM

His turnover rate has been elevated at 2.1 per game over the last 10 and 2.3 over the last 20, with 2.0 in the last 5. Given his high-minute role, the over is a reasonable lean if this line sits near 2.0.

timelineOVER 23.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Reaves is thriving, but the best edge leans on assists and an under-friendly rebounding spot

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

OVER 23.5 PTS