Ryan Nembhard▲

DAL · PG

PPG

6.4

RPG

1.9

APG

5.0

L5 PPG

7.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.2

6.4

7.6

RPG+1.1

1.9

3.0

APG+1.8

5.0

6.8

SPG+0.4

0.4

0.8

BPG0.0

0.0

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 5 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 2 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 0 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 0 pts

CLE

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CLE: 8 pts

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 11 pts

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 2 pts

ATL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs ATL: 8 pts

LAC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAC: 13 pts

GSW

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs GSW: 4 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5STAKE

78%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

72%

AST

OVER 6.5STAKE

61%

3PM

OVER 0.5

57%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

55%

OVER 1.5

59%

PRA

UNDER 21

66%

P+A

OVER 17.5STAKE

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.6

3.6

RPG

1.9

2.1

APG

5.8

3.4

vs DEN (H2H)3 games

PPG

14.7

RPG

3.0

APG

7.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Walter Clayton Jr.	4	11	50%	-3.5%	medium
Tim Hardaway Jr.	4	9	20%	-21.0%	medium
Isaiah Collier	4	9	50%	-1.0%	medium
Spencer Jones	4	8	83%

Nembhard’s assist role stays elevated, but scoring remains fragile

Ryan Nembhard is trending up in playing time, with his last-5 minutes at 24.8 compared to 18.9 for the season, and his production has followed on the passing side with 6.8 assists over that span. The absence list on Dallas is meaningful, especially with D'Angelo Russell and Kyrie Irving both out, which supports a heavier ball-handling load and helps his assist outlook. Scoring is less stable: he has only 6.4 PPG for the season and just 5.3 across the last 10, while the Nuggets allow a 116.76 defensive rating and play at a 100 pace, which keeps the ceiling modest. His head-to-head line against Denver is strong at 14.666666666666666 PPG and 7 APG in 27.666666666666668 MPG, but the current role and market still point to a more conservative projection.

Stat Trends

PPG

7.6(↑ from 6.4)

APG

6.8(↑ from 5.0)

MPG

24.8(↑ from 18.9)

Key Matchup

Key defender matchup data is limited here, so there is no specific defender matchup data. The Nuggets profile shows a 116.76 defensive rating, 100 pace, and a 0.301 scoring suppression mark, which suggests a controlled scoring environment overall.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ryan Nembhard▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	90%	4	✓
Ryan Nembhard▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	70%	0	✓
Ryan Nembhard▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	4	✗
Ryan Nembhard▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Ryan Nembhard▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Ryan Nembhard▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Ryan Nembhard▼	PRA	21	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	8	✓
Ryan Nembhard▼	P+A	17.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	8	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A11UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)8/1747%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

R+A8UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)7/1741%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R8.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x9/1753%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

Featured Pick

Ryan Nembhard

Points UNDER 11.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season mean is 6.4 PPG, the last-10 is 5.3, and even the last-5 surge only reaches 7.6. The market line of 11.5 is well above both his season and recent production, making the under the most supported play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Tim Hardaway Jr.	4	9	2	20%	20%
Spencer Jones	4	8	7	67%	83%
Cameron Johnson	3	4	3	50%	75%
Jamal Murray	4	4	19	57%	68%
Bruce Brown	4	3	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 11.578%HIGH

He averages 6.4 PPG for the season and 5.3 over the last 10, well below 11.5. The last-5 bump to 7.6 is not enough to outweigh the season baseline, especially with a high-variance scoring profile.

reboundsUNDER 3.572%HIGH

Season rebounds are 1.9 and last-10 is 2.2, both far under 3.5. Even with recent minutes up, this remains a thin rebound lane for him.

assistsOVER 6.561%MEDIUM

He is averaging 5.0 APG on the season and 6.8 over the last 5, with 24.8 MPG in that stretch. The Dallas absences, including D'Angelo Russell and Kyrie Irving, support a higher playmaking load.

threesOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.84 made threes per game for the season and 0.8 recently, so 0.5 is a low bar. The variance is moderate, but the volume is usually enough for a make.

stealsOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

Season steals are 0.4, but last-5 is 0.8 and his away mean is 0.8. This is a volatile category, but the recent uptick gives the over some appeal.

turnoversOVER 1.559%MEDIUM

His recent turnover numbers are manageable, but the increased ball-handling role and 5.0 season APG point to more possession responsibility. With extra creation duties, 1.5 is a reasonable over target.

praUNDER 2166%MEDIUM

His season baseline projects to a total below this combination, and combo props are higher variance. The recent assist surge helps, but the scoring and rebounding floors keep the under viable.

paOVER 17.558%MEDIUM

He averages 6.4 points and 5.0 assists for 11.4 PA on the season, with recent minutes and assists both trending up. The current role increase makes this more reachable than his scoring prop.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS