AI Model:

Jabari Smith Jr.▼

HOU · PF

PPG

15.5

RPG

6.8

APG

1.8

L5 PPG

16.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.9

15.5

16.4

RPG-0.6

6.8

6.2

APG+0.4

1.8

2.2

SPG-0.4

0.8

0.4

BPG-0.3

0.9

0.6

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 3 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 17 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 23 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 11 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 16 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 22 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 18 pts

ATL

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs ATL: 23 pts

MIA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MIA: 13 pts

CHI

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs CHI: 6 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5STAKE

60%

REB

UNDER 7.5STAKE

58%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

63%

3PM

UNDER 2.5

61%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

55%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

57%

OVER 1.5

54%

P+R

UNDER 21.5STAKE

56%

P+A

UNDER 16.5STAKE

57%

R+A

UNDER 9.5STAKE

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.9

15.0

RPG

6.9

5.6

APG

2.2

1.3

vs MIN (H2H)8 games

PPG

12.6

RPG

6.5

APG

1.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Cameron Johnson	4	17	42%	-12.1%	medium
Julius Randle	2	15	42%	-6.9%	low
Trey Murphy III	3	11	67%	+10.2%	medium
Brandon Ingram	2	11	57%

Minutes are strong, but the matchup and season baseline point to a cautious scoring spot

Jabari Smith Jr. is logging heavy run, with 35 MPG on the season and 36.1 MPG over his last 10, but his production has cooled slightly with a down trend. His season averages of 15.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 1.8 APG are supported by solid home splits, yet his last 5 scoring sample at 16.4 PPG sits only modestly above baseline. Minnesota’s defense is allowing a scoring suppression of -0.219 and a three-point suppression of -0.383, which makes efficiency and volume less attractive for overs. The absence of Anthony Edwards helps the matchup environment overall, but the data still leans more conservative than aggressive on his main stat props.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.4(↑ from 15.5)

RPG

6.2(↓ from 6.8)

APG

2.2(↑ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

Minnesota’s opponent profile shows a 114.45 defensive rating with -0.219 scoring suppression and -0.383 three suppression, which is the main drag on his scoring and shooting props. The provided key defender data shows no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed players and their minutes/points allowed, so the edge comes more from team-level suppression than a single isolation matchup.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	FLIP	16	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		12	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		1	✓
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		2	✓
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	50%		1	✓
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	40%		1	✓
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%		2	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	30%		3	✓
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	P+R	21.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		28	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	P+A	16.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	30%		17	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	R+A	9.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	—	13	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA22.5OVER40%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 7x14/2070%+17.4% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS13.5UNDER3%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x13/2065%▼

P+R23.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

REB6.5OVER7%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.142▼

3PM1.5OVER13%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 7x14/2070%+6.8% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+A19UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

Jabari Smith Jr.

Rebounds UNDER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season average is 6.8 rebounds, his last 10 is 6.3, and his away average drops to 5.6. Unlike points, this line is not being propped up by a strong recent spike, so the under is supported by both season and recent form.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Julius Randle	2	15	14	38%	42%
Naz Reid	2	7	5	50%	63%
Jaden McDaniels	2	3	2	50%	50%
Donte DiVincenzo	2	2	6	40%	60%
Mike Conley	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 14.560%MEDIUM

His season mean is 15.48, but the matchup has -0.219 scoring suppression and -0.383 three suppression, which lowers ceiling. With a down trend and a recent 6-point outing, the under is the safer lean despite decent minutes.

reboundsUNDER 7.558%MEDIUM

He averages 6.8 rebounds on the season and 6.3 over his last 10, both below this line. Minnesota’s slower pace also reduces rebound volume, and his away average is only 5.6 RPG.

assistsUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.82 APG and his last 10 is 2.3 APG, but that recent bump still sits well below 2.5. This is a volatile category for him, and the season baseline is the better anchor.

threesUNDER 2.561%MEDIUM

He averages 2.21 made threes per game, but the opponent’s three suppression is -0.383 and his recent last-10 mark is 1.9. That combination makes the over less appealing than his raw season rate suggests.

stealsOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals per game on the season, which supports clearing 0.5 in a majority of games. Even with a recent dip to 0.4 over the last 5, the season rate still favors the over.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 blocks per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 20, so 0.5 is a reasonable target. The recent last-5 mark of 0.6 is slightly lower, but still enough to support the over.

stocksUNDER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season average for stocks is 1.73, but his last 5 is only 1.0 and last 10 is 1.2, showing recent regression. Since combined defensive stats carry variance, the under is the more conservative play if the line is near 1.5.

turnoversOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

He is at 1.2 turnovers over his last 5 and 1.4 over his last 10, with a 35+ minute workload. If the line is 1.5, the recent usage is close enough to justify a slight over lean, but confidence should stay modest.

prUNDER 21.556%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 22.28 on the raw averages, but this combo is still volatile and the matchup suppresses scoring. With under-friendly trends in rebounds and efficiency, the under is preferable at this number.

paUNDER 16.557%MEDIUM

He averages 17.3 points plus assists on the season, but assists are the weaker leg and the line sits close to his combined baseline. Given the downtrend in scoring and modest assist volume, the under has a slight edge.

raUNDER 9.560%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists average is 8.6, and his last 10 is 8.6 as well, both clearly below 9.5. That makes the under the cleaner combo angle despite his solid minutes.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS