AI Model:

Amen Thompson—

HOU · PG

PPG

18.0

RPG

7.9

APG

5.1

L5 PPG

21.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.2

18.0

21.2

RPG+2.3

7.9

10.2

APG-1.5

5.1

3.6

SPG-0.4

1.4

1.0

BPG+0.2

0.6

0.8

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

19.5

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 26 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 23 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 23 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 16 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 23 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 19 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 26 pts

ATL

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs ATL: 14 pts

MIA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MIA: 24 pts

CHI

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs CHI: 23 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5STAKE

63%

REB

UNDER 8.5STAKE

61%

AST

UNDER 5.5STAKE

68%

3PM

UNDER 0.5

74%

STL

UNDER 1.5

59%

BLK

OVER 0.5

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2

60%

OVER 2

57%

PRA

UNDER 32.5

55%

P+A

UNDER 24.5STAKE

63%

P+R

UNDER 27.5STAKE

60%

R+A

OVER 13.5STAKE

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.1

16.8

RPG

8.7

7.5

APG

4.9

3.9

vs MIN (H2H)8 games

PPG

13.1

RPG

7.6

APG

2.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jamal Murray	4	21	50%	-12.6%	medium
De'Aaron Fox	3	19	60%	-2.6%	medium
Austin Reaves	3	15	28%	-30.4%	medium
Jalen Brunson	2	15	11%

Usage stays elevated, but the points and rebounds prices are a little too rich

Amen Thompson is still logging huge minutes, with 37.1 MPG on the season and 37.8 MPG over his last 10. His scoring is up recently at 21.7 PPG over the last 10, but that sits well above his 18.0 season average, so some regression risk remains, especially against a Minnesota defense allowing a 114.45 rating and suppressing scoring. The absences of Fred VanVleet and Anthony Edwards matter, but the available data still points more toward stable all-around production than a big scoring spike.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.2(↑ from 18.0)

RPG

10.2(↑ from 7.9)

APG

3.6(↓ from 5.1)

Key Matchup

Anthony Edwards is out, but no specific defender matchup data is available from the key_defenders list. Minnesota's defense has a 114.45 rating with scoring suppression of -0.219 and three-point suppression of -0.383, which leans against easy scoring.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Amen Thompson▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	30%		11	✓
Amen Thompson▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	FLIP	9	✗
Amen Thompson▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		10	✗
Amen Thompson▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	70%	—	0	✓
Amen Thompson▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		0	✓
Amen Thompson▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%		2	✓
Amen Thompson▼	STL+BLK	2	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	80%	2→2.5	2	✗
Amen Thompson▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	2→2.5	2	✗
Amen Thompson▼	PRA	32.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	32.5→33.5	30	✓
Amen Thompson▼	P+A	24.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	—	21	✓
Amen Thompson▼	P+R	27.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	—	20	✓
Amen Thompson▼	R+A	13.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	FLIP	19	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS16.5UNDER1%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x16/2080%Value edge changed -0.039; Odds moved materially▼

REB7.5UNDER12%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)12/2060%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.091; Odds moved materially▼

STL1.5UNDER37%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%No material changes▼

PRA29.5UNDER12%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)13/2065%Line moved -1.0; Value edge changed -0.035▼

P+R28UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

R+A13.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A25UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 8x7/2035%▼

AST5.5UNDER25%logisticAvoid (6/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Line moved +1.0; Odds moved materially▼

Featured Pick

Amen Thompson

Assists UNDER 5.5HIGH

His season mean is 5.13 APG and his last 10 is 4.9 APG, both below the line, while the last 5 dropped to 3.6 APG. Unlike points or rebounds, the assist profile does not show enough lift to justify the over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Mike Conley	2	8	2	50%	50%
Donte DiVincenzo	2	7	0	0%	0%
Bones Hyland	2	5	0	0%	0%
Naz Reid	2	4	7	67%	83%
Julius Randle	2	3	4	40%	40%

pointsUNDER 19.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 18.04 PPG and his last 20 is 18.1, so 19.5 is a step above his core scoring level. Even with recent form at 21.2 PPG over the last 5, the matchup and regression risk make the under more attractive.

reboundsUNDER 8.561%MEDIUM

He averages 7.87 RPG on the season and 8.2 over the last 20, so 8.5 is slightly above his baseline. His last 5 at 10.2 RPG is hot, but rebounds are volatile and the standard deviation is 3.09.

assistsUNDER 5.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 5.13 APG and his recent mean is 4.9, both below 5.5. The last 5 dipped to 3.6 APG, reinforcing the under despite his high minutes.

threesUNDER 0.574%HIGH

He averages only 0.35 threes per game on the season and 0.4 over the last 10, with just 0.224 from deep. Since his 3-point volume is low, the under is the cleaner side.

stealsUNDER 1.559%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 steals on the season, but his last 10 is only 1.0 and the standard deviation is fairly high. At 1.5, the under is slightly preferred.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 blocks per game and 0.6 over the last 10, so 0.5 is a reachable threshold. His recent 5 has also been 0.8 BPG.

stocksUNDER 260%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.06, but the last 10 is 1.6. Given the volatility and recent drop, under 2.0 is slightly favored.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

He is at 2.5 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 2.0 over the last 10, with a 2.6 home mark. High minutes and ball-handling keep turnover risk elevated.

praUNDER 32.555%MEDIUM

Using his season averages, he projects near 31.0 PRA, while his recent scoring surge has pushed this higher. Combo props are volatile, and the season baseline still leans under 32.5.

paUNDER 24.563%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is 23.17, and his recent APG has slid to 4.9 while points sit at 21.7. The 24.5 line asks for a stronger combined scoring/playmaking night than his baseline.

prUNDER 27.560%MEDIUM

He averages 25.91 points plus rebounds on the season, below 27.5. The recent rebound spike helps, but this remains a tougher number to clear.

raOVER 13.560%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists sit at 12.97, but his last 20 is 12.7 and the last 5 rebounds pop to 10.2. With his full-minute role, 13.5 is reachable even though it is not a high-confidence over.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS