AI Model:
SG
Aaron Holiday▲
HOU · SG
PPG
5.5
RPG
0.9
APG
1.0
L5 PPG
4.8
Last 10 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG-0.7
5.5
4.8
RPG-0.3
0.9
0.6
APG+1.0
1.0
2.0
SPG+0.3
0.5
0.8
BPG-0.1
0.1
0.0
UNDER 6.5 PTS
Last 10 games
1
Current Streak
1
Longest Streak
UNDER
Streak Type
6.5
7
SAC
2026-02-25
2026-02-25 vs SAC: 7 pts
5
MIA
2026-02-28
2026-02-28 vs MIA: 5 pts
2
WAS
2026-03-02
2026-03-02 vs WAS: 2 pts
3
POR
2026-03-06
2026-03-06 vs POR: 3 pts
5
SAS
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 vs SAS: 5 pts
2
TOR
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs TOR: 2 pts
2
DEN
2026-03-11
2026-03-11 vs DEN: 2 pts
9
ATL
2026-03-20
2026-03-20 vs ATL: 9 pts
8
MIA
2026-03-21
2026-03-21 vs MIA: 8 pts
3
CHI
2026-03-23
2026-03-23 vs CHI: 3 pts
Over 6.5
Under 6.5
Last 10 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
UNDER 6.5STAKE
72%
AST
UNDER 2.5STAKE
69%
REB
UNDER 2.5STAKE
80%
STL
OVER 0.5STAKE
58%
P+R
UNDER 8.5STAKE
74%
P+A
UNDER 8.5STAKE
78%
R+A
UNDER 3.5STAKE
82%
Home vs Away
Home
Away
PPG
4.5
3.6
RPG
0.9
0.8
APG
1.0
1.1
vs MIN (H2H)10 games
PPG
6.3
RPG
1.4
APG
2.2
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 4 | 6 | 50% | +9.5% | medium |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 3 | 6 | 50% | +9.5% | medium |
| Bogdan Bogdanović | 2 | 5 | 100% | +26.2% | low |
| Jordan Goodwin | 3 | 5 | 0% |
Holiday’s expanded role still points to a low-scoring, low-ceiling night
Aaron Holiday’s season profile is still modest at 5.5 points, 1.0 assists, and 0.9 rebounds in 13.2 MPG, and his recent form hasn’t meaningfully changed that baseline. The absence of Fred VanVleet can help keep him in the rotation, but his last-10 production is still just 4.6 PPG and 1.3 APG, while Houston’s pace and Minnesota’s scoring suppression make it tougher to expect a spike. He has done a bit better in the matchup history at 6.3 PPG and 2.2 APG over 10 games, but the current usage and minute ceiling still lean conservative.
Stat Trends
PPG
4.8(↓ from 5.5)
APG
2.0(↑ from 1.0)
RPG
0.6(↓ from 0.9)
Key Matchup
No specific defender matchup data is available; key_defenders are listed, but the only usable takeaway is that no single defender profile points to a major upside boost. Minnesota’s team defense context also matters here, with a 114.45 defensive rating and -0.219 scoring suppression.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Holiday▼ | Points | 6.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% | 3 | ✓ |
Aaron Holiday▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 69%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
Aaron Holiday▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | UNDER | 80%HIGH | — | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
Aaron Holiday▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
Aaron Holiday▼ | P+R | 8.5 | UNDER | 74%HIGH | 2/2 | 90% | 5 | ✓ |
Aaron Holiday▼ | P+A | 8.5 | UNDER | 78%HIGH | 2/2 | 70% | 4 | ✓ |
Aaron Holiday▼ | R+A | 3.5 | UNDER | 82%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% | 3 | ✓ |
ML Scout Analysis
PRA8.5UNDER14%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x7/1450%▼
PTS6UNDER24%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x5/1436%▼
AST2UNDER16%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x5/1436%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼
P+R7OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x7/1450%▼
REB1OVER40%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x6/1443%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼
3PA3UNDER37%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)4/1429%▼
R+A3OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x7/1450%▼
P+A7OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x7/1450%▼
3PM1OVER15%gbt_three_pmAvoid (6/20)OVER 2x6/1443%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼
Featured Pick
Aaron Holiday
Rebounds UNDER 2.5HIGH
This is the cleanest edge because Holiday’s season average is 0.9 rebounds and his last-10 is 0.8, far below the line. The absences and matchup do not create enough rebounding upside to justify a move toward 3 or more.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.