AI Model:

Cooper Flagg—

DAL · PG

PPG

20.3

RPG

6.5

APG

4.7

L5 PPG

23.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.7

20.3

23.0

RPG+0.1

6.5

6.6

APG+3.3

4.7

8.0

SPG+0.1

1.1

1.2

BPG+0.9

0.9

1.8

UNDER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

21.5

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 16 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 17 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 13 pts

CLE

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CLE: 25 pts

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 27 pts

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 21 pts

ATL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs ATL: 17 pts

LAC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAC: 18 pts

GSW

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs GSW: 32 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

REB

UNDER 7.5STAKE

63%

AST

OVER 5.5STAKE

68%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

71%

BLK

UNDER 1.5STAKE

74%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

60%

OVER 3.5

61%

P+A

UNDER 27.5STAKE

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

25.7

19.9

RPG

6.3

7.3

APG

5.2

5.6

vs DEN (H2H)3 games

PPG

21.0

RPG

6.0

APG

4.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Herbert Jones	4	20	65%	+11.4%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	17	47%	-7.4%	medium
Tari Eason	3	14	46%	-14.1%	medium
Peyton Watson	4	12	75%

Flagg’s usage is elevated, but the points line still looks a touch high

Cooper Flagg is in solid form overall, averaging 20.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and 4.7 APG on the season, with his last 5 jumping to 23.0 PPG and 8.0 APG. The added absences on Dallas' side clearly support a bigger offensive role, but his last 5 scoring is still above his season mean, so regression risk remains. Against this opponent, he has averaged 21 PPG, 6 RPG, and 4 APG in 3 meetings, while the market is pricing him around the 22.5 point range. The matchup environment is not especially favorable for extra scoring, so the safer angle is to lean under on the main points number and be selective on the combo props.

Stat Trends

PPG

23.0(↑ from 20.3)

RPG

6.6(→ from 6.5)

APG

8.0(↑ from 4.7)

Stocks

3.0(↑ from 2.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The opponent defense shows a 116.76 defensive rating, pace of 100, and a scoring suppression figure of 0.301, which leans more toward controlled production than an easy scoring environment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Cooper Flagg▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	70%	21.5→22.5	26	✗
Cooper Flagg▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		8	✗
Cooper Flagg▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		7	✓
Cooper Flagg▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	90%	—	1	✓
Cooper Flagg▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	—	60%		2	✗
Cooper Flagg▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	60%		1	✓
Cooper Flagg▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	FLIP	3	✗
Cooper Flagg▼	Turnovers	3.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	40%		0	✗
Cooper Flagg▼	P+A	27.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	FLIP	33	✗

ML Scout Analysis

R+A12OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

PTS27.5UNDER22%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x4/2020%+28.1% edgeLine moved +1.0; Value edge shifted +0.118; Scorecard changed +4.0▼

BLK0.5OVER17%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x13/2065%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved HIGH to LOW; Line nudged -0.5▼

PRA42.5UNDER14%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x4/2020%+22.6% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Line moved +2.0; Value edge changed +0.075▼

AST5.5UNDER18%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

STL1.5UNDER32%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x10/2050%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+A29UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x7/2035%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

REB6.5UNDER20%logisticAvoid (7/20)8/2040%+10.3% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

3PM1.5UNDER24%logisticAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x5/2025%+13.3% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R30UNDER0%logisticAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x7/2035%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

Featured Pick

Cooper Flagg

Points UNDER 21.5HIGH

The strongest value signal on the slate is the points under: FanDuel, DraftKings, and other books all show the UNDER as the best side at 21.5 with edges around 17.2% to 19.1%. His season scoring average is 20.3 PPG, and while the last 5 is hotter at 23.0, that recent spike sits above his baseline and is a reasonable regression spot.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Peyton Watson	4	12	6	75%	75%
Spencer Jones	4	11	13	86%	93%
Cameron Johnson	3	7	4	33%	33%
Bruce Brown	4	5	4	40%	40%
Jamal Murray	4	3	10	50%	56%

pointsUNDER 21.572%HIGH

His season mean is 20.3 PPG and the value data shows the UNDER as the best side at 21.5 with a 19.1% edge at FanDuel and 17.9% edge at several books. The last 5 at 23.0 is above season average, so this is a good spot to fade a small scoring surge rather than chase it.

reboundsUNDER 7.563%MEDIUM

He averages 6.5 RPG for the season and 6.6 over the last 5, both below 7.5. The value card also shows UNDER as the best side on multiple books, and the recent rebound profile does not suggest a strong push above the number.

assistsOVER 5.568%MEDIUM

His season assists are 4.7, but the last 5 has jumped to 8.0 and the last 10 is 6.9, showing a real recent playmaking spike. With Dallas missing multiple rotation pieces including Kyrie Irving and D'Angelo Russell, the usage and creation burden supports the OVER despite the higher variance.

threesUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

He averages just 0.98 made threes on the season and only 0.6 over the last 5, with a 0.29 three-point percentage. The market line at 1.5 is above his typical make rate, and the recent trend does not justify an OVER.

stealsUNDER 1.571%HIGH

His season steals average is 1.1, but the line is 1.5 and his last 10 is 0.9. He can contribute defensively, yet the number is still a bit aggressive relative to his baseline.

blocksUNDER 1.574%HIGH

Season average is 0.9 blocks and the recent 5 is 1.8, but that recent spike is volatile and the prop line is still 1.5. Given the standard deviation profile and the historical mean, the under is the more conservative side.

stocksUNDER 2.560%MEDIUM

He averages 2.08 stocks on the season and 2.2 over the last 10, so this is around his center of gravity rather than a clear over. Because combo volatility is high, the safer lean is under if the market posts a number above his typical range.

turnoversOVER 3.561%MEDIUM

He is turning it over 4.4 times per game over the last 5 and 3.5 over the last 10, both elevated relative to his season role. The recent usage spike and increased creation responsibility make an over on turnovers reasonable.

paUNDER 27.558%MEDIUM

His season PRA-style creation is not enough to make 27.5 PA an automatic over, and his season assists are still only 4.7. The recent assist surge helps, but this combo prop carries extra variance and is better treated conservatively.

timelineUNDER 21.5 PTS