AI Model:

Rudy Gobert▲

MIN · C

PPG

11.0

RPG

11.5

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

11.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.8

11.0

11.8

RPG+1.9

11.5

13.4

APG-0.7

1.7

1.0

SPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

BPG+0.6

1.6

2.2

OVER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

TOR

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs TOR: 18 pts

ORL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ORL: 12 pts

LAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs LAL: 3 pts

LAC

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs LAC: 9 pts

GSW

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs GSW: 18 pts

OKC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs OKC: 2 pts

PHX

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHX: 9 pts

UTA

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs UTA: 21 pts

POR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs POR: 18 pts

BOS

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs BOS: 9 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 10.5STAKE

56%

REB

OVER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

AST

OVER 1.5STAKE

51%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

57%

BLK

OVER 1.5STAKE

61%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

63%

P+R

UNDER 21.5STAKE

58%

R+A

UNDER 13.5STAKE

57%

OVER 0

74%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.7

7.9

RPG

12.0

11.8

APG

1.4

2.4

vs HOU (H2H)16 games

PPG

14.8

RPG

12.9

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Donovan Clingan	4	35	50%	-24.9%	medium
Brook Lopez	4	22	54%	-30.1%	medium
Deandre Ayton	3	21	79%	+10.0%	medium
Jusuf Nurkić	3	21	38%

Gobert’s rebounding floor is strong, but points are the shakier angle

Rudy Gobert is trending up overall, with his last 10 showing 11.9 PPG and 11.3 RPG, while his last 5 has spiked to 13.4 rebounds and 3.2 stocks. The big boost to his projection is the absence of Anthony Edwards, which should keep Gobert involved as a stabilizing interior option, but his scoring remains volatile and his points season mean is still only 11.01. At home he’s been better than away in points and rebounds, and he’s historically strong vs this opponent with 14.75 PPG and 12.875 RPG across 16 games. The matchup data also points to no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the safest lean is on his board work rather than a scoring over.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.8(↑ from 11.0)

RPG

13.4(↑ from 11.5)

APG

1.0(↓ from 1.7)

Stocks

3.2(↑ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

The opponent data shows no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no single named defensive assignment to target. Houston’s team defense allows a 109.99 defensive rating with pace at 100, and Gobert has strong historical production against this opponent.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Rudy Gobert▼	Points	10.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		14	✓
Rudy Gobert▼	Rebounds	11.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		14	✓
Rudy Gobert▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	51%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		1	✗
Rudy Gobert▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%		1	✓
Rudy Gobert▼	Blocks	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	40%		5	✓
Rudy Gobert▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	70%	1.5→2	6	✓
Rudy Gobert▼	P+R	21.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%		28	✗
Rudy Gobert▼	R+A	13.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	FLIP	15	✗
Rudy Gobert▼	Double-Double	0	OVER	74%HIGH	—	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PTS11.5UNDER20%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%+5.7% edge▼

PRA24.5UNDER10%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

REB10.5OVER12%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)13/2065%+8.9% edge▼

P+R22.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

BLK1.5UNDER34%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

R+A14UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

P+A12OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Rudy Gobert

Rebounds OVER 11.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because Gobert’s season average is 11.47 rebounds, his last 10 is 11.3, and his last 5 jumps to 13.4. He also has 12.875 rebounds in 16 career games vs this opponent, and the home split is 12.0 RPG, giving the over multiple paths to cash.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Alperen Sengun	2	15	23	50%	50%
Clint Capela	2	4	2	50%	50%
Kevin Durant	2	2	15	36%	50%
Jabari Smith Jr.	2	1	5	67%	67%
Amen Thompson	2	1	2	25%	25%

pointsOVER 10.556%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.01 points and his home split is 14.7 PPG, but the recent scoring is still just 11.8 in the last 5. This is playable, though the standard deviation of 5.31 keeps the confidence modest.

reboundsOVER 11.560%MEDIUM

Gobert averages 11.47 rebounds on the season and 11.3 over the last 10, with 13.4 rebounds in the last 5. His home average is 12.0 RPG and he has 12.875 RPG in 16 games vs this opponent.

assistsOVER 1.551%MEDIUM

He’s at 1.72 assists per game for the season and 1.8 over the last 10, so the baseline supports a small over. The role is low-volume, but the line is modest.

stealsOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, clearing a 0.5 line consistently. The recent 1.0 steals per game over the last 5 adds support.

blocksOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.6 blocks and he’s at 2.2 over the last 5, which is above the posted line. The risk is variance, but the production level is clearly strong enough to lean over.

stocksOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

Gobert’s season stocks average is 2.4 and he’s at 2.5 over the last 10, with 3.2 in the last 5. Even with typical variance, that’s comfortably above a 1.5 threshold.

prUNDER 21.558%MEDIUM

His season P+R profile is strong, but the market line is demanding and his points remain volatile at 11.01 season average. With OVER bias caution, the safer angle is to avoid paying for the combined ceiling.

raUNDER 13.557%MEDIUM

He averages 11.47 rebounds and 1.72 assists, which totals 13.19 on the season. That is close to the line, but the combo prop variance makes the under slightly preferable.

double_doubleOVER 074%HIGH

He regularly clears double-double territory with 11.47 RPG and 11.01 PPG season averages, plus 12.875 RPG in 16 games vs this opponent. The rebounding floor makes this his most reliable outcome.

timelineOVER 10.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Gobert’s rebounding floor is strong, but points are the shakier angle

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

OVER 10.5 PTS