AI Model:

Kevin Durant▲

HOU · SF

PPG

25.8

RPG

5.4

APG

4.5

L5 PPG

25.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.2

25.8

25.6

RPG-0.6

5.4

4.8

APG-0.5

4.5

4.0

SPG-0.1

0.9

0.8

BPG-0.5

0.9

0.4

UNDER 26.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

26.5

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 20 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 23 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 29 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 11 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 32 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 18 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 18 pts

ATL

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs ATL: 25 pts

MIA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MIA: 27 pts

CHI

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs CHI: 40 pts

Over 26.5

Under 26.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 26.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

REB

OVER 4.5FANDUEL

61%

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

55%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

53%

points+rebounds

UNDER 32.5STAKE

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

23.2

30.1

RPG

5.7

6.2

APG

4.7

4.1

vs MIN (H2H)10 games

PPG

26.6

RPG

6.0

APG

4.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Toumani Camara	3	18	75%	+5.4%	medium
DeMar DeRozan	4	17	50%	-1.7%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	2	16	59%	+2.8%	low
Saddiq Bey	4	16	54%

Durant’s scoring floor is strong, but the rebound edge stands out most

Kevin Durant enters this matchup averaging 25.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 4.5 APG on the season, with his last 20 games staying right in line at 25.9/5.9/4.5. The recent form is steady rather than explosive: his last 5 show 25.6 PPG and 4.8 RPG, while his last 10 dip slightly in scoring to 24.3 PPG. With Anthony Edwards out and no other opponent-specific personnel edge available beyond no specific defender matchup data, the strongest angle is on Durant maintaining his all-around volume rather than forcing a ceiling game. The matchup context is mixed: Minnesota has a 114.45 defensive rating and suppresses scoring (-0.219) and threes (-0.383), which nudges this toward more conservative projections.

Stat Trends

PPG

25.6(→ from 25.8)

RPG

4.8(↓ from 5.4)

APG

4.0(↓ from 4.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. Minnesota’s defense is the main contextual factor here, with a 114.45 defensive rating and negative scoring and three-point suppression, which makes Durant’s ceiling slightly harder to reach.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Kevin Durant▼	Points	26.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		30	✗
Kevin Durant▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	FLIP	3	✗
Kevin Durant▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		8	✗
Kevin Durant▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	FLIP	2	✗
Kevin Durant▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	—	50%	FLIP	3	✓
Kevin Durant▼	points+rebounds	32.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

AST4.5OVER56%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 8x13/2065%+9.4% edgeConfidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

BLK0.5OVER47%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x13/2065%+8.5% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to HIGH; Value edge shifted +0.247▼

P+A30.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

REB5.5UNDER4%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

PRA37.5UNDER26%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R31UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

PTS25.5UNDER23%gbt_pointsAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

3PM2.5UNDER35%gbt_three_pmAvoid (6/20)10/2050%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Kevin Durant

Rebounds OVER 4.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest value angle on the board: Durant’s season average is 5.43 rebounds and the value data shows a 6.1% edge with +9.81 EV per 100. The line sits below both his season and recent production, giving the OVER the best combination of floor and price.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaden McDaniels	2	16	15	55%	59%
Naz Reid	2	4	9	75%	100%
Kyle Anderson	1	3	0	0%	0%
Julius Randle	2	2	6	38%	38%
Rudy Gobert	2	2	6	60%	60%

pointsUNDER 26.556%MEDIUM

His season mean is 25.78 and recent mean is 24.3, both below 26.5. Minnesota also shows scoring suppression (-0.219), and Durant’s last 10 scoring has been below this number.

reboundsOVER 4.561%MEDIUM

Durant’s season average is 5.43 rebounds and his last 10 is 5.5, so 4.5 is a modest bar. The value data shows a 6.1% edge and +9.81 EV per 100 on the OVER.

assistsUNDER 4.558%MEDIUM

He’s averaging 4.46 assists on the season and 4.1 over the last 10, which sits just under the line. With assist volume not spiking, the UNDER is slightly favored in a conservative read.

threesOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

Durant is at 2.33 made threes per game on the season and 2.3 over the last 5, so this is close but playable. The line is supported by his volume, though Minnesota’s three suppression keeps confidence moderate.

stocksOVER 1.553%MEDIUM

He averages 1.73 stocks on the season and 1.5 over the last 10, so this is right around his normal range. Variance is meaningful here, but the season baseline supports a slight OVER lean.

points+reboundsUNDER 32.557%MEDIUM

His season P+R projection is 31.21 and his recent scoring/rebounding blend does not clear 32.5 cleanly. This combo also carries more variance, so the safer side is the UNDER.

timelineUNDER 26.5 PTS