AI Model:

Ayo Dosunmu—

MIN · SG

PPG

14.6

RPG

3.2

APG

3.5

L5 PPG

18.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.2

14.6

18.8

RPG+4.0

3.2

7.2

APG+0.9

3.5

4.4

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG+0.2

0.2

0.4

OVER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

13.5

MEM

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MEM: 14 pts

TOR

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs TOR: 13 pts

ORL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ORL: 3 pts

LAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs LAL: 13 pts

GSW

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs GSW: 12 pts

OKC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs OKC: 18 pts

PHX

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHX: 19 pts

UTA

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs UTA: 23 pts

POR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs POR: 17 pts

BOS

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs BOS: 17 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 13.5STAKE

58%

REB

UNDER 4.5BOVADA

67%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

56%

3PM

UNDER 2.5BOVADA

61%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

70%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

59%

UNDER 2

60%

PRA

UNDER 23.5

55%

P+A

UNDER 17

57%

UNDER 0.5

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.6

12.8

RPG

3.6

4.1

APG

3.5

3.3

vs HOU (H2H)7 games

PPG

11.3

RPG

2.1

APG

2.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
VJ Edgecombe	3	11	28%	-29.6%	medium
Egor Dëmin	3	11	38%	-26.8%	medium
Desmond Bane	4	11	67%	+14.9%	medium
Ausar Thompson	3	10	38%

Minutes and usage are up, but the scoring line is still rich

Ayo Dosunmu’s role has expanded with Anthony Edwards out, and his last 5 games show a clear minutes bump to 32.8 MPG with 18.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and 4.4 APG. That said, his season baseline is still more modest at 14.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 3.5 APG, and his recent scoring surge sits well above that norm. Houston’s defense profile is respectable, and his head-to-head production vs this opponent is only 11.3 PPG, so the current elevated points lines are asking a lot.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.8(↑ from 14.6)

RPG

7.2(↑ from 3.2)

APG

4.4(↑ from 3.5)

Key Matchup

His opponent history is modest at 11.285714285714286 PPG, 2.142857142857143 RPG, and 2.142857142857143 APG across 7 games, so there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on. Houston’s defense shows a 109.99 defensive rating with -1.223 scoring suppression and -0.518 three suppression, which slightly dampens upside.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution
Ayo Dosunmu▼	Points	13.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Ayo Dosunmu▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	FLIP
Ayo Dosunmu▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Ayo Dosunmu▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	FLIP
Ayo Dosunmu▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	30%
Ayo Dosunmu▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	80%
Ayo Dosunmu▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	70%
Ayo Dosunmu▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	100%	FLIP
Ayo Dosunmu▼	PRA	23.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	—
Ayo Dosunmu▼	P+A	17	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	17→17.5
Ayo Dosunmu▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PRA27.5UNDER16%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x5/2025%+24.0% edge▼

AST4.5UNDER20%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x5/2025%+24.0% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+R18.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

P+A17.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

PTS17.5OVER2%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)6/2030%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.415; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

REB4.5OVER23%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PM1.5UNDER24%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%+13.3% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Ayo Dosunmu

Rebounds UNDER 4.5MEDIUM

This is a clean regression spot because his season average is only 3.2 rebounds and his home average is 3.6, well below the 4.5 line. The last 5 spike to 7.2 is much higher than his season norm, making the under the sharper side despite his recent stretch.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
JD Davison	1	3	0	0%	0%
Reed Sheppard	1	2	3	25%	38%
Jabari Smith Jr.	1	1	2	33%	33%
Amen Thompson	1	1	2	50%	50%
Kevin Durant	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 13.558%MEDIUM

He’s averaging 14.6 PPG on the season and 18.8 over the last 5, with 29.2 MPG in the last 10 and 32.8 MPG in the last 5. The line is below his season mean, but his 11.3 PPG vs this opponent and the scoring suppression context keep the confidence moderate.

reboundsUNDER 4.567%MEDIUM

His season average is 3.2 RPG and even his home split is just 3.6 RPG. The last 5 rebound spike to 7.2 looks high relative to his season and recent 10-game baseline of 5.2, so regression risk is strong.

assistsOVER 3.556%MEDIUM

He’s at 3.5 APG for the season and 4.4 APG over the last 5, with 3.7 APG over the last 10. The line is right near his normal production, so the edge is small but the increased role supports a slight lean over.

threesUNDER 2.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.81 made threes on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, both below the 2.5 line. His recent volume is decent, but the prop is still priced above his typical output.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals per game on the season and 1.0 stocks in recent form. At a 0.5 line, he only needs one steal, but the variance is high so confidence stays modest.

blocksUNDER 0.570%HIGH

His season block average is only 0.2 and recent production is 0.3 to 0.4. A 0.5 line requires a ceiling outcome that he does not reach often.

stocksUNDER 1.559%MEDIUM

He averages 1.03 stocks on the season, with recent marks around 1.0 to 1.1. The combo needs multiple defensive events and his baseline is below the line.

turnoversUNDER 260%MEDIUM

He’s at 1.3 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 1.5 over the last 10, both below a 2.0 type threshold. Even with added minutes, his turnover profile has not been especially high.

praUNDER 23.555%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 21.0 using the provided averages, and the recent surge pushes it higher, but combo props carry extra variance. Given the inflated recent rebound/points stretch, the safer lean is still under a mid-20s number.

paUNDER 1757%MEDIUM

Using season averages, his points plus assists sit at 18.1, but the current market is likely shaded toward his recent spike. With opponent history at 13.4 PA and a tougher defensive context, the under is slightly preferable.

double_doubleUNDER 0.566%MEDIUM

He has shown better rebounding lately, but his season averages are only 14.6 points and 3.2 rebounds. Reaching 10+ in two categories remains a ceiling outcome rather than a baseline expectation.

timelineOVER 13.5 PTS