AI Model:

Aaron Nesmith▼

IND · SG

PPG

13.5

RPG

4.1

APG

1.9

L5 PPG

17.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.5

13.5

17.0

RPG-2.1

4.1

2.0

APG-1.1

1.9

0.8

SPG-0.4

0.6

0.2

BPG-0.1

0.5

0.4

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

14.5

LAC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs LAC: 2 pts

LAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAL: 7 pts

POR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs POR: 9 pts

SAC

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAC: 29 pts

NYK

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NYK: 12 pts

MIL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIL: 32 pts

NYK

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs NYK: 14 pts

POR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs POR: 15 pts

SAS

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs SAS: 5 pts

ORL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs ORL: 19 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

AST

UNDER 2.5

66%

3PM

OVER 2.5BOVADA

57%

STL

UNDER 0.5

60%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

59%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

P+R

UNDER 19.5STAKE

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.2

12.7

RPG

3.2

2.7

APG

2.0

1.8

vs LAL (H2H)11 games

PPG

9.1

RPG

2.3

APG

1.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Derrick White	2	11	38%	-8.1%	low
Luka Dončić	2	10	43%	-8.1%	low
Jalen Brunson	2	10	44%	-3.9%	low
Amen Thompson	2	9	0%	-41.4%

Nesmith’s scoring upside is real, but rebounds look like the cleaner angle

Aaron Nesmith enters this matchup with season averages of 13.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, and 1.9 APG across 29.5 MPG, while his last 5 games have jumped to 17.0 PPG but with just 2.0 RPG and 0.8 APG. That recent scoring spike is above his season baseline, so there’s some regression risk, especially against a Lakers defense allowing only a 114.96 def_rating with a -0.105 scoring suppression mark. His home splits are stronger than his away numbers, and at Indiana he averages 16.2 PPG and 3.2 RPG in 32.2 MPG, which supports a steady offensive role tonight.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.0(↑ from 13.5)

RPG

2.0(↓ from 4.1)

APG

0.8(↓ from 1.9)

3PM

3.6(↑ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key_defenders. The opponent profile shows a 114.96 defensive rating with -0.105 scoring suppression and -0.455 three suppression, which is not an ideal environment for chasing upside scoring overs.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Aaron Nesmith▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	14.5→17.5	14	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	10%	FLIP	3	✗
Aaron Nesmith▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	90%		1	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	FLIP	2	✗
Aaron Nesmith▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	FLIP	1	✗
Aaron Nesmith▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	60%		0	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	90%		1	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	P+R	19.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	18→19.5	17	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R17.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+A16UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

R+A4.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

Featured Pick

Aaron Nesmith

Rebounds OVER 3.5HIGH

This is the clearest value on the board because the data shows a 9.1% edge at DraftKings and a 9.3% edge at Bovada, both with positive EV. His season rebound average is 4.12, his home rebound average is 3.2, and the market is pricing a number that remains accessible despite recent short-term softness.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Luka Dončić	2	10	18	33%	43%
Austin Reaves	2	3	6	75%	75%
Luke Kennard	2	3	0	0%	0%
Jake LaRavia	2	2	0	0%	0%
Jaxson Hayes	2	1	3	33%	33%

pointsUNDER 14.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 13.5 points, and the recent 17.0 over the last 5 is above that baseline, creating regression risk. The matchup and prior history vs this opponent are also modest at 9.09 PPG in 11 games.

reboundsOVER 3.564%MEDIUM

Value data shows a 9.1% edge on the over at 3.5 rebounds with positive EV, and his home split is 3.2 RPG with 32.2 MPG. Even though the last 5 is only 2.0 RPG, the market support makes this the strongest side.

assistsUNDER 2.566%MEDIUM

He averages just 1.93 APG for the season and 1.4 APG over the last 10, with only 0.8 APG in the last 5. That makes 2.5 a high ask for a low-assist role player.

threesOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.3 made threes per game on the season and has hit 3.6 fg3m per game over the last 5. The line is close, but his volume and recent hot shooting keep the over live.

stealsUNDER 0.560%MEDIUM

His season average is only 0.6 spg, and the last 10 drops to 0.3 spg. With low volatility on the defensive counting stats, the under is the safer side.

blocksUNDER 0.559%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 0.5 bpg on the season, but recent production is 0.4 over the last 5 and 0.5 over the last 10. That makes the under slightly preferable at a standard 0.5 line.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.09, while recent form is only 0.6 over the last 5 and 0.8 over the last 10. He does not project as a reliable 2+ stocks candidate.

prUNDER 19.562%MEDIUM

Points are the main driver here, but rebounds have been weaker recently at 2.0 over the last 5. A 19.5 combo line is a bit rich relative to his 13.5 PPG and 4.1 RPG season profile.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS