AI Model:

P.J. Washington▼

DAL · PF

PPG

14.3

RPG

7.0

APG

1.8

L5 PPG

18.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.9

14.3

18.2

RPG+0.2

7.0

7.2

APG-0.4

1.8

1.4

SPG+1.0

1.0

2.0

BPG-0.5

1.1

0.6

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

ORL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs ORL: 18 pts

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 5 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 9 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 7 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 12 pts

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 20 pts

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 18 pts

ATL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs ATL: 23 pts

LAC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAC: 21 pts

GSW

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs GSW: 9 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

83%

REB

OVER 6.5FANDUEL

61%

AST

UNDER 1.5

64%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

STL

OVER 1

58%

BLK

UNDER 1

63%

STL+BLK

OVER 2

59%

OVER 1

56%

PRA

UNDER 22

58%

P+R

UNDER 21.5

60%

UNDER 0.5

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.6

13.3

RPG

6.8

6.4

APG

1.6

1.9

vs DEN (H2H)13 games

PPG

11.8

RPG

7.6

APG

2.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kevin Durant	4	21	52%	+5.0%	medium
LeBron James	3	17	58%	+7.6%	medium
Zion Williamson	3	15	77%	+31.9%	medium
Julius Randle	3	14	36%

Points are pricey, rebounds and stocks have steadier value

P.J. Washington is averaging 14.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 1.8 APG on 31.2 MPG this season, with his last 10 settling at 14.2 PPG and 6.9 RPG. His last 5 scoring spike to 18.2 PPG looks strong, but it is well above his season mean and comes with a down trend overall, so regression is a real risk. The value data leans clearly to the under on points at every listed book, while rebounds sit close to his season baseline and remain the cleaner angle. With several teammate absences on Dallas, his role is stable enough to keep rebounds, threes, and defensive stats in play without forcing a points over.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.2(↑ from 14.3)

RPG

7.2(→ from 7.0)

APG

1.4(↓ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed key defenders, and the opponent defense profile shows a 116.76 defensive rating with a 0.301 scoring suppression figure. Denver's 100 pace is neutral, so the matchup context does not strongly boost scoring upside.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
P.J. Washington▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	83%HIGH	1/2	50%		19	✗
P.J. Washington▼	Rebounds	6.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	FLIP	15	✓
P.J. Washington▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	FLIP	1	✓
P.J. Washington▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	FLIP	1	✗
P.J. Washington▼	Steals	1	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	30%		0	✗
P.J. Washington▼	Blocks	1	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	90%		1	✗
P.J. Washington▼	STL+BLK	2	OVER	59%MEDIUM	—	30%		1	✗
P.J. Washington▼	Turnovers	1	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	20%		0	✗
P.J. Washington▼	PRA	22	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	22→23.5	35	✗
P.J. Washington▼	P+R	21.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	FLIP	34	✗
P.J. Washington▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

AST1.5UNDER36%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

PRA21.5OVER16%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

PTS13.5UNDER8%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

P+R21OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A15.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

REB6.5UNDER16%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PM1.5UNDER4%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

P.J. Washington

Points UNDER 14.5HIGH

This is the clearest value on the board: the DraftKings line is 14.5, his season average is 14.3, and the provided value data says UNDER has a 10.6% edge with a 19.22 EV per 100. His last 10 is also only 14.2 PPG, so the market is not giving much cushion for the recent 18.2-point last-5 spike.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jamal Murray	2	5	20	73%	82%
Spencer Jones	2	5	0	0%	0%
Peyton Watson	2	4	15	83%	100%
Aaron Gordon	1	3	5	100%	150%
Tim Hardaway Jr.	2	2	3	50%	75%

pointsUNDER 14.583%HIGH

His season mean is 14.3 PPG and last 10 is 14.2, while the value data shows UNDER as the best side at DraftKings with a 10.6% edge. The last 5 at 18.2 is above season by 27%, which raises regression risk.

reboundsOVER 6.561%MEDIUM

He is averaging 7.0 RPG on the season and 6.9 RPG over the last 10, both above the 6.5 line. The value data also shows OVER as the best side at FanDuel with a 7.8% edge.

assistsUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.8 APG and last 10 is 1.5 APG, but the category is volatile with a 1.29 season standard deviation. With no sportsbook assist line provided, a projected 1.5 line makes the under the more conservative call.

threesOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.33 made threes on the season and 1.8 over the last 20, so the volume supports a modest over lean. The edge is small, so confidence stays limited.

stealsOVER 158%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 SPG on the season and 1.0 in home splits, with 2.0 SPG over the last 5. A projected 1.0 line is playable, but steals carry variance.

blocksUNDER 163%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 BPG on the season, but only 0.6 over the last 5 and 0.6 over the last 10. With no strong recent block surge, the under is the safer read at a projected 1.0 line.

stocksOVER 259%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.1 and last 10 is 2.0, so a 2.0 line is right in range. The category is volatile, but the baseline support is there.

turnoversOVER 156%MEDIUM

He is at 1.1 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 1.0 on the season, so a 1.0 projected line is live for the over. Recent game logs include multiple zero-turnover outings, so confidence remains modest.

praUNDER 2258%MEDIUM

His season averages sum to 23.9 PRA, but combo props are high-variance and the recent scoring trend is not fully stable. A projected 22.0 line makes the under the more conservative side.

prUNDER 21.560%MEDIUM

He averages 21.3 points plus rebounds on the season, and the points under has the strongest book-supported edge. With rebound stability but scoring regression risk, the under is preferred.

double_doubleUNDER 0.562%MEDIUM

He has strong rebound support, but his 1.8 APG and 14.3 PPG season profile do not consistently suggest double-double frequency. This is still a lower-probability outcome than the market would need at a 0.5 line.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS