AI Model:

Jamal Murray▲

DEN · PG

PPG

25.1

RPG

4.3

APG

7.1

L5 PPG

21.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.1

25.1

21.0

RPG+0.1

4.3

4.4

APG-0.1

7.1

7.0

SPG-0.5

0.9

0.4

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 25.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

25.5

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 12 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 21 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 30 pts

SAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs SAS: 39 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 5 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 12 pts

MEM

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MEM: 19 pts

TOR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs TOR: 31 pts

POR

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs POR: 22 pts

PHX

2026-03-24

2026-03-24 vs PHX: 21 pts

Over 25.5

Under 25.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 25.5STAKE

77%

AST

UNDER 8.5STAKE

68%

REB

OVER 3.5STAKE

58%

3PM

OVER 2.5STAKE

56%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

55%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

84%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

62%

OVER 2

57%

PRA

UNDER 37

66%

P+A

UNDER 33.5STAKE

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.2

25.5

RPG

3.9

5.1

APG

5.4

6.7

vs DAL (H2H)14 games

PPG

20.6

RPG

3.1

APG

6.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Amen Thompson	4	15	56%	+7.3%	medium
Josh Okogie	4	13	75%	+18.4%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	4	13	71%	+16.0%	medium
Dennis Schröder	4	11	40%

Murray’s scoring is trending down, but the matchup and missing Mavericks guards keep his assist outlook playable

Jamal Murray’s season line is strong at 25.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG, and 7.1 APG over 35 games, but his recent scoring has cooled to 21.0 PPG over the last 5 and 21.2 over the last 10. His assist profile is steadier, with 7.0 APG in the last 5 and 6.1 in the last 10, while his home scoring sits lower at 20.2 PPG compared to 25.5 away. The opponent context helps passing lanes with D'Angelo Russell, Kyrie Irving, and Dereck Lively II all out, but the value data still leans under on points at the current number.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.0(↓ from 25.1)

APG

7.0(→ from 7.1)

RPG

4.4(→ from 4.3)

Key Matchup

Opponent absences include D'Angelo Russell, Kyrie Irving, and Dereck Lively II, which improves the environment for Murray's creation and scoring. No specific defender matchup data is available from the provided key defenders, so the edge comes more from overall opponent availability than a named on-ball matchup.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Jamal Murray▼	Points	25.5	UNDER	77%HIGH	2/2	70%		53	✗
Jamal Murray▼	Assists	8.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	90%		4	✓
Jamal Murray▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		6	✓
Jamal Murray▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	FLIP	9	✓
Jamal Murray▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	50%		0	✗
Jamal Murray▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	—	70%		0	✓
Jamal Murray▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	90%		0	✓
Jamal Murray▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	10%	FLIP	4	✓
Jamal Murray▼	PRA	37	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	—	63	✗
Jamal Murray▼	P+A	33.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		57	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R30.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

P+A33UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

R+A11UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Jamal Murray

Points UNDER 25.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data: his season mean is 25.1, but his last 5 is 21.0 and last 10 is 21.2, both clearly below the line. The value-prop table also consistently flags the under on points across multiple books, with the strongest confirmed edges on the lower numbers.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Naji Marshall	4	9	6	33%	33%
Max Christie	2	8	6	67%	100%
Jaden Hardy	2	6	4	40%	40%
Cooper Flagg	4	6	16	50%	50%
Ryan Nembhard	4	6	10	67%	83%

pointsUNDER 25.577%HIGH

His season mean is 25.06, but the last 5 is only 21.0 and the last 10 is 21.2, so the current 25.5 line is above his recent baseline. The value card also shows a clear under lean on points at 24.5 and 23.5, reinforcing a cautious stance.

assistsUNDER 8.568%MEDIUM

Murray averages 7.13 assists for the season and 6.1 over the last 10, both below 8.5. Even with the opponent absences, this line sits well above his normal output and requires a strong assist spike.

reboundsOVER 3.558%MEDIUM

He averages 4.34 rebounds on the season and 4.4 over the last 5, so 3.5 is a modest threshold. The away split is 5.1 rebounds, which supports a slight over lean despite the home split being 3.9.

threesOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

Murray averages 3.07 threes per game on the season and 1.9 over the last 10, so the recent dip is notable but the full-season volume still clears 2.5. His away mean is 3.19, which adds a small boost if minutes hold.

stealsOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals on the season and 0.8 over the last 20, so 0.5 is a reachable floor. This is still a low-confidence category because the last 5 dropped to 0.4.

blocksUNDER 0.584%HIGH

Murray averages only 0.3 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. With that low baseline, 0.5 is a strong under.

stocksUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.24 and the last 10 is 0.9, so 1.5 is above both marks. This is a volatile combo stat, so confidence stays moderate.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

He has 2.1 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 1.6 over the last 5, making 2.0 a reasonable median projection. The recent sample is still close enough to keep this slightly on the over side.

praUNDER 3766%MEDIUM

His season PRA projects to 36.5 using 25.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 7.1 assists, while the recent scoring drop pulls the practical expectation lower. Because combo props carry extra variance, the under is the safer side.

paUNDER 33.560%MEDIUM

Season PA is 32.2 and recent PA is 27.1 using the provided last-10 scoring and assists context, which sits below 33.5. The market line is high enough that a median outcome leans under.

timelineUNDER 25.5 PTS