AI Model:

Christian Braun▼

DEN · SG

PPG

11.8

RPG

4.9

APG

2.9

L5 PPG

17.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.6

11.8

17.4

RPG+0.1

4.9

5.0

APG-0.3

2.9

2.6

SPG+0.3

0.7

1.0

BPG-0.3

0.3

0.0

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 7 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 4 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 19 pts

SAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs SAS: 11 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 12 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 22 pts

MEM

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MEM: 26 pts

TOR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs TOR: 11 pts

POR

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs POR: 15 pts

PHX

2026-03-24

2026-03-24 vs PHX: 13 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 5.5BETMGM

61%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.4

13.6

RPG

5.3

5.8

APG

3.0

3.1

vs DAL (H2H)11 games

PPG

8.1

RPG

3.7

APG

0.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Deni Avdija	4	20	50%	-1.5%	medium
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	2	19	57%	+1.8%	low
Luka Dončić	2	18	57%	-1.5%	low
Brandin Podziemski	4	15	50%

Braun’s scoring has popped lately, but the market still leans under 12.5

Christian Braun is averaging 11.8 PPG on the season, but his last 5 have jumped to 17.4 PPG, which is well above his baseline and sets up regression risk. His recent workload is stable at 32.4-32.8 MPG, and the home split is stronger than his season mark at 14.4 PPG at home versus 13.6 away. Against this opponent he has historically produced just 8.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and 0.7 APG in 11 games, which keeps the ceiling in check even with the recent hot stretch.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.4(↑ from 11.8)

RPG

5.0(→ from 4.9)

APG

2.6(↓ from 2.9)

Key Matchup

no specific defender matchup data. The opponent profile shows a 119.04 defensive rating and a scoring suppression mark of 0.813, which supports a conservative scoring projection even with several opponent absences listed.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Christian Braun▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	11.8→12.5	11	✓
Christian Braun▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	FLIP	3	✓
Christian Braun▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	FLIP	4	✗
Christian Braun▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	FLIP	1	✓
Christian Braun▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	80%	FLIP	0	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R19.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

P+A16.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

R+A8UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Christian Braun

Points UNDER 12.5HIGH

This is the clearest play in the data: the best edge is 13.8% at DraftKings, with our model giving the UNDER a 68.3% win probability. Braun’s season scoring baseline is 11.8 PPG, and his 11-game history vs this opponent is only 8.1 PPG, so the recent hot stretch looks more likely to cool off than sustain.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Naji Marshall	1	3	9	75%	75%
Cooper Flagg	1	2	0	0%	0%
Brandon Williams	1	2	0	0%	0%
Max Christie	1	1	0	0%	0%
P.J. Washington	1	1	3	100%	150%

pointsUNDER 12.568%MEDIUM

The value data shows the UNDER as the best side with a 13.8% edge and 25.25 EV per 100. His season mean is 11.76, and his vs-opponent scoring history is only 8.09 PPG in 11 games, which outweighs the recent 17.4 PPG spike.

reboundsUNDER 5.561%MEDIUM

He averages 4.89 rebounds for the season and 5.2 over the last 10, but the edge is still on the UNDER at 6.2%. With only a modest rebound profile and no major matchup-driven rebounding boost in the data, 5.5 is a fair ceiling.

assistsUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

Braun’s season assist average is 2.86, while the recent mean is 2.8, so this is close to the number but not enough to justify an OVER. The best available edge is still tiny on the UNDER, and his opponent history shows just 0.73 APG across 11 meetings.

threesUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.95 made threes per game on the season, and his recent 1.3 is not enough to clear a 1.5 line confidently. The value board also points to the UNDER across books, with the strongest number showing a positive edge.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.97 and recent mean is 1.1, both below a 1.5 threshold. Even though away games are better for stocks at 1.25, the standard deviation is large, so this stays an UNDER lean.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS